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IMupNorth

Hpc Straw Clutchers, Why Don't You Just Admit It ....

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So, the Halifax reports a much bigger rise than anyone was expecting.

Mortgage lending and volumes going back up.

Properties are selling all over the place.

Even the bears delight of Hometrack can only come up with a 0.1% fall in the month.

Unemployment only edges up a fraction. IR's stay low, immigration is an open door policy etc etc etc.

Why can't you mentalist bears just admit, that the market isn't crashing and the conditions just don't exist for it to crash for the forseeable future. I reckon you've at least a 12 month wait ahead before the market has a chance of crashing. Too many people have too much cash at their disposal = NO Crash. Until that changes you all should go and find yourself decent hobbies rather than wasting hours on this bulletin board.

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I don't disagree that most of us will still have to wait a few months - though the market appears to have turned in my part of Wales - it's been a long wait. I look forward to corresponding with you in October 2006!

Edited by gruffydd

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You seem to take a macabre delight in the prospect of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of FTBs continuing to be excluded from having a home of their own. What do you do in your spare time, torture sick puppies? :angry:

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you all should go and find yourself decent hobbies rather than wasting hours on this bulletin board.

You're right about that. But if you think there's a chance of a crash in 12 months, what would you have people do? Get in there now and buy so as to make absolutely sure they get in neg eq? 12 months sounds pretty soon to me.

As a matter of interest, what d'you think's going to bring it down? What's going to happen in the intervening period?

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So, the Halifax reports a much bigger rise than anyone was expecting.

Mortgage lending and volumes going back up.

Properties are selling all over the place.

Even the bears delight of Hometrack can only come up with a 0.1% fall in the month.

Unemployment only edges up a fraction. IR's stay low, immigration is an open door policy etc etc etc.

Why can't you mentalist bears just admit, that the market isn't crashing and the conditions just don't exist for it to crash for the forseeable future. I reckon you've at least a 12 month wait ahead before the market has a chance of crashing. Too many people have too much cash at their disposal = NO Crash. Until that changes you all should go and find yourself decent hobbies rather than wasting hours on this bulletin board.

Okay, here's the deal.

A ball is travelling upwards at a speed of 25 m/s.

HP inflation is running at 25% YOY.

The rate of change of the velocity of ball is - 10 m per second per second

The rate of change of HP inflation is roughly - 22% per year per year (based on last years against a year later)

What happens to the ball soon? What happens to the price of houses soon?

Edited by Card

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I have no concerns over the Halifax figures. Where I'm living I can see prices coming down and it's a lot more than 0.1% per month. In the last few weeks alone several properties I've had my eye on have been reduced by the £40k mark (£600k to £700k price range). Admitedly the veryy good stock is still selling for very high prices. But everything else is just sticking.

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You seem to take a macabre delight in the prospect of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of FTBs continuing to be excluded from having a home of their own. What do you do in your spare time, torture sick puppies? :angry:

err when did I say that then ??????????!!!!!!!!

Typical reaction from someone on HPC who can't stand to hear an opposite view - immediately try and make out that the person is mad. Plonker.

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So, the Halifax reports a much bigger rise than anyone was expecting.

Mortgage lending and volumes going back up.

Properties are selling all over the place.

Even the bears delight of Hometrack can only come up with a 0.1% fall in the month.

Unemployment only edges up a fraction. IR's stay low, immigration is an open door policy etc etc etc.

Why can't you mentalist bears just admit, that the market isn't crashing and the conditions just don't exist for it to crash for the forseeable future. I reckon you've at least a 12 month wait ahead before the market has a chance of crashing. Too many people have too much cash at their disposal = NO Crash. Until that changes you all should go and find yourself decent hobbies rather than wasting hours on this bulletin board.

Err even if I have to wait another 12 months to see massive falls I am prepared to wait. You really think buying now just to see your deposit and financial future disappear up some baby boomers / property speculators **** in 12 months time is sound advice. I dont want to own property at these prices... what do you find hard to understand? :lol::lol::lol::P

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You're right about that. But if you think there's a chance of a crash in 12 months, what would you have people do? Get in there now and buy so as to make absolutely sure they get in neg eq? 12 months sounds pretty soon to me.

As a matter of interest, what d'you think's going to bring it down? What's going to happen in the intervening period?

I think the conditions to start a crash are a rise in IRs to 6% and or unemployment doubling from where it is now. That should create enough financial pain to create forced sellers, such that they really do fight amongst themselves to get their property sold.

So, I don't see that happening in the next 12 months - do you ?? At the moment there is loads of cash washing round the economy.

Soonest, I could possibly conceive, is more than 12 months from now.

Personally, I think IRs will go down, ever so slowly though and we will have a very long stagnation where unemployment just keeps edging up. House prices overall will stagnate or perhaps drop 2-3% per year at the most. I suppose that will be jumped upon as a crash by the HPC experts in due course.

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At the moment there is loads of cash washing round the economy.

But very little of it is going into the high street :) High IR's are not needed if unemployment rises enough.

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Err even if I have to wait another 12 months to see massive falls I am prepared to wait. You really think buying now just to see your deposit and financial future disappear up some baby boomers / property speculators **** in 12 months time is sound advice. I dont want to own property at these prices... what do you find hard to understand? :lol::lol::lol::P

I don't find that hard to understand, in fact it makes perfect sense to me. Funny though how you construe what I've written to mean that 'I don't understand' - me thinks you're a bit highly strung. Take some chill pills and keep renting until you feel comfortable with the situation.

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Too many people have too much cash at their disposal = NO Crash.

And the wads of cash at their disposal is...

... in debt!

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So, the Halifax reports a much bigger rise than anyone was expecting.

Mortgage lending and volumes going back up.

Properties are selling all over the place.

Even the bears delight of Hometrack can only come up with a 0.1% fall in the month.

Unemployment only edges up a fraction. IR's stay low, immigration is an open door policy etc etc etc.

Why can't you mentalist bears just admit, that the market isn't crashing and the conditions just don't exist for it to crash for the forseeable future. I reckon you've at least a 12 month wait ahead before the market has a chance of crashing. Too many people have too much cash at their disposal = NO Crash. Until that changes you all should go and find yourself decent hobbies rather than wasting hours on this bulletin board.

Thank you IMupNorth, we need you more than ever. We ordered a batch of 200 bulls last month but we got conned. It turned out that they had all had IQ's of over 30 and converted to bears within hours of reading the posts on this site. As far as we can workout there are only three genuine bulls left in the UK and two of them have the nick name Mono. Please post some more of soft landing stuff. We are desperate for this kind of material.

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you guys crack me up :lol: my flatmates think i'm a crazy loon when i laugh like that over me laptop.

IMUpNorth - crash is here mate - its not even up for debate anymore - hence the japes and arsing about by some of our more immature members.

obviously as one of the grown up intellectuals round here - i can't condone it myself ;)

edit - arr now i look foolish - the thing i was laffing at dissapeared! oh well :)

Edited by dunroamin

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All that cash that is "washing around the economy" is now finding it's way into savings vehicles.

People are starting to grasp that there are troubled times ahead and are battening down the hatches.

We WILL have our crash!

NDL

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Why not admit it. Because the evidence is that house prices are going down, and anyone who refuses to accept it is stuck with whatever they are holding. Check all the expat threads.

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err when did I say that then ??????????!!!!!!!!

Typical reaction from someone on HPC who can't stand to hear an opposite view - immediately try and make out that the person is mad. Plonker.

. . . or even worse, bad. I really can't understand the histrionics and hyperbole that people use. I can only assume its the medium.

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there is certainly evidence of a mild revival in s. lincs. judging by the number of sold signs that have finally appeared after months of for sale signs. a few have 'sold' twice now after apparently falling thru. make of this what you will.

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Unemployment only edges up a fraction.

For now...

If growth fails to accelerate in the final three months of the year, full-year growth for 2005 would be as low as 1.3 per cent — the worst since the end of the last recession.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1815012,00.html

The way things are going 2006 will be Recession Recession Recession

Edited by munimula

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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