bmf Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looking for ideas from HPC on which countries have the best medium-term prospects. I have 2 kids and a wife. Looking to move in 2 or so years time. Looking at the list of countries with property bubbles it's pretty bad. However many that had bubbles have also had corrections, like the USA. This link from the economist with an interactive chart is also useful. The UK is very bad compared to most. What I will say is I'm glad I don't live in the Netherlands. The data on Germany doesn't stretch back so far, unfortunately. Although it has gone up a bit Canada still looks good, though they do still have boomers. Work wise I'm very employable. Work as a programmer so I reckon I could get work anywhere. Where has the best prices that is not utterly screwed by demographics? If you can back it up with a link to the stats that would be most welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackgoose Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I lived in the Netherlands for a few years. I didnt buy due to the 6% stamp duty and other fees, bringing the costs associated with buying a house to 10%. The dutch are generally frugal people. However even in areas away from Amsterdam/ The Hague the average place might be about 500,000. In these areas, the people mostly dress in cheap clothes and rarely drive expensive cars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPin Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ireland is becoming very good value, by the hour it seems! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Although it has gone up a bit Canada still looks good, though they do still have boomers. Depends; our house seemed cheap when we bought it in 2007, but it seems expensive now that the pound has collapsed. However, you can still buy a house in a rural area for very little money if you want to and there are 60 houses for sale in our town for under $200,000. My guess is that we're going to see a crash if demand for oil and other resources slows down, but at the moment they're still knocking together new houses at insane rates and selling them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 (edited) Ireland is becoming very good value, by the hour it seems! Not if your buying with our crappy currency. That is the clincher! UK asset prices are expensive (to us that live here) because people from outside the UK can get them cheap with other currencies. If you have sterling you are a bit screwed and can really only buy sterling based assetts (unless you think the extreme overvaluations of certain currencies compared to sterling is going to continue and get worse). Edited August 21, 2011 by nohpc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmf Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not if your buying with our crappy currency. That is the clincher! UK asset prices are expensive (to us that live here) because people from outside the UK can get them cheap with other currencies. If you have sterling you are a bit screwed and can really only buy sterling based assetts (unless you think the extreme overvaluations of certain currencies compared to sterling is going to continue and get worse). Yes - this is a problem. I have a hefty deposit and I figure that even though I'm paying in a deprecated currency overall it's a win because prices are so detached from wages in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ireland is becoming very good value, by the hour it seems! only if you have Euro in your savings account tim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thejaksie Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What I will say is I'm glad I don't live in the Netherlands. This graph is misleading because all mortgage interest in the Netherlands is 100% tax deductible. Therefore on a tax adjusted basis the costs are much lower. Also a huge difference is that for instance in NL borrowers have mortgages with fixed rates for 25 years and therefore at least borrowers aren't exposed to interest rate hikes. However, the NL has enjoyed a great boom as well (although not as bad as UK because e.g borrowing standards were introduced, .i.e. max income multiple, and a generally frugal nature), and is now in a very similar situation, ie 10-15% down since 2007 in a totally stagnant market I reckon by most standards UK's Ponzi scheme is more extreme than anywhere else in the world (bar some hyped cities in Asia) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmf Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 This graph is misleading because all mortgage interest in the Netherlands is 100% tax deductible. Therefore on a tax adjusted basis the costs are much lower. Also a huge difference is that for instance in NL borrowers have mortgages with fixed rates for 25 years and therefore at least borrowers aren't exposed to interest rate hikes. However, the NL has enjoyed a great boom as well (although not as bad as UK because e.g borrowing standards were introduced, .i.e. max income multiple, and a generally frugal nature), and is now in a very similar situation, ie 10-15% down since 2007 in a totally stagnant market I reckon by most standards UK's Ponzi scheme is more extreme than anywhere else in the world (bar some hyped cities in Asia) Interesting - this is the kind of inside info I knew HPC would deliver! Agreed the UK is mental - that's why I'm asking this question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjk Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Depends; our house seemed cheap when we bought it in 2007, but it seems expensive now that the pound has collapsed. However, you can still buy a house in a rural area for very little money if you want to and there are 60 houses for sale in our town for under $200,000. My guess is that we're going to see a crash if demand for oil and other resources slows down, but at the moment they're still knocking together new houses at insane rates and selling them. Canada is way overpriced. Vancouver is beyond insane and prices in Toronto have doubled to tripled in 10 years. Renting is generally a much better value for the money. For example, I rent a $700,000 house for $2100 per month. I'm not sure where The Economist gets their Canada data from but it appears to be flawed. I'm seriously thinking about moving to the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Canada is way overpriced. Vancouver is beyond insane and prices in Toronto have doubled to tripled in 10 years. Toronto and Vancouver may be, but much of the country is just expensive rather than insane, and other parts are cheap (but that's largely because there's not much work there). I agree though, post-crash America is probably a much better choice for cheap housing in places where people do want to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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