Wikileaks Shows Peak Oil Is A Reality

[Kurt Barlow]

Please feel free to shoot me down but after a recent pun conversation, 4-6 pints of real ale consumed I hasten to add. One of my friends came up with the idea of turning Iceland into a global enregy centre.

With the amount of geothermal activity there would it not be possible to invest billions, nay, trillions of dollars into a massive geothermal energy plant. The resulting energy could them by used to create hydrogen or some other transportable energy source for use globally.

Like I said this was a semi-drunken pub conversation, but barring geo-political issues, could this work?

Just read something that suggests icelands total geothermal resource for electricity has a maximum potential of about 4.5GW. Assuming they need about 1GW for their own uses that leaves 3.5GW which at 24/7 output would generate about 9% of the UK's electricity needs.

Useful export yes. World energy centre - nope.

[fluffy666]

Thinking back a few years I remember the logic for cheaper oil in the past was market penetration (getting the oil addict more hooked was how some expressed it) but I imagine now that China et al are well and truly hooked they can now try to exploit that situation with higher prices.

Even so the oil price has gone down since the recent peak but of course authorities like those in the UK helped them out with more and more road humps etc using more barrels of oil and now I see they're removing the mini roundabouts (recently introduced as all pervasive) with traffic lights. Likely in time they'll reintroduce the mini roundabouts and still keep the traffic lights

There's always scope to spend more and more taxpayers money on such schemes which ultimately links to oil consumption and every little bit helps towards higher oil prices - and their excuse for high inflation.

UK (and European) oil consumption has been on a flat-to-downward track for a while now, mainly due to the improved efficiency of modern car engines. Common Rail Diesels have been a boon for larger cars, and even standard petrol engines are something like 20% better then even a decade ago.

And since 2008 there seems to have been less driving generally, which has taken consumption down further..

[Nationalist]

If you want a big capital project why not dam the Severn estuary, and the Wash? Tides are pretty reliable: you get a couple most days.

After that there's always: drill a deep hole down into the magma and produce geothermal energy. There's a vast amount of energy down there and it's only a few miles away.

[funinhounslow]

UK (and European) oil consumption has been on a flat-to-downward track for a while now, mainly due to the improved efficiency of modern car engines. Common Rail Diesels have been a boon for larger cars, and even standard petrol engines are something like 20% better then even a decade ago.

And since 2008 there seems to have been less driving generally, which has taken consumption down further..

This sounds like the "demand destruction" that Michael Ruppert used to go on about. I think per capita oil consumption has been dropping recently, but this has to be balanced against population growth. Figures out today show a 21% increase in net migration over the past year. And they are just the ones we know about...

Kurt your posts are most interesting. Is it fair to say we're at peak oil now, or at least hitting the "bumpy plateau"? While I can still buy asparagus air freighted in from South America its hard to see what the problem is, but how long do you think we have before things start getting "difficult"?

[newbonic]

Rather than turn the electricity into hydrogen which is costly and inefficient and difficult to transport better to simply link icelands grid to the UK via Scotland. That said HVDC is not cheap either but the relaibility of Geothermal energy would help underpin a european grid predominated by intermittant renewables.

Or you could do what Audi are piloting in Germany right now and convert the H2 into methane from those intermittant renewable sources (aiming at 50-60% efficiencies). The existing storage capacity of the gas network is approx 100x that of the electric grid's, so storage at virtually no extra cost. My guess is that the krauts will have something workable and up n running within 5-10 years along those lines while luddites in the UK still think hydrogen embritltlement makes the storage of H2 impossible etc. etc.

(Not that I object to a new HVDC network either.)

Edit to addc link to AUDI Methanation Project

Edited August 25, 2011 by newbonic

[Kurt Barlow]

This sounds like the "demand destruction" that Michael Ruppert used to go on about. I think per capita oil consumption has been dropping recently, but this has to be balanced against population growth. Figures out today show a 21% increase in net migration over the past year. And they are just the ones we know about...

Kurt your posts are most interesting. Is it fair to say we're at peak oil now, or at least hitting the "bumpy plateau"? While I can still buy asparagus air freighted in from South America its hard to see what the problem is, but how long do you think we have before things start getting "difficult"?

Saudi Arabia is bobbing around its peak output. I cant see any developments from the inside that will significantly push up output. I would guess world production is 10% either side of peak. Perhaps Iraq will provide a temporary respite but other than that I doubt there are any major frontiers which will be game changers. CO2 injection into old fields will slow the decline because it enables producers to get more oil out before abandoning production. Another technology starting to be used is solar heat to make oil more fluid - again increasing recovery rates from fields.

Demand is what will make things difficult for us in the west. China and India industrialising is creating an unprecedented increase in demand for energy. At the same time energy demands in the producer nations are rising rapidly too in tandem with revenues.

This is why I have always held the view that the Uk should be developing along the lines of France - large nuc programme as well as developing renewables (particularly large offshore wind)

[Kurt Barlow]

Or you could do what Audi are piloting in Germany right now and convert the H2 into methane from those intermittant renewable sources (aiming at 50-60% efficiencies). The existing storage capacity of the gas network is approx 100x that of the electric grid's, so storage at virtually no extra cost. My guess is that the krauts will have something workable and up n running within 5-10 years along those lines while luddites in the UK still think hydrogen embritltlement makes the storage of H2 impossible etc. etc.

(Not that I object to a new HVDC network either.)

Edit to addc link to AUDI Methanation Project

[/quot

Iceland is planning to convert its fishing fleet to hydrogen as well as its vehicles. It makes sense to use hydrogen near the point of production. Compression for transport results in losing 40% of the energy - very wasteful. In contrast HVDC only losses are only about 1.5% for every 1000km of line.

If Iceland fully utilises its hydro, geothermal and wind resources it could potentially export 5GW to Europe which is worth about £5000 for every person on the Island.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

What happened to the cold fusion super reactor that everyone on here was going on about ?

Surely that's producing megawatts of power by now.

[Kurt Barlow]

What happened to the cold fusion super reactor that everyone on here was going on about ?

Surely that's producing megawatts of power by now.

You mean the one that smelt of scam from day 1?

[Kurt Barlow]

If you want a big capital project why not dam the Severn estuary, and the Wash? Tides are pretty reliable: you get a couple most days.

After that there's always: drill a deep hole down into the magma and produce geothermal energy. There's a vast amount of energy down there and it's only a few miles away.

The outer barrage proposal would have had a generating capacity of about 15GW and supplied about 10% of the Uk's current electricity usage for 120 or more years. Cost £25-£30bn, a small fraction of the cost of the bailouts, and a major jobs boast for South Wales and the West Country.

More lost opportunity....

Just think instead of a debt mountain we could have left our children,Grand children the barrage.

Edited August 25, 2011 by Kurt Barlow

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

You mean the one that smelt of scam from day 1?

Apparently there have been some ... ahem ... issues. I think we have been re-assured though that it's absolutely nothing to do with the science/technical part.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

The outer barrage proposal would have had a generating capacity of about 15GW and supplied about 10% of the Uk's current electricity usage for 120 or more years. Cost £25-£30bn, a small fraction of the cost of the bailouts, and a major jobs boast for South Wales and the West Country.

More lost opportunity....

Yes I couldn't figure this out either, but as I remember the government stopped it because it wasn't financially viable. Maybe it's been passed over for something like the Millenium Dome instead.

[erranta]

If you want a big capital project why not dam the Severn estuary, and the Wash? Tides are pretty reliable: you get a couple most days.

After that there's always: drill a deep hole down into the magma and produce geothermal energy. There's a vast amount of energy down there and it's only a few miles away.

The Royals set up their hydro-electric DAM project to supply the Palaces - just before the energy price explosion we have experienced!

Such GOOD 'timing' - it was 'spectacular'

Could never work out why they not-so-secretly demanded the Govt divert Grant monies meant for the poor to be paid to them to heat their Palaces etc.

[Horridbloke]

Apparently there have been some ... ahem ... issues. I think we have been re-assured though that it's absolutely nothing to do with the science/technical part.

An acquaintance of mine was involved in selling hardware to Steorn several years back and got very excited about the wave of "Orbo" perpetual motion machines that would soon be generating hydrogen to power our cars. I must ask him how that project's going.

(Yes, I realise perpetual motion machines are a different variety of snake oil to cold fusion.)

[corevalue]

Yes I couldn't figure this out either, but as I remember the government stopped it because it wasn't financially viable. Maybe it's been passed over for something like the Millenium Dome instead.

Perhaps, because the new "underwater turbines" offer a quicker, better return, and don't have the problems of silting and fish obstruction that barrages have?

<<fingers crossed>> just maybe the government are waiting for the results to come in ???

Worlds largets underwater turbine

[corevalue]

The big gotcha with Saudi, apart from the cooked books, is that depletion could hit very suddenly. As I understand it (Kurt will correct me if not) their wells are drilled horizontally, the so-called "xmas-tree" wells. This means they can intercept a large area of oil with a single borehole. Unfortunately, as they flood the field from below, as the water table passes these bores, the water cut can suddenly become very high. Somebody said that the sign to watch for was drilling of lots more vertical wells (to replace the lost horizontals), and de-watering plant. There was a HUGE uptick in drilling rogs active in SA a couple of years ago, so box<1> has been ticked, now we need to see what the water cut is on the horizontals.

[Crashman Begins]

LOL! The two often overlooked words when some tosser is trying to spook you is "may" and "if"...debt collectors, banks and just about anyone that wants something from you always you one or both of the above mentioned words!

WAKE UP PEOPLE...... What do you think they WANT in return for thier OIL

[newbonic]

Iceland is planning to convert its fishing fleet to hydrogen as well as its vehicles. It makes sense to use hydrogen near the point of production. Compression for transport results in losing 40% of the energy - very wasteful. In contrast HVDC only losses are only about 1.5% for every 1000km of line.

If Iceland fully utilises its hydro, geothermal and wind resources it could potentially export 5GW to Europe which is worth about £5000 for every person on the Island.

I presume the compression issue is one reason why Audi are planning to convert the H2 into CH4 and store it in the existing paid for natural gas storage system. I read the paper I linked to and they're aiming at 65% efficiency by scavenging waste heat. I assume they could also produce fertiliser and such like from it to. If the source 'fuel' of wind or wave is free (in a sense) then 35% losses are still a lot better than coal fired power stations.

I'm not opposed to HVDC and nukes and the like btw - we'll probably wind up with a mix of sources if we're lucky, with the best ones being used for different applications, e.g. H2 /CH4 or diesel/petrol in duel fuel cars or trucks with longer ranges, electric cars for short range town use, etc. And more expensive energy overall.

[Crashman Begins]

The Oil Kingdom

Lesley Stahl takes an inside look into the world of Saudi Aramco, the world leader in crude oil production and the country's sole source of wealth and power.

PART 1

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4653109n

PART 2

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4653129n

Edited August 25, 2011 by Crashman Begins

[tinker]

The outer barrage proposal would have had a generating capacity of about 15GW and supplied about 10% of the Uk's current electricity usage for 120 or more years. Cost £25-£30bn, a small fraction of the cost of the bailouts, and a major jobs boast for South Wales and the West Country.

More lost opportunity....

Just think instead of a debt mountain we could have left our children,Grand children the barrage.

Kurt, put like that, why on earth didn't it get the go ahead?

Large scale tidal vs wind seems like a no brainer.

[hayder]

I think talk of "peak oil" is a little misplaced. Peak light sweet crude may be a more appropriate and accurate statement.

As Kurt mentioned regarding middle eastern supply, here in Iraq we're working on several new oil refineries (my second one since 2009... ) where we intend to process heavy sour crudes that are difficult to market and the Iraqis will export refined products to europe on trains.

Naturally the world bank and IMF are funding all our projects (so far I've personally worked on the FEED for an ADDITIONAL 500k barrels / day... with another 600k of refining capacity planned for a current total of 1.6M/day).

The big area of investment now is in refining sour crudes... I bet lots of countries are upgrading their refineries as we speak and investing in the technology licence holders for these techs won't be a bad investment in the medium term

[MrPin]

Kurt, put like that, why on earth didn't it get the go ahead?

Large scale tidal vs wind seems like a no brainer.

I guess I'm just a NIMBY, and I might have to look at the thing!

[Kurt Barlow]

The big gotcha with Saudi, apart from the cooked books, is that depletion could hit very suddenly. As I understand it (Kurt will correct me if not) their wells are drilled horizontally, the so-called "xmas-tree" wells. This means they can intercept a large area of oil with a single borehole. Unfortunately, as they flood the field from below, as the water table passes these bores, the water cut can suddenly become very high. Somebody said that the sign to watch for was drilling of lots more vertical wells (to replace the lost horizontals), and de-watering plant. There was a HUGE uptick in drilling rogs active in SA a couple of years ago, so box<1> has been ticked, now we need to see what the water cut is on the horizontals.

Yes - I saw several sets of well patterns in Shaybah which are drilled in that manner.

On the issue of rigs - yep big increase from 30 active rigs to over 100. Some drilling horizontal wells and others sea water injection

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

I think talk of "peak oil" is a little misplaced. Peak light sweet crude may be a more appropriate and accurate statement.

As Kurt mentioned regarding middle eastern supply, here in Iraq we're working on several new oil refineries (my second one since 2009... ) where we intend to process heavy sour crudes that are difficult to market and the Iraqis will export refined products to europe on trains.

Naturally the world bank and IMF are funding all our projects (so far I've personally worked on the FEED for an ADDITIONAL 500k barrels / day... with another 600k of refining capacity planned for a current total of 1.6M/day).

The big area of investment now is in refining sour crudes... I bet lots of countries are upgrading their refineries as we speak and investing in the technology licence holders for these techs won't be a bad investment in the medium term

This is a doomster site. The idea is we reach peak oil, production falls off dramatically and we all end up beating each other over the head with clubs.

I don't see this happening myself. Of of the areas I work in is EOR and I see many advances here. Then there are the kind of things that you say, coal seam gasification, shale gas, hydrates, unexplored deep water, tar sands, plus a gradual shift to renewables.

I think a "peak" is unlikely, more of a round sort of hill with plenty of time to do something about it. There are others of course that think otherwise.

[MrPin]

This is a doomster site.

I think a "peak" is unlikely, more of a round sort of hill with plenty of time to do something about it. There are others of course that think otherwise.

I think Ken may be getting his cooking tools! Beware! He descends from the sky!