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HonestEA -

Surprisingly Busier Times At The Ea Office Indeed

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The last 3 weeks have been the busiest and most productive of the year so far at my office. I work in the South East in the North Kent area, still in commuting range but well outside the Prime London Market.

This is a not very affluent area where the best earners are still prepared to get on the train for over an hour each way to chase the London coin, but there are precious few well paying local jobs as most of the wealth creating industry is long gone. In this town , entry level 2 bed coronation street style 2 up 2 down freehold houses can be bought for around 100K and rent consistently at £650 pcm offering approximately 7% gross yeild before expenses. 70% of the rental market is housing benefit subsidised which efffectively puts a glass floor under house prices since no private landlord is going to undercut the statutory housing benefit rate as they always have an immediate tennant of last resort.

With entry level houses at 100K which has not changed significantly in 12 months, new build flats have taken a hammering with the the 2 bed flats at 95K - 100K and the 1 beds at 75K - 80K with absolutely loads on the market and only the occasional repo that undercuts the crowd actually selling. The numbers being sold in the leasehold market are very small.

Of our 20 sales so far this month 14 have been lower quartile by value to BTL investors. Only 4 of these vendors made an onward purchase however. The rest either were disposals for the usual array of life circumstances of the people concerned or they were selling to go into rented due financial pressures starting to hit home. This has caused a weird distortion in the market as there is an absolute glut of 3 bed semis/ detached on the market (nearly 200) of which only a handful are selling as hardly anyone is deciding that now is a good time to put 50K on the mortgage to get an extra bedroom. The lower quartile (sub 125K freehold stuff) is selling quickly and sometimes with multiple offers. This is not the sign of a healthy market.

Selling demand is similarly unbalanced. 80% of our valuation requests are from people looking to downsize. Common sense will tell you that 80% cannot downsize successfully as that only leaves 20% looking to trade up which isn't going to end well and must put eventual downward pressure on the mid market as progressively more sellers on the margin become more desperate to sell. The recent hikes in the cost of living are really starting to impact people on stagnant wages and are having the same effect as a hike in interest rates albeit more slowly as the assault on disposable incomes is less immediately noticable than a sudden spike in mortgage payments. The effect is that very gradually the number of true sellers in the market is starting to increase. For every motivated true seller prepared to meet the market where it is today , there are however another 4 who are prepared to wait until the end of time until they get "their price" and who are consequently wasting everyones time and giving false hope to people who genuinely need to sell.

So who are all these BTL investors buying up all the entry level houses? They are NOT the highly leveraged BTL buyers of the boom. They are mainly middle class people from more affluent parts of Kent making their first foray into BTL , the majority of them are pure cash buyers or very modest LTV. They are not very experienced at it and it can be mildy entertaining to show a middle class first BTletter around a house in an area they previously would never be seen dead in just for the reaction you get. These are genuinely decent people who are parking their cash in property as the least worst option and they are not expecting capital gain. They have given up hope that a reasonable return on cash savings will be offered anytime soon and are acting accordingly. All the time there are a steady stream of such people the market has effectively bottomed in this locality. Further rises in the cost of living will simply harden this trend until the supply of cash rich middle class buyers runs out but there seems no immediate prospect of that based on local experience at the moment.

So the bottom of the market locally looks to have already been found at current interest rates, however the middle and top of the market is taking far longer to adjust in proportion. The entry level houses have lost 25% from peak , the rest of the market is barely 10% down but is flooded with oversupply. The middle ranking properties need to drop another 15% from todays prices in order for a trade up move to look attractive and be affordable if you are lucky enough to retain secure employment. This looks an entirely plausable outcome based upon current sales volume and activity levels.

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gosh, it sounds unbelievable!

The last 3 weeks have been the busiest and most productive of the year so far at my office. I work in the South East in the North Kent area, still in commuting range but well outside the Prime London Market.

This is a not very affluent area where the best earners are still prepared to get on the train for over an hour each way to chase the London coin, but there are precious few well paying local jobs as most of the wealth creating industry is long gone. In this town , entry level 2 bed coronation street style 2 up 2 down freehold houses can be bought for around 100K and rent consistently at £650 pcm offering approximately 7% gross yeild before expenses. 70% of the rental market is housing benefit subsidised which efffectively puts a glass floor under house prices since no private landlord is going to undercut the statutory housing benefit rate as they always have an immediate tennant of last resort.

With entry level houses at 100K which has not changed significantly in 12 months, new build flats have taken a hammering with the the 2 bed flats at 95K - 100K and the 1 beds at 75K - 80K with absolutely loads on the market and only the occasional repo that undercuts the crowd actually selling. The numbers being sold in the leasehold market are very small.

Of our 20 sales so far this month 14 have been lower quartile by value to BTL investors. Only 4 of these vendors made an onward purchase however. The rest either were disposals for the usual array of life circumstances of the people concerned or they were selling to go into rented due financial pressures starting to hit home. This has caused a weird distortion in the market as there is an absolute glut of 3 bed semis/ detached on the market (nearly 200) of which only a handful are selling as hardly anyone is deciding that now is a good time to put 50K on the mortgage to get an extra bedroom. The lower quartile (sub 125K freehold stuff) is selling quickly and sometimes with multiple offers. This is not the sign of a healthy market.

Selling demand is similarly unbalanced. 80% of our valuation requests are from people looking to downsize. Common sense will tell you that 80% cannot downsize successfully as that only leaves 20% looking to trade up which isn't going to end well and must put eventual downward pressure on the mid market as progressively more sellers on the margin become more desperate to sell. The recent hikes in the cost of living are really starting to impact people on stagnant wages and are having the same effect as a hike in interest rates albeit more slowly as the assault on disposable incomes is less immediately noticable than a sudden spike in mortgage payments. The effect is that very gradually the number of true sellers in the market is starting to increase. For every motivated true seller prepared to meet the market where it is today , there are however another 4 who are prepared to wait until the end of time until they get "their price" and who are consequently wasting everyones time and giving false hope to people who genuinely need to sell.

So who are all these BTL investors buying up all the entry level houses? They are NOT the highly leveraged BTL buyers of the boom. They are mainly middle class people from more affluent parts of Kent making their first foray into BTL , the majority of them are pure cash buyers or very modest LTV. They are not very experienced at it and it can be mildy entertaining to show a middle class first BTletter around a house in an area they previously would never be seen dead in just for the reaction you get. These are genuinely decent people who are parking their cash in property as the least worst option and they are not expecting capital gain. They have given up hope that a reasonable return on cash savings will be offered anytime soon and are acting accordingly. All the time there are a steady stream of such people the market has effectively bottomed in this locality. Further rises in the cost of living will simply harden this trend until the supply of cash rich middle class buyers runs out but there seems no immediate prospect of that based on local experience at the moment.

So the bottom of the market locally looks to have already been found at current interest rates, however the middle and top of the market is taking far longer to adjust in proportion. The entry level houses have lost 25% from peak , the rest of the market is barely 10% down but is flooded with oversupply. The middle ranking properties need to drop another 15% from todays prices in order for a trade up move to look attractive and be affordable if you are lucky enough to retain secure employment. This looks an entirely plausable outcome based upon current sales volume and activity levels.

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gosh, it sounds unbelievable!

Why do you say that? BTLetters still pricing entry level home buyers out of the market? Sounds very believable when you look at the stats for upturn in BTL mortgages. BTLetters getting advantage over FTBuyers because they can offset interest interest against tax. Government needs to get some balls and up the tax on BTL - not as if they don't need the money.

The floor on rents due to housing benefit also very believable. In fact, I think that part of the rent rises around where I am is due to the mass publicity about HB cuts that opened private landlords', who didn't previously touch the benefits market or know the thresholds, eyes to how much they could charge.

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The last 3 weeks have been the busiest and most productive of the year so far at my office. I work in the South East in the North Kent area, still in commuting range but well outside the Prime London Market.

This is a not very affluent area where the best earners are still prepared to get on the train for over an hour each way to chase the London coin, but there are precious few well paying local jobs as most of the wealth creating industry is long gone. In this town , entry level 2 bed coronation street style 2 up 2 down freehold houses can be bought for around 100K and rent consistently at £650 pcm offering approximately 7% gross yeild before expenses. 70% of the rental market is housing benefit subsidised which efffectively puts a glass floor under house prices since no private landlord is going to undercut the statutory housing benefit rate as they always have an immediate tennant of last resort.

With entry level houses at 100K which has not changed significantly in 12 months, new build flats have taken a hammering with the the 2 bed flats at 95K - 100K and the 1 beds at 75K - 80K with absolutely loads on the market and only the occasional repo that undercuts the crowd actually selling. The numbers being sold in the leasehold market are very small.

Of our 20 sales so far this month 14 have been lower quartile by value to BTL investors. Only 4 of these vendors made an onward purchase however. The rest either were disposals for the usual array of life circumstances of the people concerned or they were selling to go into rented due financial pressures starting to hit home. This has caused a weird distortion in the market as there is an absolute glut of 3 bed semis/ detached on the market (nearly 200) of which only a handful are selling as hardly anyone is deciding that now is a good time to put 50K on the mortgage to get an extra bedroom. The lower quartile (sub 125K freehold stuff) is selling quickly and sometimes with multiple offers. This is not the sign of a healthy market.

Selling demand is similarly unbalanced. 80% of our valuation requests are from people looking to downsize. Common sense will tell you that 80% cannot downsize successfully as that only leaves 20% looking to trade up which isn't going to end well and must put eventual downward pressure on the mid market as progressively more sellers on the margin become more desperate to sell. The recent hikes in the cost of living are really starting to impact people on stagnant wages and are having the same effect as a hike in interest rates albeit more slowly as the assault on disposable incomes is less immediately noticable than a sudden spike in mortgage payments. The effect is that very gradually the number of true sellers in the market is starting to increase. For every motivated true seller prepared to meet the market where it is today , there are however another 4 who are prepared to wait until the end of time until they get "their price" and who are consequently wasting everyones time and giving false hope to people who genuinely need to sell.

So who are all these BTL investors buying up all the entry level houses? They are NOT the highly leveraged BTL buyers of the boom. They are mainly middle class people from more affluent parts of Kent making their first foray into BTL , the majority of them are pure cash buyers or very modest LTV. They are not very experienced at it and it can be mildy entertaining to show a middle class first BTletter around a house in an area they previously would never be seen dead in just for the reaction you get. These are genuinely decent people who are parking their cash in property as the least worst option and they are not expecting capital gain. They have given up hope that a reasonable return on cash savings will be offered anytime soon and are acting accordingly. All the time there are a steady stream of such people the market has effectively bottomed in this locality. Further rises in the cost of living will simply harden this trend until the supply of cash rich middle class buyers runs out but there seems no immediate prospect of that based on local experience at the moment.

So the bottom of the market locally looks to have already been found at current interest rates, however the middle and top of the market is taking far longer to adjust in proportion. The entry level houses have lost 25% from peak , the rest of the market is barely 10% down but is flooded with oversupply. The middle ranking properties need to drop another 15% from todays prices in order for a trade up move to look attractive and be affordable if you are lucky enough to retain secure employment. This looks an entirely plausable outcome based upon current sales volume and activity levels.

Well, there's nowhere safe to park cash.

BTL isn't safe but at least there will always be something left to show for it.

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Interesting on a number of levels...

1) The impact of housing benefit putting a floor in the market is very clear. If only someone who sets HB policy would look at this. While the Wail has a wet dream about the odd Somali in a £2m house, the dull reality is that the really big problem is the hundreds of thousands of people paying through the nose for rented property subsidised by HMG, er, us.

2) These middle class buyers are buying stuff that they wouldn't be seen dead in, and sounds like bottom of the market anonymous stuff that could get pounded. They are viewing it as a safer place to put their cash than the bank. They seem to have no idea that government policy can change. Indeed, whenever the middle class start gaming the government, it is a sign that the game is nearly over.

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MODS: this is a bit more rigorous than most anecdotals, and fascinating reading - maybe promote to main board?

Agreed - it's a useful insight into the state of the market from an insider.

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Excellent, well written and well observed report.

There is, indeed, an abnormal property market at the moment - driven by the free market.

I am Middle Class, with a large savings pot earning very little in the Bank - maybe 3%. I have looked at the BTL market and the properties which offer 7% before expenses seem attrractive.

They also seem like a safe haven for my money - what if the Banks go under? The Compensation arrangements will not be worth the paper they are written on in a crash - I was a part of the Icelandic fiasco where I thought I had lost my money (despite all the Icelandic Government Backed guarantees!) - the Icelandic Government simply walked away from their obligations and promises!

So? I know BTL'ers are given bad press on here - but what would you do given the following situation where a lot of Middle Aged, Middle Class people find themselves in?

1. Rental returns at 7% rather than Bank returns of 3% - on a £200,000 investment, that is a difference of £8,000 a year .... what would you do?

2. Property can be touched, lived in, rented - a Banking crisis can, and will, wipe out your above investment savings of £200,000 ..... what would you do?

3. Pensions are being eroded by huge Banking charges and poor performance - do you want to secure an income for old age (rental income) .... what would you do?

4. Buying property buys you flexibility for the future ... a constant income where no income may come in from anywhere else .... what would you do?

I know that BTL'ers are stepping in and buying up FTB stock - and it is painful to see the young unable to buy because those who can pay the asking can also make money out of doing so ..... but, the points above show why the BTL'ers are doing it and why they shouldn't really be hated for doing as anyone would in their situation.

The single thing which will see the market settle is a rise in Interest Rates. If savers were able to get, say, 8% in a Bank they wouldn't be BTL Landlords ... they would sit on cash. The market would open up for FTB's and with the forced sellers would create a drop in prices of around 25% ..... the market would then free up.

But, the Government has a vested interest in keeping house prices high - it helps convince people to borrow and spend on the basis that their houses are worth more than all their debts ................... it's a house of cards and it needs knocking down by high Interest rates!

Just my humble opinion - I have been a FTB, I have struggled to pay a mortgage when interest rates were 12%, I have been a house mover, I sold and bought in the last House crash of 1990-1995, I now have savings and would be prepared to step into the BTL arena ... I have been from the pennyless to the affluent and all steps between.

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Excellent, well written and well observed report.

I have looked at the BTL market and the properties which offer 7% before expenses seem attrractive.

1. Rental returns at 7% rather than Bank returns of 3% -

'Rental returns at 7% before expenses' appears to have become 'Rental returns of 7%'

Subtract voids, agents fees, maintenance, non-paying tenants, renewals, regulatory expenses, income tax etc - and what is the real rental return?

A spread of NS&I issues, ISA's, 2 and 3 year fixed rate bonds gives me 3.5%-4% net pa - with none of the risks of BTL. Is it really worth the risk for a percent or so better?

And what about liquidity? It can take years to sell in this market.

Edited by juvenal

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So who are all these BTL investors buying up all the entry level houses? They are NOT the highly leveraged BTL buyers of the boom. They are mainly middle class people from more affluent parts of Kent making their first foray into BTL , the majority of them are pure cash buyers or very modest LTV. They are not very experienced at it and it can be mildy entertaining to show a middle class first BTletter around a house in an area they previously would never be seen dead in just for the reaction you get. These are genuinely decent people who are parking their cash in property as the least worst option and they are not expecting capital gain. They have given up hope that a reasonable return on cash savings will be offered anytime soon and are acting accordingly. All the time there are a steady stream of such people the market has effectively bottomed in this locality. Further rises in the cost of living will simply harden this trend until the supply of cash rich middle class buyers runs out but there seems no immediate prospect of that based on local experience at the moment.

My spider sense is telling me that these clueless middle class M&S shoppers are not going to make a huge success of renting to the underclass...

...these are the same kind of people who bought all thise high rise slave boxes that suddenly rose in the north as "BTL investments"

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I am embarrassed to say I allowed a password reset confirmation to be sent to an email address I no longer have access to.

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My spider sense is telling me that these clueless middle class M&S shoppers are not going to make a huge success of renting to the underclass...

...these are the same kind of people who bought all thise high rise slave boxes that suddenly rose in the north as "BTL investments"

Reckon they are desperate or a return on savings, anything to sub the pension a bit more than bank rates - more moral hazard injected into the system by rigging interest rates.

V. interesting hands on report.

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I say its unbelievable because this was not written by an estate agent. Do you think it was?

Why do you say that? BTLetters still pricing entry level home buyers out of the market? Sounds very believable when you look at the stats for upturn in BTL mortgages. BTLetters getting advantage over FTBuyers because they can offset interest interest against tax. Government needs to get some balls and up the tax on BTL - not as if they don't need the money.

The floor on rents due to housing benefit also very believable. In fact, I think that part of the rent rises around where I am is due to the mass publicity about HB cuts that opened private landlords', who didn't previously touch the benefits market or know the thresholds, eyes to how much they could charge.

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meant to ask whether you think the BTL first tiem phenomenon is correlated to the SE with people earning big bucks and being able to cash a house

for example i offer you 22 duncan road leicester

soold at peak for £142,000

http://www.nethousep...it=20&curPage=2

now under offer at £92,000

http://www.rightmove...houses&index=10

'Detailed Description changed: SUMMARYConnells are now in receipt of an offer for the sum of £87,000 £92,000 for 220 Duncan Road, Leicester LE2 8EF. '

propertybee shows it's been on since march at £104,000,so the bank have shown some patience before discovering the market price.that's a 35% off peak move.

have you any contact with other people in the business oop north and the mids as to whether the're experiencign the same thing

Unfortunately I have no contacts in the North. All of my nearly 20 years expereince has been along the North Kent commuter line.

I will say that most of these middle class BTL buyers are reasonably local and have some knowledge ( maybe 20 or so years out of date however) of the areas they are attempting to buy in. The shock comes when they return the the network of streets they bought in 20 - 30 years ago as first time buyers themselves to find a lettings ghetto where 70 out of 100 properties in the road are BTL as opposed to 2 or 3 in a 100 when they were last living there.

This market dynamic should play the same in any town just with different numbers as there are pockets of affluence in the North who will be facing the same poor returns on deposit as their compatriots in the South. Firstly find out what the local statutory housing benefit rate is for a 2 bed place in the locality you are interested in, lets say its £500 pcm for an easy example. Every local authority in the country has a statutory rate for 2 bed , 3bed etc. Extrapolate this x12 will give you £6000 per annum in gross rental income if you have to rent to a social housing tennant as a last resort. This means a cash rich investor who is happy to accept a 7% gross rental yeild (and there appear to be many) would be happy to pay £84500 for the house. Any freehold house that is priced below this glass floor will be bidded back above it. If the housing benefit rate is adjusted in the area either way, entry level houses will move in proportion and the rest of the market will have to adjust over time accordingly. Differentials between house prices of a 2 bed and 3 bed in a well established residential areas do not vary very much over the long term . Prices may go up and down but the differentials between the different rungs of the ladder are remarkably consistent in percentage terms in my experience. If you can acurately judge the market value for the entry level houses , you are generally able to work out what fair value should be for the 3 bed semis and 4 bed detached in most local markets. Todays reality is that BTL demand is THE detirmining factor supporting the bottom of the market in most locations in the south, we long since moved away unfortunately from FTB demand being the dominant force controlling the market at the entry level. Only punative tax on BTL or a hike in interest rates will change this reality in my opinion.

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Great summary, thanks.

The relationship between housing benefit and the prices of entry-level homes is certainly becoming apparent, with the BTLers being the link.

What I do find interesting is the huge differences in prices across the country for entry-level homes, considering the housing benefit-BTL link. One can easily get yields into double figures in the north of England if you buy at auction and make something reasonably habitable. On the other hand yields in the Midlands already can never really reach 10% with the same "process". This tells me that house prices (at least for entry-level) are still too high across much of England and/or (I suspect "and") the rents one can achieve in the north are abnormally high because of housing benefit.

Thoughts on this?

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The relationship between housing benefit and the prices of entry-level homes is certainly becoming apparent, with the BTLers being the link.

What I do find interesting is the huge differences in prices across the country for entry-level homes, considering the housing benefit-BTL link. One can easily get yields into double figures in the north of England if you buy at auction and make something reasonably habitable. On the other hand yields in the Midlands already can never really reach 10% with the same "process". This tells me that house prices (at least for entry-level) are still too high across much of England and/or (I suspect "and") the rents one can achieve in the north are abnormally high because of housing benefit.

Thoughts on this?

This whole issue is crucial to understanding today's market. When I first started back in the early nineties (before mass BTL) professional multi generational property monied landlord types would not even consider getting out of bed for anything less than around 12% gross yeild. Obviously interest rates were higher but prices and rents were considerably lower.

To make a fair comparison you need to look at a normal 2 bed Victorian Terrace in rentable condition and what they are selling for compared to the Statutory Housing Benefit paid for a 2 bed house in the area. If you are buying for cash and know what you are doing you can pick up and old wreck for under the going rate but you still have to put some time and money refurbishing it to a lettable standard the costs of which should be fairly accounted for when calculating gross yeild.

I suppose the question you are really asking is why dont all the BTLetters chase around the country researching the market properly and pile into the towns where the gross yeild is highest? In a perfectly competitive market of course this would happen if all market participants had equal access to the same information and you would find the gross yeild available would equalize over time wherever you went. In reality , as you have pointed out this is not the case. Experienced BTLetters with large existing portfolios do exhibit this behaviour , they are not adverse to putting in 10 offers on different properties in different towns simultaneously and will only proceed on the one which offers the best yeild all other things being equal. One of the advantages of working for a large corporate agent is that you can actually see this behaviour happening in real time as multiple offers are received and logged on the computer from the same buyer in a short period of time in several different towns. This sort of shrewd buyer however is NOT accounting for the majority of BTL sales. The majority are the aforementioned middleclass types who are dipping into BTL for the first time and exhibit no where near the business acumen of their professional rivals. These people will make basic errors like assuming just because they wouldn't live there then the property is a bad investment. They also will want to be in reasonable geographic proximity to their 1st BTL as they feel they must be hands on. They will generally not consider buying in a far flung Northern town because the yeild is 4% better.

Also some areas are more highly dependent on housing benefit than others. In the areas with a higher than average take up of housing benefit (generally the less affluent ) the correlation between the housing benefit rate and the entry level house prices is far stronger. In more affluent areas of the south , a far higher proportion of the rental market is privately rented, and many long term landlords have more flexability to charge rents not at the full market rate. Many of these people haven't done a proper rent review in years and are not as clued up as they should be as to how the rent they are charging compares with the local Statutory housing benefit rate. As one of the earlier posters have speculated, the recent publicity regarding excessive housing benefit claims have if anything opened long term landlord eyes to what they could charge if they went into the social housing sector where they probably would never have considered renting out to the social tennants previously. I would suspect that the recent upward pressure on rents in the South will increase yeilds in the next few years closer to those in the North if nothing fundamental changes with housing benefit levels being paid out.

Perhaps those people taking an interest in this thread can post the relevant info from their location to get some more real world examples of how this is playing out across the country. Take the 2 bed housing benefit rate in your area, extrapolate the yeild at 7% to get the baseline purchase price and compare the price you arrive at with the real world prices being paid for the same Victorian 2 bed terraces. By carrying out this simple exercise , we can make objective like for like comparisons for fair value in different areas to see which are under/over valued compared to this benchmark.

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Interestingly I've just done some searches for 2-bed terraced houses in various towns in the north (Hull, Barrow, Gainsborough, etc) and the gross rental yields are just a smidgen more than 7%, but not much more. I've been looking at auction properties for too long! Essentially you're talking £60,000 for a decent house and then somewhere around £375 pcm in rent. Once you take into account fees, maintenance, etc, the yields sure aren't great. And that doesn't take into consideration mortgage interest!

To get a decent yield as a landlord you need to buy a bit of a wreck at auction (and don't overbid etc), spend a reasonable amount of money on it, and err do all this with cash lol. So in the north for example: £38k at auction, spend £8k doing it up... should give a 10% yield or so. (And frankly if I did that I'd just sell it on to a BTLer with a mortgage... let him face the burden lol)

Edited by Chuffy Chuffnell

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  • 334 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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