Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
RichM

Lovely Table From Financial Times

Recommended Posts

Guest Charlie The Tramp
Come Q1 2006, we will be back to YoY rises of 4 or 5%.

I hope you are right.

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Check this beauty out:

FT House Price Index

Just makes it clear how quickly the YoY inflation is decelerating.

The best is yet to come...

If you slam the brakes on, your car will screech to a halt. It won't

start going backwards though... (OK OK, you could be on a hill :-))

To me, the table shows that the MoM changes are not negative

enough overall to result in large nominal YoY falls if they continue that

way.

However, I'm still confident of reasonable nominal YoY falls due

to three things

- sentiment change as YoY goes sometimes a little negative

- sentiment changes and disposable income reductions due to the steadily worsening economic picture

- my local (northeast) time-on-market and rising supply figures

Pent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why do people take any notice of any of the recent reports when its plain to see with your own eyes advertised prices are being reduced and alot of properties are now being sold under the asking price. You can quote Halifax/Nationwide until the cows come home apollo, we all know its a load of twaddle.

You expect them to tell the truth when theres billions of pounds at stake, gimme a break.....

*sigh*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What about this little beauty...

table.jpg

Look at the table though, for the whole of 2005 there have been no significant monthly rises more than 0.1 to 0.2 %. The 3% moving annual average is still including monthly figures from the back end of 2004.

When these fall out in Feb 2006, we will have a broadly 0% annual figure, at which point real panic will set in.

:ph34r:

The annual figure is not showing what is happening now; that is what is important.

Edited by john_d_uk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess you've heard of the ripple effect as you have considerable experience in the market, albeit it slightly skewed.

Sooner or later Manchester will be joining the party, to expect anything else is unrealistic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

I keep telling you apollo that a number of properties in south manchester are lingering on the books and not shifting. The drive to work reveals an increase in properties with TWO for sale boards!

If your property is on the market for more than a couple of months you are not asking the market price, and you are not serious about selling. Still, I'm happy for you to spend £300K in Withington if that's what you want to do...

You're right about some minging properties: In which case they should be pricing well-down, as should the cheeky buggers in places like Adswood who are asking near-Wilmslow prices.

Game on.

:P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

London is already into year-on-year declines.

Halifax Greater London seasonally adjusted index for Q2 2004 stood at 614.9, by Q2 2005 this was at 600.1 - a fall of 2.4%. Let's see what the Q3 data brings - should be out soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A mate of mine acknowledges house prices are falling, and is still upgrading from a 1 bed flat in Brixton to a 4-bed flat in the same.

Madness I tell you, it's all madness!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
err... in case you hadn't noticed I do look at local prices and local sales. What do you think I've been doing in my Manchester Analysis thread on the "local discussion" board? Prices here are not being reduced (except the odd one or two but you always get them even in boom times, esp if the property is minging). So I can only go by what I see with my own eyes, and the various regional reports just confirms it for me (retrospectively). And also I checked the ourproperty.co.uk prices and the sales are coming thick and fast. Average two bed apt here is now 5% more expensive than it was at the start of the year. That's not huge but it's not dropping either.

If there is anyone on this forum that talks out of their ars* the most. It's you. There are loads of falls in Manchester. Only the very best property is selling. If you want to sell now the property in Manchester has to be in a good position or cheap.

Talk out of your ars* on another forum. You probably think United are still the best team in the premiership. Loser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This has been covered in other threads - previous housing market data (both in booms and crashes) have all shown dicrepancies with other issued data or aparent reverse trend monthly or quarterly movements and regional figures need to be read with national ones to give context and direction.

As I pointed out before, by way of historic comparison, in Q3 1989, the North West prices were still rising at 10.8% whilst London was decreasing 1.6%

see http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/downloads/...al_Regional.xls

It is not inconsistent with a looming HPC for some regions to lag (and still be increasing for a year or more) whilst other start to fall. The nationwide indices will lag the real pace of the staggered regional (as usual) fall in prices.

Edited by Tempest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.