Osborne Warns Of 'great Contraction'

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2034509/Osborne-warns-Great-Contraction-Britain-faces-slow-growth--hes-sticking-austerity-plans.html

Britain is living through a ‘Great Contraction’ which will mean lower than expected growth – but would face disaster if it shifted course from tough austerity measures, George Osborne said last night.

The Chancellor gave his clearest signal yet that official forecasts for recovery will have to be downgraded later this year, admitting: ‘We have all had to revise down our short-term expectations over recent weeks.’

Mr Osborne blamed Labour’s mismanagement of the economy – arguing that the ‘overhang of debt’ meant the recovery from the financial crisis was ‘slower and choppier’ than recoveries from other kinds of recession.

‘That’s why economists… have called the period we are living through the “Great Contraction”,’ the Chancellor said.

The Great Contraction? It would appear this is the latest buzzword, crisis, depression, recession and now contraction.

Looks like the end of the year is going to be economically very difficult, luckily the govt won't have spent the money it hasn't got on forecasts which have turned out to be crap.

[OnlyMe]

Almost no economist saw problems in the debt fuelled, economically self immolating binge of the last decade.

More like the Big Lie - big lies from the government(s), big lies from the central bank, big lies about inflation, growth, globalisation, jobs, immigration, education in fact almost every facet of the economy and the population.

That is where we are, and why we are here.

[Milton]

The Great Contraction? It would appear this is the latest buzzword, crisis, depression, recession and now contraction.

Looks like the end of the year is going to be economically very difficult, luckily the govt won't have spent the money it hasn't got on forecasts which have turned out to be crap.

Thats not news for me. They purposefully announce these things, a year or two after everyone already knows about them. Which just about sums up Governments worth.

Ive has a steady trickle of work for over twelve years, barring the last eighteen months. When it has dried up completely.

Been living off the savings. Rapidly dwindling. And I know I'm not alone.

I wish Id got out of this godforsaken country at the beginning of the housing bubble. They screwed me on the way, up, now they'll screw me on the way down.

This keeps occuring until you expire.

Edited September 7, 2011 by Milton

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14814673

He told the Lloyd's of London audience: "While we have all had to revise down our short-term expectations over recent weeks, the only people who should be fundamentally re-examining their view of the world are those who thought that this time was different."

He said his programme was strong enough to withstand some economic buffeting, saying: "We set in train a plan that was comprehensive and clear in its vision, but also flexible enough to withstand shocks along the way."

He also claimed the UK was thinking ahead better than its European rivals: "We had an emergency budget last summer on our own terms - not this summer on the market's terms - unlike so many other countries."

Earlier, the shadow chancellor Ed Balls said: "It's time George Osborne got out of his denial and admitted that Britain now faces a growth crisis, as a senior minister let slip this week. And he should listen to the head of the IMF and one of the largest investment funds in the world [Pimco]who have warned that cutting too far and too fast risks economic recovery."

Ed wanting more printy printy to solve the debt crisis. We have a growth crisis because there's too much debt. I'd love to see Ed working in a debt advice agency as he'd clearly advice those in trouble to spend even more money on credit and dig themselves into a deeper hole.

[winkie]

What I would like to know is WHY we have to continuously grow?...standing still is fine as long as we don't go backwards.

Much of this recent growth was only grown/fueled from debt...reducing, repaying debt and it is only natural that growth will slow I would call it pay back time.

[interestrateripoff]

Is the world doomed to suffer another Depression?

Against this grim backdrop, the cacophony of voices arguing that governments and central banks change tack, postpone fiscal consolidation and crank up the printing presses again grows steadily louder. To the scratched record of Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, and the neo-Keynesian economists he takes his cue from, must be added Christine Lagarde, the newly installed managing director of the International Monetary Fund, John Cridland, director general of the CBI, and Bill Gross, head of the world’s largest bond fund, Pimco.

Little more than two years ago, Mr Gross claimed that Britain was sitting on a bed of nitroglycerine unless it took action on the deficit. He has changed his mind. Now he thinks there is scope for rescheduling of the austerity programme so as to avoid recession.

I love how this idea keeps cropping up that we can avoid recession, we've been avoiding recession for at least a decade now with politicians trying to avoid it. All they have successfully done is create the prospect of an even bigger recession.

[tahoma]

What I would like to know is WHY we have to continuously grow?...standing still is fine as long as we don't go backwards.

Much of this recent growth was only grown/fueled from debt...reducing, repaying debt and it is only natural that growth will slow I would call it pay back time.

You answered your own question. Money is instroduced to the economy as debt, and it has to be paid back with interest. So you need to grow the economy by at least the anount of interest charged on the debt, or you are effectively going backwards.

[Bloo Loo]

To be fair, although we may not like his background, or his lips, he does at least understand the problems he is facing.

Of course he has to balance what he says between trying to get the public to face reality and really scaring the sh*t out of everybody and the markets.

actually, it would do a lot of good to scare the shit out of everybody...bit like having a common enemy...instead of the Arab with beard and dark skin, it would be waste and cronyism in the government sectors, and money for stealing banking thieves.

We could all fight the good fight.

[OnlyMe]

Is the world doomed to suffer another Depression?

I love how this idea keeps cropping up that we can avoid recession, we've been avoiding recession for at least a decade now with politicians trying to avoid it. All they have successfully done is create the prospect of an even bigger recession.

They've done a LOT more damage than that - look at manufacturng, whole sectors destroyed, exported all the skills and equipment in many sectors leaving no capacity or ability to recover. Between them the govt and the banking system have done one on the uk economy, all they are doing now is trying to whitewash over the problem of their own making to avoid responsibility for this mess - knighthood material for services rendered to keep it covered up.

[Bloo Loo]

You answered your own question. Money is instroduced to the economy as debt, and it has to be paid back with interest. So you need to grow the economy by at least the anount of interest charged on the debt, or you are effectively going backwards.

no, you mean a banker wont get paid...wealth creation NEVER goes backward....you either create, or you dont....you can of course DESTROY too....

[inflating]

More like The Great Contradiction !

[Terribad]

What I would like to know is WHY we have to continuously grow?...standing still is fine as long as we don't go backwards.

Much of this recent growth was only grown/fueled from debt...reducing, repaying debt and it is only natural that growth will slow I would call it pay back time.

Ceteris paribus, there should always be a little bit of growth simply because people get beter at stuff, even without debt. Around 1-2% proper growth is healthy and normal, whereas zero would be a signal of something being not right.

Couldn't disagree more with the "why must there be growth" stuff on this site.

[interestrateripoff]

Ceteris paribus, there should always be a little bit of growth simply because people get beter at stuff, even without debt. Around 1-2% proper growth is healthy and normal, whereas zero would be a signal of something being not right.

Couldn't disagree more with the "why must there be growth" stuff on this site.

So you like exponential then?

[tahoma]

no, you mean a banker wont get paid...wealth creation NEVER goes backward....you either create, or you dont....you can of course DESTROY too....

If the banker does not get interest, why would they lend money? Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Wealth creation can cease. What do you want to destroy?

[Terribad]

So you like exponential then?

Long term growth was positive long before credit availability. Specialisation is what made mankind seperate from the animals, and we have been growing since the year dot. To say growth is not the norm is simply denial.

Growth isn't some kind of 20th century invention. we've been doing it naturally for millions of years.

[Injin]

If the banker does not get interest, why would they lend money? Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Wealth creation can cease. What do you want to destroy?

If money was a real world good, they might lend to maintain it at someone elses expense.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Long term growth was positive long before credit availability. Specialisation is what made mankind seperate from the animals, and we have been growing since the year dot. To say growth is not the norm is simply denial.

Growth isn't some kind of 20th century invention. we've been doing it naturally for millions of years.

Long term Growth is not the same as constant Growth, history is proliferated with periods of expansion and contraction (the expansion is always greater than the contraction making net expansion but it aint a constant, the periods of contraction are pretty much a necessity for expansion and relative to the expansion in size(learning experience from mistakes). Society is prone to get ahead of itself during growth and becomes complacent, the following contraction is just as important as the growth that it follows and sets up the growwth phase that follows it, to suggest it is a smooth constant bears little relationship to history,

Edited September 7, 2011 by Tamara De Lempicka

[MrFlibble]

Great contraction for the little man, great big pile of money for his elite chums who keep creating digital money out of thin air and charging interest on it.

It's time we told these Muppets to F.O.

[corevalue]

Long term growth was positive long before credit availability. Specialisation is what made mankind seperate from the animals, and we have been growing since the year dot. To say growth is not the norm is simply denial.

Growth isn't some kind of 20th century invention. we've been doing it naturally for millions of years.

I think you confuse the growth of tangible goods with the growth of Injin fantasy tokens to pay for them. We are evidently in the phase of the latter, to disguise contraction of the former.

[interestrateripoff]

Oh dear - you've done it now. Someone is going to come along and try and explain to you why 2% compounding is not the same as 'exponential'. I suggest you quickly get a maths text book and be prepared to defend your assertion.

I can't be arsed being as ******** as that...

[Terribad]

I think you confuse the growth of tangible goods with the growth of Injin fantasy tokens to pay for them. We are evidently in the phase of the latter, to disguise contraction of the former.

I'm talking about long term growth. Its fine to see flat or negative growth now and then if its due to poor allocation of resources, but the long term trend is up. Always has been, otherwise we'd still be foraging for berries.

My gripe is not that people are saying we should not see growth NOW, but EVER.

[MrFlibble]

I think you confuse the growth of tangible goods with the growth of Injin fantasy tokens to pay for them. We are evidently in the phase of the latter, to disguise contraction of the former.

+1

You cannot have infinite growth on a planet with finite resources, but you sure as hell can pretend to have it...

[interestrateripoff]

I'm talking about long term growth. Its fine to see flat or negative growth now and then if its due to poor allocation of resources, but the long term trend is up. Always has been, otherwise we'd still be foraging for berries.

My gripe is not that people are saying we should not see growth NOW, but EVER.

My gripe is that people are saying we should never see contraction.

[Terribad]

My gripe is that people are saying we should never see contraction.

Agreed.

[MrFlibble]

I'm talking about long term growth. Its fine to see flat or negative growth now and then if its due to poor allocation of resources, but the long term trend is up. Always has been, otherwise we'd still be foraging for berries.

My gripe is not that people are saying we should not see growth NOW, but EVER.

Having more of something that is worth less isn't growth, it's merely the illusion of growth.