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Why Are Our Leaders Surprised About Unemployment

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I was reading about one city where a great steel plant was retrofitted, and instead of requiring 3,000 workers at the site, they needed something like 1,200. In the following year the city's unemployment rate went way up.

The cities newspaper writers, opinion leaders and politicians couldn't for the life of them figure out why unemployment was rising in their city.

Of course if they ever admitted that we can produce just as much with far less people.. the citizenry would demand a more equitable way of sharing the production.. and those with jobs would demand a more equitable share of the leisure time.

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I was reading about one city where a great steel plant was retrofitted, and instead of requiring 3,000 workers at the site, they needed something like 1,200. In the following year the city's unemployment rate went way up.

The cities newspaper writers, opinion leaders and politicians couldn't for the life of them figure out why unemployment was rising in their city.

Of course if they ever admitted that we can produce just as much with far less people.. the citizenry would demand a more equitable way of sharing the production.. and those with jobs would demand a more equitable share of the leisure time.

The top earners in our society are doing better than ever. I suspect that if we're ever to get full employment again, we'll have to go back to the days of "Upstairs, downstairs" ie a lot more domestic staff. We've already seen a rise in domestic cleaners, nannys etc. Perhaps the government could make it tax advantageous to hire staff eg if you hire a gardener for more than a couple of hours per week at your domestic abode, you get tax relief.

I'm wondering also if rickshaws (already in central London) may become regular sights in our towns and cities.

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The top earners in our society are doing better than ever. I suspect that if we're ever to get full employment again, we'll have to go back to the days of "Upstairs, downstairs" ie a lot more domestic staff. We've already seen a rise in domestic cleaners, nannys etc. Perhaps the government could make it tax advantageous to hire staff eg if you hire a gardener for more than a couple of hours per week at your domestic abode, you get tax relief.

I'm wondering also if rickshaws (already in central London) may become regular sights in our towns and cities.

You've got a good point, I was talking to some business friends about how the economy has changed from one mainly intent on providing goods and services to the mass market of middle class people.. to one which mainly caters to the wealthy.

For example car detailing is a pretty good business right now. Rich people will spend £200 pounds to get their car looking great. For a specialist physician, lawyer, successful businessman, banker thats not a lot of money.

Perhaps the best businesses of the last decade were ones like plumbing, electrical, roofing and so on that catered to rich people. Those rich people are willing to spend huge money getting what they want for their home. And those are real good jobs. I've noted how these trades in construction are perhaps the last bastion of good paying jobs for average people.

We don't yet have machinery that can put a new roof on a house. About the best thing we have is new roofing materials that last much, much longer than before.

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why are they surprised?

Because nobody saw it coming and it was unexpected. I read it every day in the news.

It must therefore be true.

In a stagnant market, investment means keeping up with the joneses and buying market share for growth, which means a better product, or a cheaper one, and a cheaper one means less costs on the factory floor and a better one means losers in the competitors factory floor.

or if globalists have their way, they export both better and cheaper to China, and wonder why we cant compete.

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They are not surprised they just do not want to admit the truth , it is better for them to blame the unemployed and talk sh-t rather than admit the working week has not been cut for 30 years, many people do unpaid overtime and jobs have been destroyed in this country by outsourcing , computers and technology.

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Given that most people want to get richer instead of have more leisure time, you have your answer.

It would be perfectly possible to live like the average person did 50 years ago on minimum wage. It isn't much fun though.

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I was reading about one city where a great steel plant was retrofitted, and instead of requiring 3,000 workers at the site, they needed something like 1,200. In the following year the city's unemployment rate went way up.

The cities newspaper writers, opinion leaders and politicians couldn't for the life of them figure out why unemployment was rising in their city.

Of course if they ever admitted that we can produce just as much with far less people.. the citizenry would demand a more equitable way of sharing the production.. and those with jobs would demand a more equitable share of the leisure time.

they arent suprised

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You've got a good point, I was talking to some business friends about how the economy has changed from one mainly intent on providing goods and services to the mass market of middle class people.. to one which mainly caters to the wealthy.

For example car detailing is a pretty good business right now. Rich people will spend £200 pounds to get their car looking great. For a specialist physician, lawyer, successful businessman, banker thats not a lot of money.

Perhaps the best businesses of the last decade were ones like plumbing, electrical, roofing and so on that catered to rich people. Those rich people are willing to spend huge money getting what they want for their home. And those are real good jobs. I've noted how these trades in construction are perhaps the last bastion of good paying jobs for average people.

We don't yet have machinery that can put a new roof on a house. About the best thing we have is new roofing materials that last much, much longer than before.

I've had ceonversations recently very much along the same lines, with poeple scrabbling for work, a market, my standard response is top end, max price, that is where the money is, that is where it has been concetrated. I think this is partly reflected in the housing averages too - high cash purchases and higher end housing selling and being developed (not just a london thing).

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As a plumber ive tried to make this point many times.

The last decade was more than good, with a bag of spanners and some knowledge= good pay and good hours.

Not quite as busy these days tho and i dont see it getting any better.

but as you say its a trade, as in basic trading of services.

If there are any 20 year olds reading this looking for a stable future, have a look at the trades. you could do worse.

Yes - you make a key point. The thing young people need to realise is that skilled manual jobs like yours cannot be outsourced. You can't fix a broken toilet over the phone from India.

Similarly as the first post mentioned, mechanisation is eating into semi-skilled jobs. Robotics is getting much better and much cheaper. Jobs you consider semi skilled and cannot think of a robot doing will be replaced by machines in the next 15 years. That, along with the fact that I really enjoy it, is the reason I work in IT. As I said before this is not a dead-cert as programmers can be outsourced. So you have to entrench yourself in the business knowledge also.

Young people should become mechanics and plumbers! Or anything else that is skilled labour.

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I've had ceonversations recently very much along the same lines, with poeple scrabbling for work, a market, my standard response is top end, max price, that is where the money is, that is where it has been concetrated. I think this is partly reflected in the housing averages too - high cash purchases and higher end housing selling and being developed (not just a london thing).

I agree I talked to someone who is a part owner in a small plumbing company. He says they don't even bother serving middle class or lower people. All they do is high end homes.

Theres just no money in the bottom 90-95% of the population. Otoh there is huge money at the top. Like he was saying for one of his clients honestly the £500,000 renovation they are doing is not a lot of money for them.

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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