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Converted Lurker

Hbos Report..am I Missing Something?

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"House prices increased by 1.2% in September and by 1.8% in the third quarter. The annual rate of house price inflation, at 3.0%, is significantly lower than the 20.5% recorded in 2004 Quarter 3."

HPI is over, the next six months reports are traditionally the worst for Estate Agents which is why the Hometrack report was very bearish. We are living throught the correction, you do not need a report to tell you the evidence you see on a daily basis.

There was never going to be a "house price crash", a "house price correction", carefully massaged by those that desperately need to control the slide of 20-30% over a sustained period of perhaps 2-3 years, does not make for good copy unfortunately.

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There was never going to be a "house price crash", a "house price correction", carefully massaged by those that desperately need to control the slide of 20-30% over a sustained period of perhaps 2-3 years, does not make for good copy unfortunately.

I agree with this analysis.

What we will see is nominal drops in house prices of around 5% per annum over the next four years. Couple this with inflation of around 2.5% p.a. and the compounded affect will be a drop in real prices of 25-30% over the period. Nominal drops of this order are 'manageable' by the VI spin merchants. They will massage the figures to make things look better than they really are and the trend can be portrayed as their predicted 'soft landing'.

In reality it is a crash, but it will take the form of a 'creeping crash' softened by inflation that will be below radar for most people who have very short memories.

Edited by Red Baron

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I believe we'll see something similar to a house price crash in some areas.

In my locality, in West Wales, the market has turned over the last week or two and the estate agents have started slashing prices for the first time. Priced reduced, new price, etc., are splashed all over the property supplement of one of the local papers for the first time - and some of the reductions are pretty large.

Edited by gruffydd

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I believe we'll see something similar to a house price crash in some areas.

In my locality, in West Wales, the market has turned over the last week or two and the estate agents have started slashing prices for the first time. Priced reduced, new price, etc., are splashed all over the property supplement of one of the local papers for the first time - and some of the reductions are pretty large.

So, will folks thinking of buying rush out in response or think, "Hmm, prices falling, perhaps if I wait a bit prices may fall a bit more".

Look how prices on other things are falling, you buy a TV, few weeks later it's cheaper.

Now if folks start applying that experience to houses?

Take me, I'm thinking of changing one of our cars. I'm going to wait till nearer Christmas when I reckon good deals will be about.

There's now no need to rush to buy anything.

Oh dear, isn't that a sign of deflation.

Or is it just the way I think.

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HPI is over,

We are living throught the correction, you do not need a report to tell you the evidence you see on a daily basis.

Is this the same evidence you use to inform us that investting abroad wont produce decent returns?? :lol:

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Is this the same evidence you use to inform us that investting abroad wont produce decent returns?? :lol:

Oh dear, you're stalking me now :o To be specific if I were you I'd be kicking myself for having delusions of Exuma and Berlin whilst you could have made 50K in a heartbeat investing 100k in NI over the past twelve months. TBH Dogbox I have you down as a bit of a revisionary fantasist not a serious 'player'..

In relation to my own thoughts on UK HPI I believe it is over and prices will eventually prove to have peaked after the November 2006 rate rise. However, that could take several years, three at best, to manifest in the data.

I've nothing against 'money making money', or Surgeons earning the 250K you refer to, however I reckon I'm wise enough and old enough to spot bull5hit masquerading as the type of investment strategy you see puked up by the Sunday Times and Mail each week.. ;) Crack on, have the last word....

Sorry meant to add it really is poor form to selectively cut and paste comments to fit your argument, which appears to be a sad habit of yours. If you read my full comment I reckon it still stands up, no crash just a correction - 20-30% over 2-3 years.

Edited by Converted Lurker

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So, will folks thinking of buying rush out in response or think, "Hmm, prices falling, perhaps if I wait a bit prices may fall a bit more".

Look how prices on other things are falling, you buy a TV, few weeks later it's cheaper.

Now if folks start applying that experience to houses?

Take me, I'm thinking of changing one of our cars. I'm going to wait till nearer Christmas when I reckon good deals will be about.

There's now no need to rush to buy anything.

Oh dear, isn't that a sign of deflation.

Or is it just the way I think.

Good point. I keep thinking to myself when I look around the economy and see prices of so many things falling and especially cars and rents that there must be deflation just arond the corner in asset prices too.

My constant nagging feeling for the last few years has been that we will see a burst of inflation first, then an over reaction from the central banks/regulators (perhaps due to mass defaults or currency collapse) which then precipitates a credit contraction and then we will see savage deflation. I think we have seen the inflation part, we are vey near to the over reaction part but not quite there yet and am looking forward to deflation.

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Oh dear, you're stalking me now :o To be specific if I were you I'd be kicking myself for having delusions of Exuma and Berlin whilst you could have made 50K in a heartbeat investing 100k in NI over the past twelve months. TBH Dogbox I have you down as a bit of a revisionary fantasist not a serious 'player'..

In relation to my own thoughts on UK HPI I believe it is over and prices will eventually prove to have peaked after the November 2006 rate rise. However, that could take several years, three at best, to manifest in the data.

I've nothing against 'money making money', or Surgeons earning the 250K you refer to, however I reckon I'm wise enough and old enough to spot bull5hit masquerading as the type of investment strategy you see puked up by the Sunday Times and Mail each week.. ;) Crack on, have the last word....

Sorry meant to add it really is poor form to selectively cut and paste comments to fit your argument, which appears to be a sad habit of yours. If you read my full comment I reckon it still stands up, no crash just a correction - 20-30% over 2-3 years.

Pot / kettle huh??

Im stalking you?/

Have you not remembered the threads aimed at me by your good self, I have. I dont recall ever starting a thread which mentioned your name in the title. I dont mind btw, but I do like to give a bit of balance to your one sided pessimistic view of the world.

You assume I have no property investments in the UK, which is quite an assumption to make ;)

'Serious player' - your right Im not a serious player, but I enjoy a lot of free time, have a hassle free life and pretty comfortable, that'll do me. I also recognise earning income (ie working) is only a temporary state rather than a life long persuit.

Ive got to admit I am fascinated by life long pessimists.

I predicted back in early 2006 that prices would rise - 8 - 10% for 2006. Im not gloating but Im bound to point out Ive been more right than your good self with your 'HPI is finished' quotes of yesteryear.

I also am interested why so many of your threads concern people buying abroad. I love your smug wink wink 'I know better than all these muppets' attitude. As with your past predictions you will 100% realise how wrong you were, and sooner than you think.

You scoff at Germany producing 0.2% HPI for 2006 but utterly fail to recognise the billions pouring in from UK and US property funds - are they all muppets, where as you have all the answers?

Also the smart money is into East Germany whereas your figure concerned the whole nation.

BEARS TELL US ALL WE SHOULD BUY IN A TROUGH, BUT WHEN ONE COMES ALONG THEY STILL DONT GRASP THE NETTLE.

I honestly fail to see why you think other nations are'nt due a little HPI - a real little Englander attitude that.

As I said before you need to get out more, and put the Daily Mail down. Eastern Europeans (Estonians & Poles who you mocked) are not as backward as you think. They might just be able to develop modern nations with house pruices to match. OR IS THAT THE EXCLUSIVE PRESERVE OF LITTLE ENGLANDERS ONLY?

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Still not got any comments to make on the Irish crash then, dogbox? I am genuinely interested in your opinion on it.

The Irish Property Crash

Ive nothing much to add. Its a Tulip market thats for sure, prices increasing this fast has to be a warning.

Seems that market has suffered over - exuberance.

I do admire the Irish positive attitude to life though. Where ever I've looked into property I find the Irish present.

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Ive nothing much to add. Its a Tulip market thats for sure, prices increasing this fast has to be a warning.

Seems that market has suffered over - exuberance.

I do admire the Irish positive attitude to life though. Where ever I've looked into property I find the Irish present.

That tulip has well and truly wilted now! And the Irish people are rapidly turning into great big bears.

:lol:

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Ive nothing much to add. Its a Tulip market thats for sure, prices increasing this fast has to be a warning.

Seems that market has suffered over - exuberance.

I do admire the Irish positive attitude to life though. Where ever I've looked into property I find the Irish present.

Hi Dogbox, your predictions have been pretty spot-on last year but I think you may got have 2007 wrong:

your 2007 hpi & economic predictions

"2007 - a re - run of 2005, that is a lumpy market with no or at best 5% gains.

Without a catastrophic rate rise you are'nt going to get your crash.

Forget all the old fashioned stuff such as 'if the US sneezes we catch a cold', thats ****** in a world where huge new players are entering centre stage to take up any slack.

I cant see the memebers of BOE commitee rasing rates much more.

Also forget your 'credit crunch' as Ive been saying since 2004, it isnt comming."

taken from your opening post, I think you may regret posting that very soon. ;)

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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They might just be able to develop modern nations with house pruices to match.

I'm yet to be convinced that UK house prices match our modern nation, and I'm not sure that everywhere else will blunder down this path.

P.

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That tulip has well and truly wilted now! And the Irish people are rapidly turning into great big bears.

:lol:

In the game of "property snakes and ladders", the Irish have only seen the ladders. They believe St Patrick chased all the snakes out of the country, but they are in for a shock. :o

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In the game of "property snakes and ladders", the Irish have only seen the ladders. They believe St Patrick chased all the snakes out of the country, but they are in for a shock. :o

A classic quote!

*applause*

Edited by tara747

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I just bought some HBOS shares when they were down, and they've already gone up over the last 2 days. Someone must have made millions out of shorting them or whatever it's called.

Well down to 1050 1052 and I went in at around 1080 so, more fool me.

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I am not an expert, I wish I was.

It seems to me IMHO that the housing bubble in this country has been pumped slowly (over the last 5-6 years), I wouldnt dare make a prediction as to when and how a correction will occur, but I think we can all agree a correction will occur. It is inevitable as the affordability of homes is like musical chairs when the music stops less and less people have somewhere to sit and a panic will start.

If sellers stop getting buyers coming around they will lower the price and we will find ourselves in a housing price war and prices will plumet. Lets be objective in this though it took 5-6 years to get us where we are now, it may take the same amount of time for the price war to see itself out.

This country is great at panics remember the fuel crisis in 2000, right out of the blue, it only needs a drop in confidence and we could see a meltdown, it is possible but who really knows.

I think as prices slowly fall and they might do to start , then some buyers will hold out in order to get a better deal later. If that happens then apart from the bulls nearly all of you are right as it may prices may start slowly and then crash and then recover a little and drop a bit more, but it may occur over years not days or weeks.

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Yay, back to profit 1102, someone bought all their shares back.

You bought HBOS shares at 1080 and sold at 1102 , banking shares imo are the most dangerous to trade at the moment , if you have to trade in these uncertain times , at least try utility or fag companies with good dividends , with the divi's these would probably survive the best .

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You bought HBOS shares at 1080 and sold at 1102 , banking shares imo are the most dangerous to trade at the moment , if you have to trade in these uncertain times , at least try utility or fag companies with good dividends , with the divi's these would probably survive the best .

Think about the poor bastards who bought in at 1050

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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