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Losing Faith In Hpc

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

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A massive depression with something like a 25% contraction in GDP. If you are still employed you will be able to pick a bargain.

True. ANother recession looks like the best hope. However, it seems the fed/BoE is prepared to just printy printy to prevent this. This will undermine my savings and basically screw my life.

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

It appears an event will trigger the collapse in house of cards, there are many references, this is one of today's; www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2011/09/18/awaiting-the-capitulation-event-as-stimulus-no-longer-works/

The question is when?

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Look at Northern Ireland -- banks stopped stupid lending -- people had no big deposits -- bank of mum and dad dried up---investors disappeared ===house price falls of 49%.

Do as I do - stop viewing and giving vendors false hope of a sale.

i am not viewing or anything. Cant stand the BS that goes with it. The agents seem to want to try and make you small time if you say places cost too much. So I just get pissed off and dont take their calls.

The thing is I know where I want to settle now. And its frustrating that prices are still so high. I thought that if I knew where I wanted to live by 2012 then I would be able to buy a nice 3 bed for 30% under 2007 prices not 10% under (in nominal terms). I guess I want 3 beds in my area to come down from £200k to what they should be (imo £150k)

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Look at Northern Ireland -- banks stopped stupid lending -- people had no big deposits -- bank of mum and dad dried up---investors disappeared ===house price falls of 49%.

Do as I do - stop viewing and giving vendors false hope of a sale.

It did cross my naughty mind that a certain campful of little tinkers might be speculator-investors who don't want to return to Ireland for some 'unknown' reason :P

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

There are certainly likely not to be large interest rate rises for a few years yet. Inflation will mean that house prices drift down steadily in real terms though. However, the only thing that really matters is whether they also drift down relative to wages. If your career and wages are on an upward trajectory then house prices will seem increasingly cheap over the coming years

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i am not viewing or anything. Cant stand the BS that goes with it. The agents seem to want to try and make you small time if you say places cost too much. So I just get pissed off and dont take their calls.

The thing is I know where I want to settle now. And its frustrating that prices are still so high. I thought that if I knew where I wanted to live by 2012 then I would be able to buy a nice 3 bed for 30% under 2007 prices not 10% under (in nominal terms). I guess I want 3 beds in my area to come down from £200k to what they should be (imo £150k)

:lol::lol::lol: Yes, cos of course they are all big ballers and high rollers :lol: . Next time you view just laugh in their faces before they even open their mouth.

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There are certainly likely not to be large interest rate rises for a few years yet. Inflation will mean that house prices drift down steadily in real terms though. However, the only thing that really matters is whether they also drift down relative to wages. If your career and wages are on an upward trajectory then house prices will seem increasingly cheap over the coming years

If the Eurozone cracks up, why not?

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The five stages of becoming an HPCer:

1. DENIAL - Discover the site, read predictions of house price falls of 50%+, struggle to believe it due to previous programming from relatives, the media etc.

2. EXCITEMENT - Start downloading data series from the ONS and Halifax/Nationwide, calculate historical price:income ratios and make graphs in Excel, get really into Peter Schiff/Dmitry Orlov/Max Keiser, tell anybody who will listen about the coming 'reset'.

3. DEPRESSION - Watch the Halifax/Nationwide indices farting up and down 0.1% on zero volume month after month, struggle to remain optimistic.

4. ANGER - Pour scorn on ZaNuLiebour, the Tories, Nick Clegg, Mervyn Kunt, Grant Shapps, fiat currency, Krusty and Phil, property developers, BTLers, bankers, NIMBYs, VI rampers, sheeple, Boomers, Xers, Guardian readers, Express readers, Wail readers, and Nick Clegg.

5. ACCEPTANCE - Decide to try to make the best of the available employment and housing options, put savings in whichever asset classes seem least worst based on little more than gut instinct, buy popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show.

Edited by Dorkins

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

WHATDAYA MEAN!

HOUSE PRICES HAVE ALREADY CRASHED - BUT ONLY WHEN PRICES IN GOLD

THERE WILL BE

NO NOMINAL £ CRASH IN HOUSE PRICES - GET OVER IT!

INTEREST RATES GOING UP - NEVER!

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The five stages of becoming an HPCer:

1. DENIAL - Discover the site, read predictions of house price falls of 50%+, struggle to believe it due to previous programming from relatives, the media etc.

2. EXCITEMENT - Start downloading data series from the ONS and Halifax/Nationwide, calculate historical price:income ratios and make graphs in Excel, tell anybody who will listen.

3. DEPRESSION - Watch the Halifax/Nationwide indices farting up and down 0.1% on zero volume month after month, struggle to remain optimistic.

4. ANGER - Pour scorn on ZaNuLiebour, the Tories, Nick Clegg, Mervyn Kunt, Grant Shapps, fiat currency, Krusty and Phil, property developers, BTLers, bankers, NIMBYs, VI rampers, sheeple, Boomers, Xers, Guardian readers, Express readers, Wail readers, and Nick Clegg.

5. ACCEPTANCE - Decide to try to make the best of the available employment and housing options, put savings in whichever asset classes seem least worst based on little more than gut instinct, buy popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show.

I guess i am number 4 flirting back and forwards between 4 and 5.

I just cant see falls without IR rises. But I know if IR went up by about 1.5% then we would see some serious action.

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The five stages of becoming an HPCer:

1. DENIAL - Discover the site, read predictions of house price falls of 50%+, struggle to believe it due to previous programming from relatives, the media etc.

2. EXCITEMENT - Start downloading data series from the ONS and Halifax/Nationwide, calculate historical price:income ratios and make graphs in Excel, tell anybody who will listen.

3. DEPRESSION - Watch the Halifax/Nationwide indices farting up and down 0.1% on zero volume month after month, struggle to remain optimistic.

4. ANGER - Pour scorn on ZaNuLiebour, the Tories, Nick Clegg, Mervyn Kunt, Grant Shapps, fiat currency, Krusty and Phil, property developers, BTLers, bankers, NIMBYs, VI rampers, sheeple, Boomers, Xers, Guardian readers, Express readers, Wail readers, and Nick Clegg.

5. ACCEPTANCE - Decide to try to make the best of the available employment and housing options, put savings in whichever asset classes seem least worst based on little more than gut instinct, buy popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show.

Just reaching the Acceptance phase - took 5 years though.

Slow learner!

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i am not viewing or anything. Cant stand the BS that goes with it. The agents seem to want to try and make you small time if you say places cost too much. So I just get pissed off and dont take their calls.

The thing is I know where I want to settle now. And its frustrating that prices are still so high. I thought that if I knew where I wanted to live by 2012 then I would be able to buy a nice 3 bed for 30% under 2007 prices not 10% under (in nominal terms). I guess I want 3 beds in my area to come down from £200k to what they should be (imo £150k)

When you thought that what kind of IR did you think you would be paying when buying the house 30% off peak . Was it higher than what you can get today ? I bet it was , so houses are still 20% over what you thought you would pay but mortgages being lower would counter act that money so the payments could be about the same . There are some really good 5 and 10 year fixes about.

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WHATDAYA MEAN!

HOUSE PRICES HAVE ALREADY CRASHED - BUT ONLY WHEN PRICES IN GOLD

In CHF we gonna partly like it's 1999 !

2hs9f81.jpg

Edited by davidg

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How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises?

About a year ago, a blog poster called Flashman said that he'd done some statistical analysis of the relationship between property prices and IRs; to his surprise, he came to the conclusion that the correlation is actually rather weak. I suppose we tend to associate property corrections with high interest rates due to the interest rate spike in the 90s. Flashman's other conclusion was that there is a quite strong correlation between unemployment levels and house prices. Basically, if UK unemployment levels hit about 2.8 million then you should expct to see forced sales about 18 months later. So there you go . That's how it might happen.

http://www.housepric...mbers-31001.php

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About a year ago, a blog poster called Flashman said that he'd done some statistical analysis of the relationship between property prices and IRs; to his surprise, he came to the conclusion that the correlation is actually rather weak. I suppose we tend to associate property corrections with high interest rates due to the interest rate spike in the 90s. Flashman's other conclusion was that there is a quite strong correlation between unemployment levels and house prices. Basically, if UK unemployment levels hit about 2.8 million then you should expct to see forced sales about 18 months later. So there you go . That's how it might happen.

http://www.housepric...mbers-31001.php

Well I guess rising unemployment is a good thing for house prices then. That could be a silver lining. Looks like unemployment will rise in the coming months. But then dont the government pay peoples mortgages with that stupid scheme?

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

Excellent post. Your are right; nothing significant is going to happen without interest rates rising from their absurdly low level, and of course you know the rate is where it is in order to protect, in the main, the very people who caused the boom, then banking meltdown in the first place.

No amount of "calling" a crash here, or "calling" and end to the euro/dollar/pound ad nauseam, is going to alter the fact that there is an inescapable relationship between the capital cost of housing and interest rates. The lower rates are, the higher prices are going to be sustained. The reason for the lack of a decent adjustment to house prices is utterly predicated on interest rates.

Many of us have been duped into imagining that raising interest rates to a proper level that rewards investors and depositors, and punishes speculators or quick fix gamblers, is somehow wrong, and will lead to some kind of crisis. The opposite is the case, if people are prepared to wait until the real outcomes assert themselves. What dissapoints me is that many posters here get diverted into all sorts of theories about the Euro, national identity, immigration, and other subjects which detract from the fundamental theme. Governments, banks, and regulators are all very powerful and can protect those who have ruined this economy by constantly bailing them out of mistakes they have made, while those who are interested more in long term problems, and more realistic goals are perpetually sidelined.

Look back the last hundred years: The higher interest rates, the lower the PRICE of property. The lower interest rates the HIGHER the price of property. Any half-witted market trader would tell you the same. But our economists, our press and our apparently elected elite tell us that "supporting" the economy with ludicrously low interest rates is somehow a passport out of pain. It is not. The more cash is printed, the more we extend the denial and the more we support those who should NOT be supported, the worse it will be.

Edited by VacantPossession

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The five stages of becoming an HPCer:

1. DENIAL - Discover the site, read predictions of house price falls of 50%+, struggle to believe it due to previous programming from relatives, the media etc.

2. EXCITEMENT - Start downloading data series from the ONS and Halifax/Nationwide, calculate historical price:income ratios and make graphs in Excel, get really into Peter Schiff/Dmitry Orlov/Max Keiser, tell anybody who will listen about the coming 'reset'.

3. DEPRESSION - Watch the Halifax/Nationwide indices farting up and down 0.1% on zero volume month after month, struggle to remain optimistic.

4. ANGER - Pour scorn on ZaNuLiebour, the Tories, Nick Clegg, Mervyn Kunt, Grant Shapps, fiat currency, Krusty and Phil, property developers, BTLers, bankers, NIMBYs, VI rampers, sheeple, Boomers, Xers, Guardian readers, Express readers, Wail readers, and Nick Clegg.

5. ACCEPTANCE - Decide to try to make the best of the available employment and housing options, put savings in whichever asset classes seem least worst based on little more than gut instinct, buy popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show.

That is stunningly accurate! Many true words spoken in jest

Seriously that is spooky, don't know how long I've been reading the site but those stages are spot on.

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What would be the effect of an IR rise. Less disposable income = more difficult to service mortgage.

Now, what will be the effect of wage stagnation + cost inflation?

If you can figure out the answer to that, you'll stop worrying.

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

Already lost faith. STRd in central London in 07, only to see prices continue to rise. Put up with rapacious rent-increasing landlords for four years, finally decided I'd had enough. Moved out, bought in the Midlands, watched the riots on TV during my first week here. I still believe there will be a HPC, but you can''t plan your life around it..

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How are we going to get falls without interest rate rises? Its so depressing to think I have been waiting for about 3 years now and I am getting older. I kind of feel like life is passing me by, but I dont want to buy into what I consider an inflated market.

How are we going to get any house price falls without IR rises? It seems like all these people dont have to move because their mortgage is o little each month. This way they can save money every month and actually are being rewarded for buying into bubble at the expense of savers/hopeful homebuyers like me.

Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Thanks

I feel you pain

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Is there a scenario that anyone can see falls in house prices without rate rises? If so please give me the logic because I am really depressed about it all at the moment.

Have a read about the Bond Bubble from the News Blog, and rest re-assured

http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7238833/this-is-going-to-hurt.thtml

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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