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Lepista

Halifax Figures Predictions

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Forex is predicting a rise of 0.5% this month. What on earth do they do to analyse and suggest such numbers? they can't be any more educated than our guesses.

...On that note, what are your guesses for tomorrows announcement?

I'm going for 0.0% (thought I'd get in there first!)

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It's impossible for us to have any idea what the Halifax figures will be.

As I understand it, the Forex figure is just the average of what others, who exactly the same information as us (i.e. none), have guessed the Halifax figures to be. The Forex figure isn't the 'market' expectation, as it isn't based on what participants in the actual market (i.e. those actually buying houses rather than betting on price moves) are doing.

As such, it's pretty meaningless.

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Down Down Down....in case no one has noticed, (asking) prices are going down fast at the moment.

The area I look at they are stagnant (the optimists) and slightly down (the optimists with a tinge of enthusiasm to sell). So far I've only seen a couple of big falls (the realists).

The trouble with the housing figures is they are about as believable as the inflation numbers.

That said, I'll guess -0.8%.

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The area I look at they are stagnant (the optimists) and slightly down (the optimists with a tinge of enthusiasm to sell). So far I've only seen a couple of big falls (the realists).

The trouble with the housing figures is they are about as believable as the inflation numbers.

That said, I'll guess -0.8%.

The market always falls off a cliff during the August holiday. On my barometer walk (counting signs) sales had fallen to a low for this year of 13/100 by the end of the month. (20% sold is about normal and about 25% for the Spring bounce, well normal for the present desperate market).

I don't think the seasoning is sufficient to take into account this perennial lull and it will be probably down about 0.3%. The fact that we are now in a perennial spring bounce and autumn collapse highlights the poor quality of seasoning. The YOY figures would suggest we are flat -lining nominally, and better seasoning would have shown no movement for the last twelve monthly figures.

Edited by crashmonitor

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There will be the usual nonsense pushing it up but against that people seem to have been a little less deluded about the state of things recently. I'm guessing at a balancing out so 0%.

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The market always falls off a cliff during the August holiday. On my barometer walk (counting signs) sales had fallen to a low for this year of 13/100 by the end of the month. (20% sold is about normal and about 25% for the Spring bounce, well normal for the present desperate market).

I don't think the seasoning is sufficient to take into account this perennial lull and it will be probably down about 0.3%. The fact that we are now in a perennial spring bounce and autumn collapse highlights the poor quality of seasoning. The YOY figures would suggest we are flat -lining nominally, and better seasoning would have shown no movement for the last twelve monthly figures.

In fact the poor quality of seasoning has been manna from heaven for the Express who have extracted figures from a perennial spring bounce to manipulate headlines and suggest house prices are booming against the reality of a market which on an annual basis was slightly down.

Edited by crashmonitor

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+0%

As he is only 8 miles down the road it would be churlish to disagree,such a lovely avatar too.I can personally vouch for the fact that she is just as attractive in real life,saw her in The Priory.

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If it is out tomorrow, it will be positive. Negative numbers are normally released to coincide with the day the MPC meet.

Positive are released after the MPC meeting. Last month was.

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Anecdotally I'm going for positive, so +0.5 ish. Lots of young folk I know are throwing granny's money at houses "cos they're cheaper now", and offering the asking price because "thats how much it costs" ... like buying a tin of coke.

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Anecdotally I'm going for positive, so +0.5 ish. Lots of young folk I know are throwing granny's money at houses "cos they're cheaper now", and offering the asking price because "thats how much it costs" ... like buying a tin of coke.

A flurry of sold boards around here.Of course I don't know what the figures are but it looks like the busiest yet in 2011.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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