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Statistician

London Prices Are Comming Down Fast

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Just to report on my house purchase. First just to clarify that I believe that house prices are still in bubble, but I could not wait any longer. I have been watching the market for almost a year mainly in zones 5 and 6 of the Greater London, inside M25. The areas I have been watching are known as middle class areas. Even in these areas I have seen great reductions in the last couple of months, sometimes up to 10%, in places like Bromley and Orpington which are mainly middle class. However, I have noticed that most of properties coming onto market in these area are those of the deceased or the one’s that want to downsize or move out of London.

So, I seriously looked around for a few weeks and finally found what I wanted. I needed a 3-4 bed property within a price range of 250 to 300 thousand pounds near good schools and within walking distance of a train station. I found a house which is in good condition (only required some decoration) near a school that is rated as outstanding in the OFSTED report (a have a 4 year old kid) and is within 5 minutes walking distance of a mainland train station. It provides the space I need for my little family. The house was advertised/prices the same as the peak time. But my final offer was 10% lower than the peak time, around 2005-2006 levels, which I could comfortably afford. All in all I am satisfied with my decision. I know that the prices are going to go down further. But because I found what I wanted and know that I can afford it even if the interest rates go back to their long term average, I could not wait any longer. Here was my story. Just to point out again, from my observation even prices in the nice areas of London, middle class areas out of central London, in zones 4, 5, and 6 are coming down.

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Just to report on my house purchase. First just to clarify that I believe that house prices are still in bubble, but I could not wait any longer. I have been watching the market for almost a year mainly in zones 5 and 6 of the Greater London, inside M25. The areas I have been watching are known as middle class areas. Even in these areas I have seen great reductions in the last couple of months, sometimes up to 10%, in places like Bromley and Orpington which are mainly middle class. However, I have noticed that most of properties coming onto market in these area are those of the deceased or the one’s that want to downsize or move out of London.

So, I seriously looked around for a few weeks and finally found what I wanted. I needed a 3-4 bed property within a price range of 250 to 300 thousand pounds near good schools and within walking distance of a train station. I found a house which is in good condition (only required some decoration) near a school that is rated as outstanding in the OFSTED report (a have a 4 year old kid) and is within 5 minutes walking distance of a mainland train station. It provides the space I need for my little family. The house was advertised/prices the same as the peak time. But my final offer was 10% lower than the peak time, around 2005-2006 levels, which I could comfortably afford. All in all I am satisfied with my decision. I know that the prices are going to go down further. But because I found what I wanted and know that I can afford it even if the interest rates go back to their long term average, I could not wait any longer. Here was my story. Just to point out again, from my observation even prices in the nice areas of London, middle class areas out of central London, in zones 4, 5, and 6 are coming down.

I thought about living in London but I never go through with it.

I dont understand why people pay so much to live there. It is rampant with crime and gangsters. Everyone there thinks its cool to be a gangster and strut down the street. Its like the general population there live in fear.

The wages of people in finance are unsustainable, and once they come down the london property market is going to be amusing to watch.

Good luck with your house OP.

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Nothing new in any of this. There were 3/4 beds within M25 Romford/Havering when I lived there ( a year or two ago now) under £300k and also within walking distance a station (Gidea Park/Harold Hill). Very middle class, respectable and not an ethnic ghetto. Very little is selling and prices have been falling slightly for some time. Lot of uncertainty with nearby City and Ford plant.

Edited by John Steed

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I wonder if this is a by product of the riots - or is this just too early to tell?

Quite a few zone 4,5 & 6 suburbs saw some nasty violence and were once described as middle class districts.

Perhaps the middle classes baby boomers have finally had enough of the crime and bad attitudes by certain sectors of the community and are desperate to escape beyond the M25 or abroad?

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I wonder if this is a by product of the riots - or is this just too early to tell?

Quite a few zone 4,5 & 6 suburbs saw some nasty violence and were once described as middle class districts.

Perhaps the middle classes baby boomers have finally had enough of the crime and bad attitudes by certain sectors of the community and are desperate to escape beyond the M25 or abroad?

Nothing to do with riots, these place peaked or found their level. There is a lot of uncertainty over jobs.My dozy ex landlord paid the most in his street (£320,000) for a 3 bed semi, and that record has never been matched and perhaps never will again. Russian oligarchs and chinese billionaires don't usually buy out in Orpington or Havering.

PS. Well I say dozy, his mortgage was around £250k yet was only a few hundred a month with the Chelsea. God knows how he'd wangled that deal.

Edited by John Steed

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They do that :rolleyes:.

Yes, I appreciate your point. But at the same time I have to live somewhere. If I do not buy I have to rent. I have a repayment mortgage and make use of low interest rates. Imagine the prices go down another 10% (this is just an ASSUMPTION some might think it will go down more or less). I would lose around 25k. On the other hand if I rent I would have to pay almost 10k more on my rent compared with my interest payments for the same property. In this case, yes I will still lose around 10-15k given these ASSUMPTIONS, but instead my family will be in a better position than we are at the moment. Plus, I can afford it.

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Yes, I appreciate your point. But at the same time I have to live somewhere. If I do not buy I have to rent. I have a repayment mortgage and make use of low interest rates. Imagine the prices go down another 10% (this is just an ASSUMPTION some might think it will go down more or less). I would lose around 25k. On the other hand if I rent I would have to pay almost 10k more on my rent compared with my interest payments for the same property. In this case, yes I will still lose around 10-15k given these ASSUMPTIONS, but instead my family will be in a better position than we are at the moment. Plus, I can afford it.

I can afford to pay half a mil for a bag of crisps ;).

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Nothing to do with riots, these place peaked or found their level. There is a lot of uncertainty over jobs.My dozy ex landlord paid the most in his street (£320,000) for a 3 bed semi, and that record has never been matched and perhaps never will again. Russian oligarchs and chinese billionaires don't usually buy out in Orpington or Havering.

PS. Well I say dozy, his mortgage was around £250k yet was only a few hundred a month with the Chelsea. God knows how he'd wangled that deal.

Uncertainty about jobs and wages could certainly be a factor but what interested me, from a social geography perspective, is what you see in US cities after urban riots and that is middle class white-flight from neighbouring areas. I just wonder how, say, house prices in nicer bits of the London boroughs of Ealing, Enfield and Croydon might be influenced. If US experience is anything to go by there will be an impact thats all - nought to do with oligarchs & non-doms (thats another big issue for inner London)

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Yes, I appreciate your point. But at the same time I have to live somewhere. If I do not buy I have to rent. I have a repayment mortgage and make use of low interest rates. Imagine the prices go down another 10% (this is just an ASSUMPTION some might think it will go down more or less). I would lose around 25k. On the other hand if I rent I would have to pay almost 10k more on my rent compared with my interest payments for the same property. In this case, yes I will still lose around 10-15k given these ASSUMPTIONS, but instead my family will be in a better position than we are at the moment. Plus, I can afford it.

are ypou mathematically illiterate or something? why are you called statistician when yo8u cannot do basic financial maths?

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Yes, I appreciate your point. But at the same time I have to live somewhere. If I do not buy I have to rent. I have a repayment mortgage and make use of low interest rates. Imagine the prices go down another 10% (this is just an ASSUMPTION some might think it will go down more or less). I would lose around 25k. On the other hand if I rent I would have to pay almost 10k more on my rent compared with my interest payments for the same property. In this case, yes I will still lose around 10-15k given these ASSUMPTIONS, but instead my family will be in a better position than we are at the moment. Plus, I can afford it.

LTV?

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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