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Stocks And Shares Bull Market


nohpc
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I thought it was all white noise regardless of the lens?

well yes i would say thats correct as its fundamentally fractal in nature, i guess im alluding to those timeframes arent likely to give any information as to the underlying health or lack of within the economy when stockmarkets have the uncanny ability to foresee and preempt recessions and recoveries up to a year before they actually happen

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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Only on HPC can folks state the MASIF gains they're getting with no losses in sight lol.

Will I hell plunge into more shares, too risky - from now on trackers only. I see gold's back down now, if it falls below $1700, could be a good time to buy back in.

All gamblers boast about their gains.. they don't mention they need them to cover their losses ;)

IMHO, the only difference between gambling and the stock market is that you are statistically more likely to win in the stock market due to inflation and over all market growth (presuming those two conditions hold positive).

Day trading is generally a mugs game.. only for those who really think they can beat the bookie. The only guaranteed winners are the market makers.

For my part I invest some of my housing deposit in stocks.. but I do it over a medium term and accept that I could make a loss. I have been buying into this last dip. I could easily regret it if we do hit a full-on double dip.

I am gambling that the government(s) will print their way out..

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I never invested in the stockmarket until 2 years ago when I was going to call my bank to ask why they hadn't paid my annual interest. Then I re-checked my statement and realised they had, it was that small.

Last year I invested 20% of my STR fund and made 7 times more than I would have done on my whole STR funds 1 year interest payment. This year hasn't been as good so far, but currently 24% up on 33% of my STR fund invested.

I'd never have bothered if interest rates had been respectable so low interest rates have forced me to be more inventive with my savings massively to my benefit (so far).

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So you just about managed to beat inflation by a small margin... ( before taxes...)

and of course it's all theoretical until you actually sell.

Its somewhat better than inflation because that investment was made over the course of 2011 not all on the 1st January - so that actual 'APR' is somewhat higher.

The dividends I have recieved are certainly real and in my pocket.

I have adopted a defensive strategy of buying solid high divi shares in FTSE 250 companies. If you have any better suggestions Im all ears :)

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All gamblers boast about their gains.. they don't mention they need them to cover their losses ;)

IMHO, the only difference between gambling and the stock market is that you are statistically more likely to win in the stock market due to inflation and over all market growth (presuming those two conditions hold positive).

Day trading is generally a mugs game.. only for those who really think they can beat the bookie. The only guaranteed winners are the market makers.

For my part I invest some of my housing deposit in stocks.. but I do it over a medium term and accept that I could make a loss. I have been buying into this last dip. I could easily regret it if we do hit a full-on double dip.

I am gambling that the government(s) will print their way out..

+1

I generally stick to a buy and hold strategy. To date the dividend income alone is about £1700 a year As I already own property outright the shares are a 2nd pension fund (I already have the promise of a reasonable final salary scheme :rolleyes: )

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The 30's will tell you that and the big second leg down has not yet happened this time - on that basis we are on the shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern, riding for a much steeper fall. Back then it took 20 years to recover (but we'll accept there was a WW11 in there) .

Aahhhh..... but it's different this time?!

The 30's was about prudent monetary policy. AS a result the economy deflated as money was sucked out. People held onto their cash knowing that in the future it was worth more.

This time round there is loose monetary policy. It makes sense to get rid of your cash.

I'm going for a Bull run on shares.

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Interesting pattern here among STRs and others: I too got fed up with no interest on savings and put most of mine in shares from 2009-2011. I was about 10% up at some points during the recovereh.

Now I am 10% down on paper, but I am in for the long haul and pretty diversified.

If anyone is thinking about going down this path then be warned - it is not for the fainthearted with all the volatility at the mo.

I have two particular dogs - a solar maker who is 81% down (10% of my portfolio!), and a 'rocksolid' biotech (don't believe the hype - most of these are pump and dump machines) which is 71% down on a similar scale investment.

On the other hand I have sold three excellent British manufacturing and engineering shares at +100% profit in the last two years. There is plenty of value in British companies

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I've not explained that properly, you could argue after all the destruction and the automation of the human race from that point in time it was inevitable.

What you are suggesting is a Peter Schiff type approach I'm not suggesting that at all, it was a comment on the period from about 1929 - 1945 when in fact after that, it started to boom for the reason (s) I've stated.

nope the fundamental reason it started to boom (and it was private industry) is because the level of savings reached unprecedented levels, that was the fundamental cause (partly caused by not having anything to spend it on during the war, although savings were recovering nicely before the war started because debt default had happened to a large extent in the early 30s creating the foundation. Schiff alluded to it that savings being replenished are a must for any recovery and have been throughout history and fundamentally those savings must be balanced within the economic popn, the govt pissing money up the wall on whatever including war will solve nothing without the savings rebalancing across the population, not addressing the savings issue can continuously be put off until it cant be at an ever greater cost when it cant be put off as the last 30 years is showing, the continuing pursuit of asset price stability/ attempted fixing is almost perfectly ensuring this neccesary savings foundation cannot be created.

Anything can be be seen to lead to recovery when it finally happens, but the only guarantee is that it will fundamentally be savings increasing to an acceptable level, until such point there will be no sustained economic recovery no matter what booms or bounces happen on the way

And more importantly this is fundamentally what is happening in the economy despite every effort of the govt to change behaviour and spend other peoples money on their behalf (and i would bet if you looked at every MPs finances they are also saving more of their own money than previously), people and companies are mostly saving, that is what is causing the recession/depression, it is trying to self fix and it is why any artificially induced spending will run out of steam and fail again and again and again until savings are well distributed

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka
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Aahhhh..... but it's different this time?!

The 30's was about prudent monetary policy. AS a result the economy deflated as money was sucked out. People held onto their cash knowing that in the future it was worth more.

This time round there is loose monetary policy. It makes sense to get rid of your cash.

I'm going for a Bull run on shares.

Wallyats track record of prediction is the same as most pundits i.e. no better than 50/50. He is a classic chartist who looks at the numbers and not what happening to real people in the real world. He also ignores black swan/tail risk probabilities. Essentially his forcasts are based on predicting policy decision (i.e. EQ) which can change on a whim of whoevers finger is on the button. Equities have been flat for 18 months which was the point that this so called "steal bull market" ran out of steam.

Anyone considering betting real money on walyatts advice should read talebs "fooled by randomness"

or "black swan"

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ALBERT EDWARDS ISSUES WARNING: A S&P 500 'KILLER WAVE' Is Forming

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/killer-wave-formation-sp-500-2011-9#ixzz1Y2RpdDED

More chartish b*llocks. Lets be clear on one thing NOONE has ever used past data to predict future market movements with greater that 50% accuracy. I think hes right actually but its nothing to with imaginary patters on random movements that hes trying oh so hard to explain, its down to basic unsustainable debt.

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We are possibly facing another 'cyclical' bull market within the overall 'secular' bear market.

Another uptrend for 1-2 years then another major leg down for Western indexes.

Only defensives are pricing in secular market low valuations. The indexes are not.

We've got a Bull in a Bear In a Bull in a Bear. Good party.

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nope the fundamental reason it started to boom (and it was private industry) is because the level of savings reached unprecedented levels,

Not super-knowledgeable on this and open to correction, but wasn't the huge level of private savings simply the inverse of the huge government debt? People "saved" with war bonds and the like and the governments spent it building stuff to blow up.

I'm not sure how that correlates with real capital formation, although it is certainly a better position than the UK and US is in now, with overleveraged private and public sectors. (More comparable to Japan now?).

Surely the fact that America was left with an intact infrastructure at a sweet spot in its energy development cycle and with a freshly bombed world to export to had something to do with it?

I don't think that the entire world boomed to the same extent.

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I never invested in the stockmarket until 2 years ago when I was going to call my bank to ask why they hadn't paid my annual interest. Then I re-checked my statement and realised they had, it was that small.

Last year I invested 20% of my STR fund and made 7 times more than I would have done on my whole STR funds 1 year interest payment. This year hasn't been as good so far, but currently 24% up on 33% of my STR fund invested.

I'd never have bothered if interest rates had been respectable so low interest rates have forced me to be more inventive with my savings massively to my benefit (so far).

You're doing exactly what Bernanke etc expected.

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  • 4 months later...

Very good run for me recently. Only possible as I invested heavily during the recent market panics.

I predict further extreme volatility but remain a believer in the bull market. Rich people have done very, very well out of this crash and have more money than they know what to do with.

Yes there will be further panics to shake out the weak hands allowing people with expendable money to pile in cheaply.

Buy on the dips fellas (especially when massive dips are accompanied by prophecies of even bigger dips to come by those on this website).

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Very good run for me recently. Only possible as I invested heavily during the recent market panics.

I predict further extreme volatility but remain a believer in the bull market. Rich people have done very, very well out of this crash and have more money than they know what to do with.

Yes there will be further panics to shake out the weak hands allowing people with expendable money to pile in cheaply.

Buy on the dips fellas (especially when massive dips are accompanied by prophecies of even bigger dips to come by those on this website).

In that case, this crash (in everything) has a long way to go yet

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In that case, this crash (in everything) has a long way to go yet

Ad infinatum. In that case the bull has a long way to go.

Contrarian, counter contrarian, counter counter contrarian etc.

Most are bearish on stocks making it a good entry point for long term investment. You won't find many bullish commentators out there.

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That's not what I hear from a friend who's business sells to very wealthy people.

Maybe your friend and nohpc have very different ideas about what 'rich' means?

There's probably a very different outlook for 'rich' people (as in: a doctor with a 5-bedroom detached house, a Cayenne, and a mortgage) and 'rich' people (as in: owns a sizeable portion of some small town; has no debts whatsoever).

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Maybe your friend and nohpc have very different ideas about what 'rich' means?

There's probably a very different outlook for 'rich' people (as in: a doctor with a 5-bedroom detached house, a Cayenne, and a mortgage) and 'rich' people (as in: owns a sizeable portion of some small town; has no debts whatsoever).

Average net worth £30M+

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