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Ubs Quantifies Costs Of Euro Break Up, Warns Of Collapse Of Banking System And Civil War

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Euro break-up – the consequences

The Euro should not exist (like this)

Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not

work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership

will have to change.

Fiscal confederation, not break-up

Our base case with an overwhelming probability is that the Euro moves slowly

(and painfully) towards some kind of fiscal integration. The risk case, of break-up,

is considerably more costly and close to zero probability. Countries can not be

expelled, but sovereign states could choose to secede. However, popular discussion

of the break-up option considerably underestimates the consequences of such a


The economic cost (part 1)

The cost of a weak country leaving the Euro is significant. Consequences include

sovereign default, corporate default, collapse of the banking system and collapse of

international trade. There is little prospect of devaluation offering much assistance.

We estimate that a weak Euro country leaving the Euro would incur a cost of

around EUR9,500 to EUR11,500 per person in the exiting country during the first

year. That cost would then probably amount to EUR3,000 to EUR4,000 per person

per year over subsequent years. That equates to a range of 40% to 50% of GDP in

the first year.

The economic cost (part 2)

Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences

would include corporate default, recapitalisation of the banking system and

collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be

around EUR6,000 to EUR8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year,

and a range of EUR3,500 to EUR4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the

equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. In comparison, the cost of

bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those

countries would be a little over EUR1,000 per person, in a single hit.

The political cost

The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should

have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs.

Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of

“Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing

that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some

form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war.

Still one more bailout should stop all of this...

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Still one more bailout should stop all of this...

The Zionist Faux Jew Financiers and the illuminati deliberately set this up thru 'New York' (York=Templar/Royal Arch Masons headquarters)

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Banking Pirates persuaded bent, corrupt officials in Spain, Greece etc to borrow off-balance sheet Billions their countries could never afford to pay back,

Go after the Financiers - don't let the evil b'stards make more money out of you by rumouring civil wars.

They are the evil root and branch of our problems (with bought off 'lacky' shill Politicians)

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Do we need an opaque financial instrument that allows the elite to profit from civil war, hunger and death?

Calling Goldman Sachs, calling Goldman Sachs... :lol:

Senior Steward - Masonic Lodge Officer Duties:

His Jewel is the Cornucopia, which is an exact duplicate of the Junior Steward's Cornucopia. The Cornucopia signifies the "Horn of Plenty". It is a goat horn filled with the fresh fruits and vegetables to denote the "fruits of your labors" and represents a job well done.


The ancient religious significance of the goat in Sufi Shamanic Afghanistan is clear, as we have already noted, from the various ritual goat-burials unearthed by archaeologists Indeed, these finds have been interpreted as signifying the presence of a Central Asiatic goat-cult dating back to either the Neolithic (DUPREE 1973, 264-268) or the Bronze Age

Even today in Afghanistan there is a common expression, shakh dar at ra beyar, used when challenging someone, which means " bring out your horned one," or, in other words, your most powerful person.

There is also in Afghanistan a tradition associated with Sikandar-i-Shakh-dar, "Alexander-with-Horns " (linked with the historical Alexander the Great, who invaded Afghanistan in 326 B.c.E.). Sikandar-i-Shakh-dar is believed to have had power over demons and spirits and to have built a magical wall from an alloy of seven metals, thus preventing the invasion of ajuj and majuj (a race of demons inhabiting a realm parallel to this world).


Masons-illuminati run a 'demonic' parallel World of their own - placing themselves above Gods people!

Edited by erranta

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  • 334 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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