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catmandu

The Unspeakable Truth

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Received some financial information bumf from Standard Life and they had a very small article on house prices:

Article Title: House Prices Remain Expensive"

"House prices do remain expensive on most long term measures;hence generally flat house prices look likely until income and employment growth is rather stronger"

It seems to me that the more obvious conclusion would be "hence prices are expected to fall".

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There isn't a single picture approach that can be used where house prices are concerned. I live in London and its a real mishmash. Some areas are heading downwards, with properties either sitting on the market for months or not selling even with serious discounting, which for many of us is excellent news. I actually heard a guy on LBC yesterday saying that what would bring the middle classes out on the streets is house prices crashing, which made me laugh. He said that the only thing that makes people like him happy is the knowledge that their homes are increasing in value. Well there's bad news on the horizon for some, that's for sure.

Other areas of London are holding; near me in Wimbledon and certain parts of North London there is little change, I think because overseas money is sustaining the market. But this cannot and will not be the case for all of London and of course the country at large. I have been horrified looking at some of the prices that were paid for housing in 2006 and 7. In my part of South London there are a LOT of properties in negative equity. The crash is already here.

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Received some financial information bumf from Standard Life and they had a very small article on house prices:

Article Title: House Prices Remain Expensive"

"House prices do remain expensive on most long term measures;hence generally flat house prices look likely until income and employment growth is rather stronger"

Have they been putting that same statement out for the past 8 years or did they just wake up?

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There isn't a single picture approach that can be used where house prices are concerned. I live in London and its a real mishmash. Some areas are heading downwards, with properties either sitting on the market for months or not selling even with serious discounting, which for many of us is excellent news. I actually heard a guy on LBC yesterday saying that what would bring the middle classes out on the streets is house prices crashing, which made me laugh. He said that the only thing that makes people like him happy is the knowledge that their homes are increasing in value. Well there's bad news on the horizon for some, that's for sure.

Other areas of London are holding; near me in Wimbledon and certain parts of North London there is little change, I think because overseas money is sustaining the market. But this cannot and will not be the case for all of London and of course the country at large. I have been horrified looking at some of the prices that were paid for housing in 2006 and 7. In my part of South London there are a LOT of properties in negative equity. The crash is already here.

Wapping is also booming.

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There isn't a single picture approach that can be used where house prices are concerned. I live in London and its a real mishmash. Some areas are heading downwards, with properties either sitting on the market for months or not selling even with serious discounting, which for many of us is excellent news. I actually heard a guy on LBC yesterday saying that what would bring the middle classes out on the streets is house prices crashing, which made me laugh. He said that the only thing that makes people like him happy is the knowledge that their homes are increasing in value. Well there's bad news on the horizon for some, that's for sure.

Other areas of London are holding; near me in Wimbledon and certain parts of North London there is little change, I think because overseas money is sustaining the market. But this cannot and will not be the case for all of London and of course the country at large. I have been horrified looking at some of the prices that were paid for housing in 2006 and 7. In my part of South London there are a LOT of properties in negative equity. The crash is already here.

Houses are like jobs...there will always be small enclaves where the prices seem in excess of value, like the jobs that pay excess wages that are over and above their worth.......the falling prices coincide with falling wages and high cost of living.

No house price will outshine wage and credit price. ;)

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It seems to me that the more obvious conclusion would be "hence prices are expected to fall".

Have you tried saying 'house prices might fall' out loud? I just can't say it- it's like that 'Voldamort' thing in the Harry Potter films- you find yourself looking around furtively and covering the words with a strategic cough in case anyone notices.

I used to think it was just me but it's not- no one can say it!! I have yet to hear a single concrete example of anyone saying out loud 'house prices might fall'- it's the social equivalent of standing in a thunderstorm holding a lightening conductor- just too dangerous to contemplate. :lol:

Edited by wonderpup

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I would agree that falls ought to be the outcome. But weare dealing with a rigged market of QE, planning restrictions, 0.5% base rates and bank forebearance on bad loans. I'm hoping for falls but hpi flat-lining and 5% rpi maybe the best we can hope for. At that rate it may be some time before we revisit price/earnings of 3. Possibly about 5 years down the line.

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Other areas of London are holding; near me in Wimbledon and certain parts of North London there is little change, I think because overseas money is sustaining the market. But this cannot and will not be the case for all of London and of course the country at large. I have been horrified looking at some of the prices that were paid for housing in 2006 and 7. In my part of South London there are a LOT of properties in negative equity. The crash is already here.

Instead of foreign money, could White Flight be a factor?

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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