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1985-1993 Uk Hp Boom And Crash - A Reminder

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http://www.fanniemaefoundation.org/program...0503_boleat.pdf

Apologies if this has been posted in the past on HPC. Saw it yesterday and on reading it there are some uncanny similarities (so there should be) between the last boom/crash and this one (and with the 70-73 and 78-80 miniboom). Written by a guy from the CML back in 1994 I think.

Yes there are differences this time (there are always differences between similar or equivalent occurrences of anything!) but there are more than enough similarities and familiar macroeconomic concerns/issues.

For today's purposes, this also sheds light on the regional differences and the fact that the SE was hit first and the North later on. I see nothing inconsistent with last time around in the HBoS figures.

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http://www.fanniemaefoundation.org/program...0503_boleat.pdf

Apologies if this has been posted in the past on HPC. Saw it yesterday and on reading it there are some uncanny similarities (so there should be) between the last boom/crash and this one (and with the 70-73 and 78-80 miniboom). Written by a guy from the CML back in 1994 I think.

Yes there are differences this time (there are always differences between similar or equivalent occurrences of anything!) but there are more than enough similarities and familiar macroeconomic concerns/issues.

For today's purposes, this also sheds light on the regional differences and the fact that the SE was hit first and the North later on. I see nothing inconsistent with last time around in the HBoS figures.

eeh my parents were canny sods... bought three houses, all at market bottoms... 1970, 1982 and 1996. I hope I've inherited some of that nous.

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As I recall equities have in fact outperformed property as an investement over the long haul. That said todays 30 and 40 somethings have been screwed by successive Govt's policies which have created a collapse in equities and a bubble in property. I truely believe there is an institutional bias against the youger generation who are being set up as cash cows for today's elders who expect final salary occupational pensions, state pensions, free health care, and skyrocketing house prices; all while at the same time sat on savings that grew at 8-15% over the 80s and 90's. Its no accident that the new generation (NG) are being made to pay for others expenses and it amazes me how few NGs are savvy enought to realise and fight back. With the Conservative party elections looming NGs should be making it very clear their votes will only go to the party having enough guts to deal with the problem.

The irony is that I can recall Frank Fields warning us all, in I would guess the late 80s or early 90s. Was it Weekend World with Brian Walden? Hows that for memory! Where are the politicians with the tenacity and brilliance of Walden?

eeh my parents were canny sods... bought three houses, all at market bottoms... 1970, 1982 and 1996. I hope I've inherited some of that nous.

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I agree with the comment above this is a stonking good read for lunch. NOTE the fall in house prices was a telltale for the subsequent crash in equities which followed a few months later. There were earlier postings here that suggest the strongest indicator of a crash was a 3-4% increase in mortgage rates. Can someone post the history for the past 10 years - thanks

(If the link seems to fail then right mouse click and download the PDF to your desktop - its large and slow to download.)

The link doesn't work for me :( can someone repost please?

R.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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