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NEO72

Dates That Could Alter The Course Of Hpc History

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Apologies for the melodramatic title - couldn't think of anything else. I was thinking, since we have a zombie housing market, propped up by tax payer subsidies of one form or another, it was worth making a note of any upcoming changes in policy and any expected impacts.

So the two main ones coming up in the near future I can think of are:

1) Changes to the Local Housing Allowance (October 2011). From the ‘official’ (i.e. probably over-optimistic) estimates it looks like 83% of claimants will lose out, with an average loss of around £40 a month (£74 in London).

I’d be very surprised if this didn’t put downward pressure on rents (to assume otherwise, assumes 100% of renters have no alternative e.g. parents), and so yields, and increases the likelihood of tenants defaulting on rent. My prediction – a gradually increasing stream of BTL’s from early next year.

2) End of FTB stamp duty holiday (March 2012). When the original stamp duty holiday (for all buyers, not just first-time) ended in December 2009, there was quite a hefty increase in volumes in the months preceding the deadline, followed by a huge fall in volume in the months after, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this pattern again.

Don’t think it will be so pronounced this time around as there is probably (rightly) some scepticism that it will actually end, it only (theoretically) affects FTBs, and it has been going for much longer than the original scheme (and how many FTBs with circa 25% deposit are there?) but still would expect to see a relative drop in volumes and an acceleration in price falls after April.

Can anyone think of anything else coming up?

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I'm back on the dole and my spending power is reduced. I pray for deflation this September! September RPI determines my rent, and thus affects my incentive to work in 2012.

I'm no longer paying into the system and my housing benefit is up!

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Can anyone think of anything else coming up?

Olympics?

In order to appear to be a beacon of civilisation before the assembled nations Cameron adopts 3rd world dictatorship methods: unleashes a wave of repression and imprisons thousands of opponents on grounds that this is preventing potential disorder.. He prints money to pay off key public sector workers in order to maintain a semblance of normality. Spending on police and prisons rockets. Deficit rises dramatically. Inflation hits double figures. Anyone not getting a 10% pay rise goes on strike, which is made illegal by government. Use of internet and free assembly get restricted. Coalition collapses. Currency crisis ensues. Major UK banks fail. IMF bailout agreed at cost of massive loss of national autonomy. Total economic collapse follows. We win golds in cycling and rowing.

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Today might be one day - Steve Jobs resigns from Apple, takes market down??? Far-fetched?

Well Apple do have more money than most governments. ;)

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Has to be the date SMI stops. When is this?

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but don't think it does. In Jan 2013, reverts back to longer wait and lower max amount - draconian huh?

More noteworthy is that from Jan 2009, those on income-based jobseekers allowance could only claim SMI for up to two years - so this would have ended for the first claimants last Jan. Not sure what proportion this would effect though. Note that those on pension credit can claim indefinately :angry:

Link

A two year time limit to SMI for new customers getting income-based Jobseeker's Allowance was introduced from 5 January 2009.

This will start affecting some people from 5 January 2011. If you have received SMI for two years from 5 January 2009 or later, you will no longer receive help with your mortgage interest. This will apply if you have been getting SMI continually or through linked benefit claims.

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We win golds in cycling and rowing.

But the medals are only foil covered chocolate as gold is now over £20k/oz :ph34r:

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I'm back on the dole and my spending power is reduced. I pray for deflation this September! September RPI determines my rent, and thus affects my incentive to work in 2012.

I'm no longer paying into the system and my housing benefit is up!

Gas and electric goes up 18% in August. Sorry.

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Can anyone think of anything else coming up?

SMI is only a 'tenporary' scheme, it was extended at the last budget, so in theory that's coming to an end in 2013. In practice it'll probably be extended ad infinitum

EDIT: sorry, should have read full thread first.

Edited by exiges

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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