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bkkandrew

Goldman At It Again!

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Reported here:

http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/197228.html

(Not sure if already posted, mods delete if so)

Goldman Sachs is doing it again. Goldman is telling the public that everything is going to be just fine, but meanwhile they are advising their top clients to bet on a huge financial collapse. On August 16th, a 54 page report authored by Goldman strategist Alan Brazil was distributed to institutional clients.

The general public was not intended to see this report. Fortunately, some folks over at the Wall Street Journal got their hands on a copy and they have filled us in on some of the details. It turns out that Goldman Sachs secretly believes that an economic collapse is coming, and they have some very interesting ideas about how to make money in the turbulent financial environment that we will soon be entering.

In the report, Brazil says that the U.S. debt problem cannot be solved with more debt, that the European sovereign debt crisis is going to get even worse and that there are large numbers of financial institutions in Europe that are on the verge of collapse. If this is what people at the highest levels of the financial world are talking about, perhaps we should all start paying attention.

There is a tremendous amount of fear in the global financial community right now. As I wrote about the other day, the financial world is about to hit the panic button. Things could start falling apart at any time. Most of these big banks will not admit how bad things are publicly, but privately there is a whole lot of freaking out going on.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Brazil believes that "as much as $1 trillion in capital may be needed to shore up European banks; that small businesses in the U.S., a past driver of job production, are still languishing; and that China's growthmay not be sustainable.”

Perhaps most startling of all is what the report has to say about the debt problems of the United States and Europe.

For example, this following excerpt from the report sounds like it could have come straight from The Economic Collapse Blog....

“Solving a debt problem with more debt has not solved the underlying problem. In the US, Treasury debt growth financed the US consumer but has not had enough of an impact on job growth. Can the US continue to depreciate the world's base currency?”

Remember, this statement was not written by some guy on the Internet. A top Goldman Sachs analyst put it into a report for institutional investors.

The report also goes into great detail about the financial crisis in Europe. Brazil writes about how the euro is headed for trouble and about how dozens of financial institutions in Europe could potentially be in danger of collapse.

But in any environment Goldman Sachs thinks that it can make money. The following is how Business Insider summarized the advice that Brazil gave in the report regarding how to make money off of the impending collapse in Europe....

* Buy a six-month put option on the Euro versus the Swiss Franc, thus betting the Euro will drop against the Franc (the Franc being the currency that an official Goldman report recently referred to as the most overvalued in the world).

* Buy a five-year credit default swap on an index of European corporate debt-the iTraxx 9. This is a bet that some of these companies will default, and your insurance policy, the CDS, will pay off.

This is so typical of Goldman Sachs. They will say one thing publicly and then turn around and do the total opposite privately

More at the link

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* Buy a six-month put option on the Euro versus the Swiss Franc, thus betting the Euro will drop against the Franc (the Franc being the currency that an official Goldman report recently referred to as the most overvalued in the world).

Oh yes, I am going to do exactly that because Goldman have an excellent record when it comes to advising their "top" clients: http://www.zerohedge...dmans-perfect-r Perhaps I will also buy some of their CDOs they created with my best interests in mind: http://www.marketwat...rade-2010-04-16

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Remember, this statement was not written by some guy on the Internet. A top Goldman Sachs analyst put it into a report for institutional investors.

Yes, it is a shame it was written by an institution with little credibility. Maybe he's plagiarising from here?

Edited by dom

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What's the track record of presstv.ir?

Is it more honest when talking about the West than our meeja are when (mis)reporting Iran?

A number of agencies are reporting the existence of the 54-page GS report. I think one should focus on the report rather than those who are quoting it...

Edited by bkkandrew

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The general public was not intended to see this report

Silly boy.

Taxy taxy,

Protectionism,

Cap controls

Sorted.

(Goodbye China)

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Probably best to go to the original WSJ article on the matter.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903895904576542703587784540.html

Interestingly, the WSJ allegedly has the document but has not detailed all the financial information about which particular banks and insitutions are allegedly in danger.

Responsible journalism, censorship, self-censorship or "Wow, this is cool information for us journos to know?"

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We shouldn't bash them on this.

They are just saying what we all know, yet most don't want to recognise. So no wonder they don't publish en masse. Only their big private clients are paying attention and listening.

It's interesting but all 'old' news. By that I mean the signs have been there for two or more years. Now some news stories leaking to back it up, about downgrading banks. If, or when. it happens then you would be a fool to ignore those potent signs. I for one won't be trusting all my money to one bank. I also won't be involved in the stock market.

Cue GoldBug?

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They say short the euro but the fax has been falling fastest recent ly which makes me think the market believes Germany will back the euro in larger amounts than they are already

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it doesnt strike me as a particularly strong business model to charge clients for the same information you give to everybody else for nothing

And it doesn't work either. For some to win, others must lose. The more that lose the more you may win. That's what private investors pay for. The inside track.

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Yes, it is a shame it was written by an institution with little credibility. Maybe he's plagiarising from here?

Yes and it's quite possible that A Brazil is considered a nut.

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One of the reasons of why we are where we are is that people (present company excepted) seemingly cannot read anything any more. Looking at the PowerPoint slide shown at the link reminds me of this. So called 'clever' people who cannot digest information in a form of longer that one sentence of 8 words and without a graphic to demonstrate each point.

Economics written 'Janet and John' style. What a mess.

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In the report, Brazil says that the U.S. debt problem cannot be solved with more debt, that the European sovereign debt crisis is going to get even worse and that there are large numbers of financial institutions in Europe that are on the verge of collapse.

...this is insight..?.... :rolleyes:

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Hmm... let me see...

Problem: Financial collapse is coming.

Solution: Buy some financial products.

Seriously, if financial collapse is coming do you really want to be buying put options and CDSes? When your counter-party has folded who are you going to call?

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A number of agencies are reporting the existence of the 54-page GS report. I think one should focus on the report rather than those who are quoting it...

Do you have a copy?

And it doesn't work either. For some to win, others must lose. The more that lose the more you may win. That's what private investors pay for. The inside track.

That's conventional wisdom - but, after careful research, I don't think that's what's been happening in recent years - and I don't think that's what's happening here. I think the opposite. I think that, in order to win big, you need a stampede - you need everyone and their dog chasing the same bubble... the only thing that's really relevant is when you climb on-board and your exist strategy. I think this is especially true in the context of derivatives... where the best strategy is to take a position (when it is dirt cheap to do so) - then try to persuade the world that your position is correct. Everyone who bets with you will win - though you'll win most as you'll be most leveraged... your followers will move the market and create the (previously unexpected) volatility from which you can profit. This will likely explain why there will be considerable efforts to convince people they're early enough to win big - and, for many, it might well work... assuming your understanding is not limited to your entry strategy.

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Responsible journalism, censorship, self-censorship or "Wow, this is cool information for us journos to know?"

Probably due to copyright reasons. Hence why the actual document gets released by an "untrusted" source..

But of course the intention might have been to ensure it got leaked! laugh.gif

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Probably due to copyright reasons. Hence why the actual document gets released by an "untrusted" source..

But of course the intention might have been to ensure it got leaked! laugh.gif

...it's probably a contaminated leak.... :rolleyes:

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But of course the intention might have been to ensure it got leaked! laugh.gif

Hmm, well let's see... Over the weekend Goldman 'accidentally' leaks a document recommending people buy put options betting that the Swiss Franc will rise against the Euro. Today the Swiss Franc collapses 10% against the euro.

What's the likelihood Goldman put themselves at the other side of that bet? Wouldn't be the first time GS has bet against its customers, and it wouldn't have been that hard for them to have had advance knowledge of the Swiss central bank's intervention announced today

Edited by Little Professor

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Hmm, well let's see... Over the weekend Goldman 'accidentally' leaks a document recommending people buy put options betting that the Swiss Franc will rise against the Euro. Today the Swiss Franc collapses 10% against the euro.

What's the likelihood Goldman put themselves at the other side of that bet? Wouldn't be the first time GS has bet against its customers, and it wouldn't have been that hard for them to have had advance knowledge of the Swiss central bank's intervention announced today

I couldn't remember the details but when I saw the news article on the BBC, with the accompanying graph, the 'put option' was the first thing I thought of.

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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