Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
exiges

Two Tier Market

Recommended Posts

On Primelocation I searched a 20 mile radius around Northampton for properties with "acres" over £800k. It came back with some 110 properties, doing the same search again excluding those under offer showed that 30 (27%) are under offer. Over 1 in 4 is under offer, mental.

Doing the same search without land in a £160k to £170k range shows that just 9% are under offer.

Thinking this maybe anomalous I did the same around Luton and got the same results.

TheCountOfNowhere did some research of the upper end properties yesterday and found people are not just asking well over 2007 "peak" but buyers are paying it too.

Edited by exiges

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On Primelocation I searched a 20 mile radius around Northampton for properties with "acres" over £800k. It came back with some 110 properties, doing the same search again excluding those under offer showed that 30 (27%) are under offer. Over 1 in 4 is under offer, mental.

Doing the same search without land in a £160k to £170k range shows that just 9% are under offer.

Thinking this maybe anomalous I did the same around Luton and got the same results.

TheCountOfNowhere did some research of the upper end properties yesterday and found people are not just asking well over 2007 "peak" but buyers are paying it too.

Sellers with large equity exchanging properties between each other with cheap and available mortgages=price rises.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sellers with large equity exchanging properties between each other with cheap and available mortgages=price rises.

my sense is that there are bragging rights to this - I see it from people exchanging silly money and going on about it on HPC - they tend to be in the property-moneyed generations, and get a thrill about it, not realising they are practicing awful capital asset allocation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that prime property is selling, also that stuff over the 300K mark (in my area Nottingham) is doing better than the rest.

Your 9% sold ratio is about what I am getting at the moment. It was up at about 25% during the spring bounce, but fell off a cliff during the August holidays and I am yet to see any recovery. The long term average is about 33% sold.

Just shows we have got to keep the millionaires trading their properties as the plebs are clearly not, maybe the fact they have lost 10% of their incomes from QE1 might have something to do with that.

Since the plebs are not playing I reckon we need QE2 to keep this millionaire activity up and punish the workers with another 10% wage cut. A bit of quantitative looting from the poor should make up for Croydon.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my sense is that there are bragging rights to this - I see it from people exchanging silly money and going on about it on HPC - they tend to be in the property-moneyed generations, and get a thrill about it, not realising they are practicing awful capital asset allocation

remortgage at low rate, extended terms, higher prices, little change in monthly outgoings. All that counts.

Edited by jaspers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The top of the market is not immune, and is about a declining number of people exchanging assets for ever increasing prices.

When the music stops, somebody will be holding the parcel! :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

remortgage at low rate, extended terms, higher prices, little change in monthly outgoings. All that counts.

I am sure that there are also a lot of unmortgaged boomers playing swapsy. And, I suppose, it is in their interests to maintain a false valuation on their personal balance sheets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

remortgage at low rate, extended terms, higher prices, little change in monthly outgoings. All that counts.

as long as mortgage rates are below inflation this is fine - and they are if you have 50% equity, which these people probably do

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sure that there are also a lot of unmortgaged boomers playing swapsy. And, I suppose, it is in their interests to maintain a false valuation on their personal balance sheets.

Do you honestly think Doris and Arthur have that mentality or do they just want a bungalow with a nice garden ? And buy one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you honestly think Doris and Arthur have that mentality or do they just want a bungalow with a nice garden ? And buy one.

Assuming they are not public sector workers then probably, that's their pension and they may need a lifetime equity release loan at some stage. They will no doubt be bloody Express readers too.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

remortgage at low rate, extended terms, higher prices, little change in monthly outgoings. All that counts.

I think you are right there.....it's the monthly cost that counts...the debt undertaken does not factor into it...obtaining more but costing less.

Some would prefer to have less costing nothing. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How are you gaging by what is STC, how do you know who recent this is as agents round my way leave them on RM for ages to make people think others are buying.

That thought went through my head too! One here that I made an offer on (rejected) has had the sold sticker up for 3 months, and the same people still live there. :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How are you gaging by what is STC, how do you know who recent this is as agents round my way leave them on RM for ages to make people think others are buying.

They are left on the internet much longer than in people's gardens, the new owners always pull them up if the EA is slow. If you like walking , the only accurate measure is on foot. Beware EAs blitzing apartment blocks with false sale signs too. They are getting f***king desperate to give the impression of properties sold at the mo as we enter meltdown.

Edited by crashmonitor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm seeing exactly the same thing as exiges...we look at much the same area though. 2 things keeping th market going are the monthly affordability thing and the people moving out of london thing. Whichever set is buying the houses round our way its definately skewing the market big time, the 500K+ properties are selling like hot cakes and prices are at 2007+ prices. I think many people will live to regret buying this year.

A point to note though is, if this is happening round the country..imagine how it's skewing the haliwide/land reg figures.

When IRs rise or london market collapses again then the top end property prices will get hammered. The risk of buying right now is too high.

I did a quick calculation yesterday, in the northants thread) on one house that sold in 2008 then 2011,,,even though the buyer sold for 50K. more they probably were 100k worse off( buying/selling fees and interest ). They could have rented a top notch property in northants for 50K less than the costs of buying.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
. The risk of buying right now is too high..

Maybe or perhaps another 3-4 yrs of breakneck inflation coupled with ZIRP will mean we'll only see real term drops and wish we'd just bought all those years ago </devils avacado>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I personally don't give a monkey's about the upper end. Properties around Wimbledon and surrounds are going for seriously stupid prices, and that's fine by me. A lot of them are for the high end renters who are sent here by their banks or whatever. Even then, I notice homes which might have one time been rented quite quickly are languishing on the agents' books, so there'll be some price reductions due. A busride away in Mitcham, and around the Croydon areas, the prices are doing exactly what I want them to do, which is very nice. The madness at the upper end undoubtedly skews the stats, which is why I ignore them and concentrate on areas I actually want to live in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting stuff

Had some involvement in both the Scottish Borders and Devon recently. Very little higher end (>500k) stuff seems to have sold in both. There's perhaps more movement in Devon as the influence of London is felt more strongly, but it is not dramatic and much remains unsold. In the Borders only the cheaper stuff seems to be selling, the expensive stuff seems to sit on the market for an age even if it's good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The top of the market is not immune, and is about a declining number of people exchanging assets for ever increasing prices.

When the music stops, somebody will be holding the parcel! :huh:

I agree with you Mr Pin. I don't see the top end performing particularly well in the North West and Midlands - a lot of properties are still on Rightmove from 2009. This year some of the new properties in the c£1m area seem to be more competitively priced. I can only put the enthusiasm to pay so much at the top end down to old habits dying hard amongst those who still believe that you can't lose with bricks and mortar and are ignorant of the fragility of the present market.

You have play the long game here - along with other countries which have "guaranteed" their banks, the UK has the potential fallout from a Greek default to absorb and once that is over in a year or two attention from international investors to its level of debt and likelihood of paying it back. It will hit earnings and effective demand for property will fall. QE and low interest rates will just exacerbate this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

West Somerset - My feeling is that people aren't moving much on price, maybe 5% tops.

I sense a "If I can't sell it for what I think it's worth then I'm not selling" mentality...

Of course, if they do sell and look to buy somewhere, that mentality will be forgotten in an instant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

West Somerset - My feeling is that people aren't moving much on price, maybe 5% tops.

You must be quite near me. The number I've seen where the seller won't budge on price, and they all needed work too.

Eventually I found a seller who would budge on price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How are you gaging by what is STC, how do you know who recent this is as agents round my way leave them on RM for ages to make people think others are buying.

That thought went through my head too! One here that I made an offer on (rejected) has had the sold sticker up for 3 months, and the same people still live there. :unsure:

That's happening right next door to us - the old bloke who lived there sadly died about a year ago and the For Sale sign duly appeared. Two months later and it was changed to "SOLD"

In the ten months since then, it's not been removed from the EA's website - being described as sold, subject to contract - and I don't think we'll be invited to a house-warming party any time soon.

Meanwhile the lovely front garden the old guy used to tend every day now looks like how I imagine Terry Waite's did on his return.... :(

XYY

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe or perhaps another 3-4 yrs of breakneck inflation coupled with ZIRP will mean we'll only see real term drops and wish we'd just bought all those years ago </devils avacado>

That's always a possibility, but if the mid-low end properties are selling at 20% off peak prices ( which is certainly the case in NH from what I see ) then why should the top end places be exhibiting a different selling pattern ?

I think the Londoners moving to the country and buying what appears to them to be a great value house ( even though they are paying well over the odds ) and getting a low market rate is simply keeping these prices up.

The key has to be the London Market. When it goes, everything goes.

When will London pop.....dunno :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.