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RufflesTheGuineaPig

Market Fall - Some Context

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I just though I would add some graphs to put the current market activity into context. Note, if you will, the vertical lines at the end of the graphs. That isn't a printing error.

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I just though I would add some graphs to put the current market activity into context. Note, if you will, the vertical lines at the end of the graphs. That isn't a printing error.

CAC40 seems the lowest historically speaking... could be passing through10-12 year lows next week.

Is there a reason why it was the only index where the 2007 peaks didn't pass the dot.com peaks ?

Is there a fundamental weakness there of some kind (relative to the othere three) ?

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Staggering.

iirc the lowest the RSI ever got during the 2008 turmoil on the ftse was 9. In this fall it reached an unprecedented 5.

Usually anything around 15-20 is a strong buy / oversold signal :blink:

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Staggering.

iirc the lowest the RSI ever got during the 2008 turmoil on the ftse was 9. In this fall it reached an unprecedented 5.

Usually anything around 15-20 is a strong buy / oversold signal :blink:

I think RSI follows the 70/30 rule (at 70 sell, and at 30 buy), so if it is really 5 then that is staggering.

What time frame have you used for that calc ?

Has it really droppe for 95 of the last 100 days (or something comparable) ?

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I think RSI follows the 70/30 rule (at 70 sell, and at 30 buy), so if it is really 5 then that is staggering.

What time frame have you used for that calc ?

Has it really droppe for 95 of the last 100 days (or something comparable) ?

I can't access the chart now, but its the one day candle chart for the FTSE, using the standard RSI parameters I assume. 5 was the reading I saw in the early august plunge, not this week.

Whatever parameters you use, the relationship will be similar - ie more shocking than the steepest fall in 08 on the same measurement.

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markets often crash from oversold conditions.

Indeed. But usually only after being in bear markets for many months.

This doesn't fit that pattern at all that I can see. Looks far more like a bull correction.

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This doesn't fit that pattern at all that I can see. Looks far more like a bull correction.

That was my feeling last week, those near vertical falls are usually followed by near immediate bounce backs. But then I got thinking about these patterns we think as natural.

Bounce from oversold? Bernanke gifts the market with 0 rates until 2013: 500 Dow points bounce, nothing natural about it. Since Greenspan a lot of those bounces from oversold have been the result of CB intervention.

If CBs are politically unable to intervene this time then perhaps we can't rely on these 'natural' patterns anymore?

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That was my feeling last week, those near vertical falls are usually followed by near immediate bounce backs. But then I got thinking about these patterns we think as natural.

Bounce from oversold? Bernanke gifts the market with 0 rates until 2013: 500 Dow points bounce, nothing natural about it. Since Greenspan a lot of those bounces from oversold have been the result of CB intervention.

If CBs are politically unable to intervene this time then perhaps we can't rely on these 'natural' patterns anymore?

Jan-March 2008 didnt have CB intervention afaik, and bounced back up near the 200 day MA that it dipped through.

If yesterday and today's falls are sustained, there isn't even a deadcat bounce. like when you stamp on a landing football to catch it under your boot before it bounces

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comes across as amateurs panicking, people who came late to the stockmarket rally (that will be almost everyone) poo'ing their pants and into real losses

will be inetersting to see what the cringeworthy 'tales of a private investor' blog in the telegraph makes of it

the last few years have been a tale of him selling half way to the bottom of the 2008 correction and then forgetting to buy back in until the last 6 months

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Jan-March 2008 didnt have CB intervention afaik, and bounced back up near the 200 day MA that it dipped through.

I can't remember TBH.

If yesterday and today's falls are sustained, there isn't even a deadcat bounce. like when you stamp on a landing football to catch it under your boot before it bounces

That would be ominous. I'd expect some attempt to give markets a small treat over the weekend but if nothing's coming it could get interesting.

Edited by _w_

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That was my feeling last week, those near vertical falls are usually followed by near immediate bounce backs. But then I got thinking about these patterns we think as natural.

Bounce from oversold? Bernanke gifts the market with 0 rates until 2013: 500 Dow points bounce, nothing natural about it. Since Greenspan a lot of those bounces from oversold have been the result of CB intervention.

If CBs are politically unable to intervene this time then perhaps we can't rely on these 'natural' patterns anymore?

They'll change the politicians.

Alternatively you could argue that the market has(is) discounted(ing) that the FED has run out of ammo/can't act politically.

We may trade this range sideways for a month or two, but ultimately either growth will end up 'suprising' on the upside or they'll be forced into some blood-letting (bank take downs) or policy action.

Even Osborne (oops, George)

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They'll change the politicians.

Alternatively you could argue that the market has(is) discounted(ing) that the FED has run out of ammo/can't act politically.

We may trade this range sideways for a month or two, but ultimately either growth will end up 'suprising' on the upside or they'll be forced into some blood-letting (bank take downs) or policy action.

Even Osborne (oops, George)

I see Jackson Hole as a potentially seminal moment with high volatility until then. I'm imagining the pavlovian market professionals are expecting something to compensate for the recent bad economic numbers. On the other hand the Fed seems to be telegraphing bad news: is it a preparation for bad news or an approach to make whatever symbolic positive action at Jackson Hole look really good?

I'm probably thinking about this too much.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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