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EmpiricalBear

What Will The Depression Be Like

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It seems increasingly that we are in for if not a 30's style depression, then at least a newer form of the beast.

If this is the case. Then what will this be like, particularly for the housing market. What will happen to interest rates through a depression? Will they necessarily stay low.

I'm assuming it will be a gradual progression of joblessness, greyness and falling asset prices. It won't take more than another five years for people finally to reach the opinion finally that increases in house prices are not a law of nature but that this might change.

A friend of mine bought a rural ruin in Northern france for approx 50k in the late 1980's then spent £300k over the years rebuilding it and its associated barn. He's planning to sell it for around what he paid for it. You see, property in France doesn't necessarily rise in price and there's less expectation that it will. If that psychology got embedded in the UK what a different place it would be.

Edited by EmpiricalBear

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Bear tinted specs I'd hazzard. Arguably half way through it, so might get a bit worse.

Personally I'm riding it out in a ring-fenced corner of the public sector, riding a sacred cow. B)

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It's surviving on £53.45 - £67.50 a week in a high inflation economy. Pretty similar to the boom times for the precariat, but you might have to survive longer without work.

You'll have to wait longer for an allotment, and the chance of finding a demijohn outside the local supermarket glass recycling bin will be next to nothing.

Living near farmland where you can steal food is advantageous, when buying a property, consider your food thieving opportunities!

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I was under the impression that despite the french lending system, they have had a bubble of sorts in their HP too?

They have. Paris is nuts.

It's out in the sticks that prices have stayed low, as lax planning rules (by UK standards) mean that it's (relatively) easy to buy a plot from a farmer and build a house on it; this stops prices from going into orbit.

EDIT: clarity.

Edited by DeepLurker

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What Will The Depression Be Like

Ah that old chestnut.

Will it be INFLATIONARY (Weimar) or DEFLATIONARY (US 1930s)?

The strategy to deal with these outcomes will be different, and can mean the difference between becoming poor or doing OK.

---

Today I was in the bank, and an elderly frail man on crutches who was partly blind and deaf was being served. Whilst I was in the queue, I noticed he was selling his bonds, closing the account and moving it into his wife's joint savings/cash account, probably to spend it. I overheard all this including "this is a large amount".

Look at what these low interest rates/high inflation policies are doing to us... the top should be utterly ashamed.

Edited by Money Spinner

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Best to have a solid asset like a house as long as you have a Job to pay for it, I would not want a lot of savings depreciating in the bank so I am buying now, rent will just go up.

It will be nothing like the 1930's. Its slow growth here and abroad. Not the whole world is facing this problem only really the euro zone and USA, need to just refocus on emerging markets such as Brazil and India. Growth is occurring all over the place we have just become fixated with the collapsed banking economy that is not the real economy of actual goods and services

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Today I was in the bank, and an elderly frail man on crutches who was partly blind and deaf was being served. Whilst I was in the queue, I noticed he was selling his bonds, closing the account and moving it into his wife's joint savings/cash account, probably to spend it. I overheard all this including "this is a large amount".

Look at what these low interest rates/high inflation policies are doing to us... the top should be utterly ashamed.

One of the reasons I still like to personally visit the bank because I'm a nosy bugger. The modern open plan layout of the counters and help/advice counters don't help here - who on earth designed them?!

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Well Europe is making small steps along the road to stopping being a free trade zone as they are considering scrapping schengen.

Watch out for overtly protectionist steps next.

The silver lining may be that the UK gets out of the EU finally.

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What Will The Depression Be Like

Ah that old chestnut.

Will it be INFLATIONARY (Weimar) or DEFLATIONARY (US 1930s)?

The strategy to deal with these outcomes will be different, and can mean the difference between becoming poor or doing OK.

---

Today I was in the bank, and an elderly frail man on crutches who was partly blind and deaf was being served. Whilst I was in the queue, I noticed he was selling his bonds, closing the account and moving it into his wife's joint savings/cash account, probably to spend it. I overheard all this including "this is a large amount".

Look at what these low interest rates/high inflation policies are doing to us... the top should be utterly ashamed.

Ah but, like most things, life is like a fine balance...'the top' can't afford to be ashamed when the scales are starting to lean that far down to a precarious position where the falling feeling of less wealth and security will tip the balance to a point where 'the top' will be unable to ignore it....if they do their own security could be at risk.

...it is one thing going up in the world, but coming down sharply is hard to take and a hard lesson to learn. ;)

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It seems increasingly that we are in for if not a 30's style depression, then at least a newer form of the beast.

If this is the case. Then what will this be like, particularly for the housing market. What will happen to interest rates through a depression? Will they necessarily stay low.

I'm assuming it will be a gradual progression of joblessness, greyness and falling asset prices. It won't take more than another five years for people finally to reach the opinion finally that increases in house prices are not a law of nature but that this might change.

A friend of mine bought a rural ruin in Northern france for approx 50k in the late 1980's then spent £300k over the years rebuilding it and its associated barn. He's planning to sell it for around what he paid for it. You see, property in France doesn't necessarily rise in price and there's less expectation that it will. If that psychology got embedded in the UK what a different place it would be.

im hoping to get my golf handicap into single figures before its done but it wont be easy as the courses are few and far between over here

Edited by Tamara De Lempicka

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Ah but, like most things, life is like a fine balance...'the top' can't afford to be ashamed when the scales are starting to lean that far down to a precarious position where the falling feeling of less wealth and security will tip the balance to a point where 'the top' will be unable to ignore it....if they do their own security could be at risk.

...it is one thing going up in the world, but coming down sharply is hard to take and a hard lesson to learn. ;)

Probably why most of the top (look across nearly all aspects of western life) have been feathering their own nests the last few years. Nor are they afraid to eat each other. Rome is burning.

Edited by Money Spinner

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I was under the impression that despite the french lending system, they have had a bubble of sorts in their HP too?

They are very reasonable compared to the UK. Just got back from there and outside Paris it's between 25 and 50% of a UK price on comparable property. So much room, and it feels like few cars on the roads and lots of lovely stone built homes for sale.

As for this recession, I think we will shave up to 30 years off living standards.

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It's just like it is at the moment, only continuing indefinitely through never-ending denial.

To quote Bob Dylan:

'Inside the museums, Infinity goes up on trial

Voices echo this is what, salvation must be like after a while'

Until . .

'The fiddler, he now steps to the road

He writes ev'rything's been returned which was owed

On the back of the fish truck that loads

While my conscience explodes'

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Braziers, there will be loads of braziers. And more flat caps.

Maxi skirts, kipper ties and large collars....the say depressions bring out the best in people...back to life back to reality. ;)

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Braziers, there will be loads of braziers. And more flat caps.

The baby boomer demographic will be interesting. Will they sell their properties or pass them on to their children? If the latter, we could see a rise in the "landed-class" vs. "the renter."

A depression will mean less energy consumption. Lower car ownership.

Immigration is a wild card. People will tend to shift to where there is work.

People will use the Internet (podcasts, video clips, music files) more for entertainment.

The rich will do well, being able to buy productive assets cheaper.

So many variables.... A big factor will be the mentality of the people: will they believe in self-help or will they turn to Big Government to help them. Will they vote for a charasmatic leader to "solve all their problems"?

Society may become less consumer-oriented and "rediscover" the joys of community, family, education and art.

The new mantra will be: "Make-it-last, fix-it-up, use-it-all, go without."

Edited by Odakyu-sen

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Wages static, jobless numbers increase, businesses go bust, currency devalued, influence on world stage decrease, pensions insufficient to sustain aging populace, tax increases, more satellite tv antennas, more no win no fee ads, more "quick quid" ads.

The kids will be thicker and HAVE to go to Uni to get a cleaners job (thus keeping the ineffective academic bubble inflated at least) and so taking on a lifetimes worth of debt.

More hoodies, more riots, more crime, more knock off, less Police.

Less benefits, more prostitutes, more drugs, more fences, less builders and estate agents...fewer new cars.

More sell offs to foreigners.

No NHS, more bad teeth.

All spun in a happy clappy way to keep the fat dumb and happy UK population "on message"

and more....moronic news readers, X FACTOR, Flog it, location location location type stuff on TV

GET OUT NOW!

;)

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The baby boomer demographic will be interesting. Will they sell their properties or pass them on to their children? If the latter, we could see a rise in the "landed-class" vs. "the renter."

A depression will mean less energy consumption. Lower car ownership.

Immigration is a wild card. People will tend to shift to where there is work.

People will use the Internet (podcasts, video clips, music files) more for entertainment.

The rich will do well, being able to buy productive assets cheaper.

So many variables.... A big factor will be the mentality of the people: will they believe in self-help or will they turn to Big Government to help them. Will they vote for a charasmatic leader to "solve all their problems"?

I don't think many realised what they did when they MEW'd

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The baby boomer demographic will be interesting. Will they sell their properties or pass them on to their children? If the latter, we could see a rise in the "landed-class" vs. "the renter."

You also have to consider that most families who had children born in the seventies had more than one child.

I have two siblings

Aviva released a study this year, stating that it now costs an average of £271k to raise one child to the age of 21...!!!

Homes with just one child now make up 46 per cent of all families and could soon be in the majority of the current trend continues.

Currently there are some 3.43 million homes with only-children and 2.91 million with two youngsters.

Couples are putting off having children, 'settling down' which is a direct result of high house prices.

Edited by Milton

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One of the reasons I still like to personally visit the bank because I'm a nosy bugger. The modern open plan layout of the counters and help/advice counters don't help here - who on earth designed them?!

I believe it came from America.

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  • 331 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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