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nicko75

Newcastle

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Thought I would post an anecdotal which might bring some cheer...

Was at a 1 year olds birthday party in Newcastle yesterday [of all places] and was chatting to a friend of my gf - she was a property lawyer who essentially works in conveyancing. She said that work had dried up as there was virtually zero house sales in the area - she went on to say that there were lots of people ready or willing to sell but no buyers anywhere to be seen.

Guess we still need that trigger that is going to create forced sales - thats where the crash comes and by the sounds of it, hits hard....

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Thought I would post an anecdotal which might bring some cheer...

Was at a 1 year olds birthday party in Newcastle yesterday [of all places] and was chatting to a friend of my gf - she was a property lawyer who essentially works in conveyancing. She said that work had dried up as there was virtually zero house sales in the area - she went on to say that there were lots of people ready or willing to sell but no buyers anywhere to be seen.

Guess we still need that trigger that is going to create forced sales - thats where the crash comes and by the sounds of it, hits hard....

Yeah I agree mate. I'm from Newcastle. The market, to me, seems dead here. I know a couple of people who have recently bought here but only after knocking 10-20% off the asking price of their respective brickboxes. Even then though, I think that the asking prices were inflated with the intention of giving the impression that they were getting a decent discount.

Looking at propertybee though I see a real resistance to lower asking prices here. I agree, I agree, I think forced sales are the only way things are really going to get started here.

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Price dropped today from £190k to £160k

Lots of thses kinds of drops round our way (midlands). Think sellers are beginning to lose faith / get fed up / sell ahead of the curve / or perhaps even ZIRP isnt enough to help the struggling finances of the overborrowed!

Tsk as again call that a property crash? Thats merely 15%, as again HK in FOUR weeks had a crash of 61%. Unless we get to 50-60% you have no real right to call it a crash.

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I live in the North East and am at last seeing signs of distressed selling. It is mostly manifesting itself in therelatively new build trendy "wannabee an executive" areas where unfortunately some have overstretched themselves keeping up with the Jones's. There is an increase in the use of the pre repo agents too, Express estate agency etc.

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I may be comparing apples with pears here, but get the feeling some folk think that because places like Newcatle have had hefty falls, these areas have completed their crash and the rest of the country will play catchup.

Surely the whole country will end the crash at the same tiume, but jest have different trough depths.

A simplistic argument, but lets assume Newcastle is England's Detroit, I bet people were saying "buy detroit now, its had its crash already" a year or more ago ... then it fell much further still. Down to income/price ratios of 2.4! (down from 6)

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A simplistic argument, but lets assume Newcastle is England's Detroit, I bet people were saying "buy detroit now, its had its crash already" a year or more ago ... then it fell much further still. Down to income/price ratios of 2.4! (down from 6)

Except like HPI it'll overshoot.

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Except like HPI it'll overshoot.

Quite, but ratios of 2.4 seem a litle deluded right now in England :unsure:

My local houses would cost 70k by that ratio. they currently cost about 120

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Tsk as again call that a property crash? Thats merely 15%, as again HK in FOUR weeks had a crash of 61%. Unless we get to 50-60% you have no real right to call it a crash.

Nope, I didnt call it anything.

I alluded to something starting, despite low interest rates. A huge majority of people on here cannot see HPC coming unless rates rise. I believe I see the early signs of a change in seller sentiment even though rates are 0.5% for the foreseeable.

I dont know if you have property bee Ken, but that property is one example of an increasingly popular phenomenon of a small drop being followed by a much larger drop only a matter of 3 or 4 weeks later. These two tier calm-then-more-urgent drops are a new phenomenon around these parts, and I've seen a few in the last few days.

Here's a couple I posted up last week

Dropped 3 weeks ago. Another 9% drop today!

3% drop last week. Another 13% drop today!

I am not calling the drops as fait accompli. I thought it may be a sign of changing seller sentiment.

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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It's really prices in the North that I am watching. My parents live in North Yorkshire, hers in Newcastle - I've been living in London for the last 14 years [she has for 5] and I simply refuse to borrow over half a million pounds to get an "average" family home. Now is the time to step up the earning power down here, bank the savings and be ready to pounce (ideally in York, maybe in Newcastle) in a few years time. I guess some sense of normality in prices down here could change that plan - I cannot see it happening but then again, if the people that work here cannot afford to live here and have to move 200 miles away, what is left!?....

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Have you not thought about Durham?

It's where I'm living at the minute, I'm originally from Sunderland *Shudder* and Durham is sooooooooooooo much nicer than Newcastle/Sunderland or anywhere else up here really.

York is very nice also.

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Have you not thought about Durham?

It's where I'm living at the minute, I'm originally from Sunderland *Shudder* and Durham is sooooooooooooo much nicer than Newcastle/Sunderland or anywhere else up here really.

York is very nice also.

York is lovely. Had breakfast in Bettys (you have to save up first :) )

So, what are the prices like around York?

Edited by LetsGetReadyToTumble

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York is my hometown - went to school there - support the football team [i kno.... I was there on Saturday..!] - spent my teens in "Silks" [think its called The Gallery now] so I've got the T-Shirt and quite an emotional connection there and, provided I could find the right employment in Finance [big IF, I'm a Financial Controller / aspiring Head of Finance in the Oil&Gas sector] would love to move back there and I know the other half would like to be closer to her family too. Durham is nice too so could be an option as sits nicely between the two - would certainly want to be in a built up area as not sure quite ready for rolling fields just yet...

I think I am in a growing band who feel we were sold a pup by the whole London thing - I have done everything I was told to do. I have worked here since I graduated at 21, did professional exams until I was 26, paid a tonne of tax and more. I am lucky to earn what is apparently a "Top 2%" salary yet this is still not enough - maybe I am partly culpable and should have saved more of a battle-fund over the years for a time like this. But the £100k deposit and mortgage repayments make a house down here unobtainable still at this stage.

As such, feels like the North is the way forward - hopefully a large drop in the cost of living can be coupled with a relatively small drop in income - plus we would be near family and I can go and watch York City lose every weekend....!

Edit: Didnt make sense what I had written before - now corrected...!

Edited by nicko75

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York is lovely. Had breakfast in Bettys (you have to save up first :) )

So, what are the prices like around York?

Funny you should mention that - me & the mrs had lunch in Betty's at Xmas and very nice it was too - when the bill came I was pleasantly surprised at how "low" it was which just shows how detached from pricing reality you become living in the South East - everybody knows Betty's is super expensive.

Prices in York do seem to have calmed down a bit - I remember seeing 2 bed flats (not on the river, not near the station) for over £400k about 4 or 5 years ago and being very depressed that the world had gone so mad. A recent search showed a number of 4/5 bed houses with gardens being available for that sort of money so some sense seems to be prevailing. Need to earn near London money tho and I am still not sure how feasible that is / will be.... I am certainly stepping up my research...

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I've lived in York for the last ten years, and have not seen evidence of significant falls in the last year. The peak seemed to be in late '08 and there were some notable falls (especially in smaller properties closer to the city centre without off-street parking) between then and mid-'10, but there hasn't been much movement that I've seen since then.

It's a different story in Leeds (where I work), though - two-bed semis in Roundhay/Meanwood/Adel that would have gone for £160-170k this time last year are appearing regularly on Rightmove for £120-140k now.

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We're looking to relocate to Newcastle (specifically Tynemouth/North Shields) later this year or early next, depending if we can sell our place in Hitchin, Hertfordshire. I'm doing more and more work from home, so proximity to London is becoming less of a millstone. Plus the wife has family up there.

Should be able to upscale in property size and quality fairly significantly - and looking forward to making plenty of cheeky offers on properties that catch our eye.

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I've lived in York for the last ten years, and have not seen evidence of significant falls in the last year. The peak seemed to be in late '08 and there were some notable falls (especially in smaller properties closer to the city centre without off-street parking) between then and mid-'10, but there hasn't been much movement that I've seen since then.

It's a different story in Leeds (where I work), though - two-bed semis in Roundhay/Meanwood/Adel that would have gone for £160-170k this time last year are appearing regularly on Rightmove for £120-140k now.

All areas will follow suit as buying power is being erroded by pay constaints and higher essential commodities etc.

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Hope this isn't too off topic, but in the spirit of the whole "moving away from london to somewhere cheaper" thing, I found it fascinating to see a map of the UK population in 1891. Basically Lancs, Yorkshire, Derbishire was where the people and jobs were, then there was a massive change over the next 100 years southwards.

So when that think tank was telling northerners to move south, I was thinking "nah other way round mate!" in terms of escaping high living costs in a teleworking economic context. like people in this thread are saying ^

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All areas will follow suit as buying power is being erroded by pay constaints and higher essential commodities etc.

Only if housing benefit is capped and the various bailout schemes that at the moment are preventing forced selling are stopped. At things stand, these two factors have combined to prevent the market correction that would otherwise have happened.

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I've lived in York for the last ten years, and have not seen evidence of significant falls in the last year. The peak seemed to be in late '08 and there were some notable falls (especially in smaller properties closer to the city centre without off-street parking) between then and mid-'10, but there hasn't been much movement that I've seen since then.

It's a different story in Leeds (where I work), though - two-bed semis in Roundhay/Meanwood/Adel that would have gone for £160-170k this time last year are appearing regularly on Rightmove for £120-140k now.

Yup York and Harrogate are immune to crash. Part of the golden yorkshire triangle (forget the third point).

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'Immune' as an absolute is possibly putting it a bit strongly, but I do agree that they're not as susceptible to short-term factors as most of the rest of North and West Yorkshire are. However, you have to look at what is boosting their immune systems, to extend that analogy: the main factor, I would speculate, is that both cities are the dormitory towns of choice for middle management and senior public sector workers in the Leeds/Bradford/Sheffield conurbations (of which I have to confess I am one). Indeed, York's major private sector industry is tourism (now that most of Nestle has gone to the Czech Republic), apart from which the only employers paying significant numbers of people over the national average are the council and the university. In that respect, York's local economy is no different from that of Middlesbrough: the only difference is that one has tourist attractions (and better public transport to London), and the other tourist repulsions.

All these major northern cities that are effectively public sector dependent have these pleasant dormitory towns for their senior workers to live in, the property values of which depend on these state employees: Newcastle/Morpeth, Middlesbrough/Stokesley, Leeds/York etc. etc. As soon as significant numbers of these people either experience real-terms pay cuts or reductions in number,, then if that is accompanied by the removal of measures that prevent forced selling (e.g. the government pays your mortgage interest if you lose your job), then house prices there will start to correct.

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Quite. I''m in East Yirks and Im awaiting the coming pubic sector redundancies and next spring to maybe buy. If I can find anything I like that is. It might be the year after - I'm in no hurry. At present, for me, all it takes is for prices to drop 2% a year for it to be cheaper to rent.

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The strange difference between Leeds and York is that Leeds has far wealthier districts and poorer ones too compared to York.

Have you been to Nun Monkton (which admittedly is just outside the outer ring road, but is in effect a suburb of York) or Tang Hall?

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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