Lepista Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Forex is predicting a rise of 0.5% this month. What on earth do they do to analyse and suggest such numbers? they can't be any more educated than our guesses. ...On that note, what are your guesses for tomorrows announcement? I'm going for 0.0% (thought I'd get in there first!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (edited) Down Down Down....in case no one has noticed, (asking) prices are going down fast at the moment. Edited September 5, 2011 by TheCountOfNowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olliegog Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 -0.8% (just a guess ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SavingBear Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 -1.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WageslaveX14 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It's impossible for us to have any idea what the Halifax figures will be. As I understand it, the Forex figure is just the average of what others, who exactly the same information as us (i.e. none), have guessed the Halifax figures to be. The Forex figure isn't the 'market' expectation, as it isn't based on what participants in the actual market (i.e. those actually buying houses rather than betting on price moves) are doing. As such, it's pretty meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beccles Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 +0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@contradevian Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 +1.8% As I don't believe a thing I read these days. You might as well discuss the Hogwarts economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaspers Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 +1.7 Mortgage approvals still in positive HPI territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I always get this wrong, is it asking prices or mortgage prices ? Asking : + 1.5% Mortgages: + 0.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCNUTTISH Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 -0.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFlibble Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Down Down Down....in case no one has noticed, (asking) prices are going down fast at the moment. The area I look at they are stagnant (the optimists) and slightly down (the optimists with a tinge of enthusiasm to sell). So far I've only seen a couple of big falls (the realists). The trouble with the housing figures is they are about as believable as the inflation numbers. That said, I'll guess -0.8%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 +1.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Forex factory still has this down as being released 6th - 8th. Are you sure it's out tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (edited) The area I look at they are stagnant (the optimists) and slightly down (the optimists with a tinge of enthusiasm to sell). So far I've only seen a couple of big falls (the realists). The trouble with the housing figures is they are about as believable as the inflation numbers. That said, I'll guess -0.8%. The market always falls off a cliff during the August holiday. On my barometer walk (counting signs) sales had fallen to a low for this year of 13/100 by the end of the month. (20% sold is about normal and about 25% for the Spring bounce, well normal for the present desperate market). I don't think the seasoning is sufficient to take into account this perennial lull and it will be probably down about 0.3%. The fact that we are now in a perennial spring bounce and autumn collapse highlights the poor quality of seasoning. The YOY figures would suggest we are flat -lining nominally, and better seasoning would have shown no movement for the last twelve monthly figures. Edited September 5, 2011 by crashmonitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 There will be the usual nonsense pushing it up but against that people seem to have been a little less deluded about the state of things recently. I'm guessing at a balancing out so 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (edited) The market always falls off a cliff during the August holiday. On my barometer walk (counting signs) sales had fallen to a low for this year of 13/100 by the end of the month. (20% sold is about normal and about 25% for the Spring bounce, well normal for the present desperate market). I don't think the seasoning is sufficient to take into account this perennial lull and it will be probably down about 0.3%. The fact that we are now in a perennial spring bounce and autumn collapse highlights the poor quality of seasoning. The YOY figures would suggest we are flat -lining nominally, and better seasoning would have shown no movement for the last twelve monthly figures. In fact the poor quality of seasoning has been manna from heaven for the Express who have extracted figures from a perennial spring bounce to manipulate headlines and suggest house prices are booming against the reality of a market which on an annual basis was slightly down. Edited September 5, 2011 by crashmonitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RufflesTheGuineaPig Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 What's the margin for error on figures like this.... 2-5%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biddyboy Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 -1.6 Seasonally adjusted to -0.3 due to Hurricane Katrina and the FIFA world cup! :angry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitofdoom Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 +0% As he is only 8 miles down the road it would be churlish to disagree,such a lovely avatar too.I can personally vouch for the fact that she is just as attractive in real life,saw her in The Priory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonboy2010 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Up as Nationwide went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 If it is out tomorrow, it will be positive. Negative numbers are normally released to coincide with the day the MPC meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 If it is out tomorrow, it will be positive. Negative numbers are normally released to coincide with the day the MPC meet. Positive are released after the MPC meeting. Last month was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Nationwide was up so Halifax down? They often take it in turns, obfuscation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terribad Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Anecdotally I'm going for positive, so +0.5 ish. Lots of young folk I know are throwing granny's money at houses "cos they're cheaper now", and offering the asking price because "thats how much it costs" ... like buying a tin of coke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitofdoom Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Anecdotally I'm going for positive, so +0.5 ish. Lots of young folk I know are throwing granny's money at houses "cos they're cheaper now", and offering the asking price because "thats how much it costs" ... like buying a tin of coke. A flurry of sold boards around here.Of course I don't know what the figures are but it looks like the busiest yet in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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