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aclwalker

Are Job Loss Figures Consistent With The Last Crash?

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Those of you who are old enough to have first hand experience of the last crash, are the recent reports of job losses consistent in frequency and magnitude to last time round? Or is it worse?

I remember as a boy watching Trevor MacDonald with his 'weather map' roundup of the week's job losses. I think it was done on a Friday, but being young I don't quite remember the details.

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Having lived through it (but without looking at any official stats as yet) my feeling is that the signifianct job losses are starting earlier this time for certain different macroeconomic reasons (domestic and asian competition, global markets/economy etc). I certainly do not remember any consistent job losses news (which is what we have had over the last year I think) during 1988 or 1989 - even into 1990. The recession and big job losses really seemed to bite from 1991 onwards in my mind. I think house prices are tipping now in a similar fashion to late 1989 but the job cycle is further down the curve than last time. Of course, this is just my hazy recollection!

Edited by Tempest

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Having lived through it (but without looking at any official stats as yet) my feeling is that the signifianct job losses are starting earlier this time for certain different macroeconomic reasons (domestic and asian competition, global markets/economy etc). I certainly do not remember any consistent job losses news (which is what we have had over the last year I think) during 1988 or 1989 - even into 1990. The recession and big job losses really seemed to bite from 1991 onwards in my mind. I think house prices are tipping now in a similar fashion to late 1989 but the job cycle is further down the curve than last time. Of course, this is just my hazy recollection!

Thanks for that. Hazy recollections are every bit as good as media-spun 'history'.

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At the time of the last crash, I lived up North around the Manchester area, and I worked in Double Glazing sales. Now the thing is that when the crash happened from what I remember the north west was one of the last places where there was rising house prices. But the crash seemed to happen faster there. Anyone that was working in an job that relied on the property market such as building or home improvements saw the job cuts first. With myself I was on a £50 a week basic and I believe a 6% commision. On average I earned £250 a week.

But within the crash being mentioned on the news my wage dropped within a period of about three weeks to just £50 basic. Then the company I worked for dropped the basic to £40. Being a young thing that just spent and partied you can imagine how this effected my life.

At the moment it seems to be the retail sector that is effected most. But I think this is because there is so much debt now. We didn't really have as many credit cards then. I didn't have one. Most of my freinds didn't. Many of them still got their wages at the end of the week instead of the month in a pay packet envelope. There were huge overdrafts. I remember my boss had just bought a new build in Merseyside for £78,000 what you would probably spend £300,000 on now. He had an £800 overdraft. I thought that was unreal then.

Within a year he had lost his job, his house and was losing his marriage.

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At the time of the last crash, I lived up North around the Manchester area, and I worked in Double Glazing sales. Now the thing is that when the crash happened from what I remember the north west was one of the last places where there was rising house prices. But the crash seemed to happen faster there. Anyone that was working in an job that relied on the property market such as building or home improvements saw the job cuts first. With myself I was on a £50 a week basic and I believe a 6% commision. On average I earned £250 a week.

But within the crash being mentioned on the news my wage dropped within a period of about three weeks to just £50 basic. Then the company I worked for dropped the basic to £40. Being a young thing that just spent and partied you can imagine how this effected my life.

At the moment it seems to be the retail sector that is effected most. But I think this is because there is so much debt now. We didn't really have as many credit cards then. I didn't have one. Most of my freinds didn't. Many of them still got their wages at the end of the week instead of the month in a pay packet envelope. There were huge overdrafts. I remember my boss had just bought a new build in Merseyside for £78,000 what you would probably spend £300,000 on now. He had an £800 overdraft. I thought that was unreal then.

Within a year he had lost his job, his house and was losing his marriage.

Funny that..I worked in Double Glazing in the North West around this time. Seem to remember one large DG company pulling out of everything north of the Watford gap. The sales team were leaping around the office in joy because they thought they had free run of the North. Turned sour though when sales dried up...they didn't realise that pulling out of everything up north was an ominous sign of things to come not a free gift

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Guest growl
Funny that..I worked in Double Glazing in the North West around this time. Seem to remember one large DG company pulling out of everything north of the Watford gap. The sales team were leaping around the office in joy because they thought they had free run of the North. Turned sour though when sales dried up...they didn't realise that pulling out of everything up north was an ominous sign of things to come not a free gift

So it is happening again. Only because when the sales started to dry up the last time I started moving from company to company as they started to close. Three of them up north, then finally went down to Wolverhampton to work for another one, before the work completely dried up a year later.

Its interesting that similar stuff is happening now. I also remember how doubleglazing salesmen became pariah's on the news. There were plenty of stories on programs like watchdog about the rip-off salesmen, signing up old ladies in their desperation and outstaying their welcome by 3 or 4 hours. Then there were the corporate spies who worked for one company while really working for another and passing on leads. The gangs of canvassers threatening other teams to stay off their 'prop'.

Of course those of us that weren't like that got painted with the same brush. I remember telling myself I would never go into sales again.

Methinks we are going to hear more and stories like this in this crash. People get nasty when their livelyhoods are on the line. :ph34r:

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I haven't analysed the figures but I remember the drop being much faster last time. The Poll Tax had a huge effect on a lot of people and suddenly there were no jobs around. I see the stats about rising unemployment, but round our area of the south east we're having huge problems recruiting staff.

Also unemployment is rising from very low levels, during the eighties there were millions unemployed.

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Very difficult to make absolute comparisions. My feeling is that a large propertion of the job losses occuring now - in terms of the big announced layoffs are occuring for almost entirely different reasons to last time ad have a lot more to do with uncompetitiveness which has not only been sustained but increased by the housing boom. Globalisation always had the potenital to shift vast numbers of jobs abroad to lower cost countries, the housing boom and diffuclty in getting the right staff at the right price is leading to accelerated movement of jobs abroad. If correct we haven't even approached the rump of layoffs due with the inescapable compression in the consumer economy, which like last time will pan out over years with maybe peak number of consumer/finance/housing associated jobs going in the next few years ahead.

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I haven't analysed the figures but I remember the drop being much faster last time. The Poll Tax had a huge effect on a lot of people and suddenly there were no jobs around. I see the stats about rising unemployment, but round our area of the south east we're having huge problems recruiting staff.

Also unemployment is rising from very low levels, during the eighties there were millions unemployed.

The measures of unemployment were different in the 80s to how they're measured now so it would be comparing chalk with apples. :blink:

Interesting that you're struggling to recruit though. Is that because of a general lack of people, or that you can't find people with the right skills?

I just recruited for a project manager and got over 100 applicants that were qualified, many of them overly so for the job on offer.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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