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What is the general consensus here, are we going to see a retest of the 2009 lows on the FTSE in the coming months~year? Also if we do see the retraction in confidence needed to get the FTSE back down to that level, will this finally translate into proper falls in house prices and another break through the 2009 lows?

I believe we will see both within 18 months but would like to hear how others on here think this could play out.

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In 2008, the central bankers guns still had some ammo. Now they are effectively holding a replica gun.

In 2008, I would have said it could go either way but as each day passes and I see and hear more evidence, I am convinced we are entering a depression that will last for a decade or more.

House prices have held up surprisingly well, underpinned by low IRs. However, not even low IRs will save them when people lose their jobs and cannot service the debt and keep their head above water. So cheaper houses yes, but whether you'll have a job or be able to secure a mortgage... who knows?!

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What is the general consensus here, are we going to see a retest of the 2009 lows on the FTSE in the coming months~year? Also if we do see the retraction in confidence needed to get the FTSE back down to that level, will this finally translate into proper falls in house prices and another break through the 2009 lows?

I believe we will see both within 18 months but would like to hear how others on here think this could play out.

Price inflation, static wages, limited credit/debt, growing panic even from those previously fairly insulated, and meanwhile the bankers are stuffing their pockets with assets that can only have value as long as the rest of us are able to consume. I'm sure it will all be fine... personally, if I was interested in buying shares, I wouldn't touch much apart from food-related stuff, and even that would just be the best of a bad bunch.

The elite are parasites and they don't seem to notice that they're killing the host.

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There is a sense out there that Western governments have tried everything they could think of/politically possible.. and now giving up.

I think the markets also assumed we were back on the growth track, new jobs being created, demand to start rising again.. but then to have these negative reports come out, finally forced them to challenge their assumption. Amongst the elites I see on the media and such they always assume we will go back to growth, because everytime in the postwar there has been a recession we have gone back to growth.

You see a lot of big companies gearing up for another round of layoffs. Thats the pessimist side.

The optimist side is that the world economy as a whole is actually growing impressively. And many corporations listed on the LSE and NYSE are really global companies.

Edited by aa3

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I'm going...yes!

Although I think by then the market will be oversold.

3600, anyone?

A stock-broker I know told me in 2008. When the stock market hits 3000 that's when it's reached it's bottom....

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The key indicator imho is the 200 day moving average, and whether it points downwards or not. In 2010 it only flirted with the downturn iirc. and now its pretty much flat too. Difference is, this plunge is deeper, so a rally will need to be very steep to keep the 200MA upright. The S&P 200MA has not turned down like the FTSE has, but I give more credence to the S&P as its the dominant market.

Its irrational to put so much faith in an arbitrary 200 day average as an individual, but the market does pay a lot of attention to it, therefore its key imho.

Looks like a repeat of Jan 08 to me.

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A stock-broker I know told me in 2008. When the stock market hits 3000 that's when it's reached it's bottom....

adusted for inflation that is 3300

that's depression-era expectations, oversold afaik

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Yes, I think we are going back down.

Basically, in the past 3 years virtually no jobs have been created in the West, especially in the US. As we all know, the vast QE sums have gone to the banksters with virtually nothing trickling down to the wider economy - 'trickling',that is a good word isn't it.

What they should have done, and what needs doing now, is a massive infrastructure investment in building new roads, bridges, new power stations, better homes, etc, etc... but where will the money come from and, more importantly, what would it do for inflation and commodity prices?

Big rock, big hard place.

Don't unerestimate that it is now election year in the US - Obama will spend, spend, spend to get an extra 4 years.

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adusted for inflation that is 3300

that's depression-era expectations, oversold afaik

Unless we are indeed heading into a depression. You know in the US they shed around 12 million jobs at the start of this. Then in the whole green shoots, recovery phase they added 580,000 jobs. Now it looks like companies and states are gearing up for another big round of job cuts.

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Unless we are indeed heading into a depression. You know in the US they shed around 12 million jobs at the start of this. Then in the whole green shoots, recovery phase they added 580,000 jobs. Now it looks like companies and states are gearing up for another big round of job cuts.

America's problem is productivity, the jobs they create are high skilled leaving the proles on the dole queue

unpleasant as that sounds, since it is still positive economic growth, it is not depression

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Yes, I think we are going back down.

Basically, in the past 3 years virtually no jobs have been created in the West, especially in the US. As we all know, the vast QE sums have gone to the banksters with virtually nothing trickling down to the wider economy - 'trickling',that is a good word isn't it.

What they should have done, and what needs doing now, is a massive infrastructure investment in building new roads, bridges, new power stations, better homes, etc, etc... but where will the money come from and, more importantly, what would it do for inflation and commodity prices?

Big rock, big hard place.

Don't unerestimate that it is now election year in the US - Obama will spend, spend, spend to get an extra 4 years.

You make the case for money reform very well, MT.

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Son of SMI will ride in and save the poor home owners (and banks), or the government will invent some other scheme to save the feckless.

sadly i tend to agree plus the big anti-HPC weapon already used is banks forbearance. I just can't see the sense in banks repossessing en mass and thereby devaluing the rest of the houses on their books especially with the government influence on banks and the effect a HPC will have on our credit rating. I don't know what can limit the banks forbearance, could they sit on non-paying houses indefinitely? Will we start to see quiet debt reductions dished out here as the lenders in the states are doing? Already so many people have been moved onto interest only, how long can they store up this trouble before it blows?

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What is the general consensus here, are we going to see a retest of the 2009 lows on the FTSE in the coming months~year? Also if we do see the retraction in confidence needed to get the FTSE back down to that level, will this finally translate into proper falls in house prices and another break through the 2009 lows?

I believe we will see both within 18 months but would like to hear how others on here think this could play out.

If the govt/banks leave things alone then I believe its only going lower and lower. However, the famous printy-printy urge will take over and make real assets like stocks look more attractive. Companies own real assets and will still make profits, albeit in devalued currency.

The trick will be to know when the printing restarts, secretly or not. That's one for the insiders.

I plan to start buying in at 4400 and buy more if it drops.

With ZIRP and mortgage support still going, I only expect small (<10%) nominal drops in house prices.

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What is the general consensus here, are we going to see a retest of the 2009 lows on the FTSE in the coming months~year? Also if we do see the retraction in confidence needed to get the FTSE back down to that level, will this finally translate into proper falls in house prices and another break through the 2009 lows?

I believe we will see both within 18 months but would like to hear how others on here think this could play out.

I see it as more like 2007, it is a decisive break and foreboding of things to come, cant see the markets dropping much lower than this (4 to 5%) before a strong 6 month taking the FTSE back towards 6k or so counter rally, it lines up with H2 2012 far more likely to be similar to 2008 except worse obviously bringing up another major buying opp like 09 before end of 2013

Edited by Mary Cassatt

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sadly i tend to agree plus the big anti-HPC weapon already used is banks forbearance. I just can't see the sense in banks repossessing en mass and thereby devaluing the rest of the houses on their books especially with the government influence on banks and the effect a HPC will have on our credit rating. I don't know what can limit the banks forbearance, could they sit on non-paying houses indefinitely? Will we start to see quiet debt reductions dished out here as the lenders in the states are doing? Already so many people have been moved onto interest only, how long can they store up this trouble before it blows?

Normally the banks would have repossessed to get money, to move their business on....now they just get it off the tax payers and wait for someone egyt to bail out the feckless

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sadly i tend to agree plus the big anti-HPC weapon already used is banks forbearance. I just can't see the sense in banks repossessing en mass and thereby devaluing the rest of the houses on their books especially with the government influence on banks and the effect a HPC will have on our credit rating. I don't know what can limit the banks forbearance, could they sit on non-paying houses indefinitely? Will we start to see quiet debt reductions dished out here as the lenders in the states are doing? Already so many people have been moved onto interest only, how long can they store up this trouble before it blows?

I was watching CBS News the night before last talking about how banks in the US are, quietly, writing off mortgage arrears to some people - not all, but to some. It seems pot luck as whether you get it or not.

Basically, they are looking at how much you owe on a house and wiping 10 or 20 percent off your mortgage debt. It is currently low radar in the US and quite convuluted how to get it, but it is going on.

In some cases the banks are writing off the mortgage loss altogether and the US Govt gives the person 3,000 bucks in moving fees to up sticks and move out. They lose their home in this instance - and any payments they have made - but basically they get to walk away debt free.

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I see it as more like 2007, it is a decisive break and foreboding of things to come, cant see the markets dropping much lower than this (4 to 5%) before a strong 6 month taking the FTSE back towards 6k or so counter rally, it lines up with H2 2012 far more likely to be similar to 2008 except worse obviously

Obama can't let it happen - it is now the start of US election year.

A big drop in the markets now kind of plays into his hands, allowing him to ride to the rescue with an actual jobs QE program and probably some kind of mortgage QE.

If anything, he prob would like to see the markets down another 2,000 or 3,000 points so that his hero stuff can look even better.

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sadly i tend to agree plus the big anti-HPC weapon already used is banks forbearance. I just can't see the sense in banks repossessing en mass and thereby devaluing the rest of the houses on their books especially with the government influence on banks and the effect a HPC will have on our credit rating. I don't know what can limit the banks forbearance, could they sit on non-paying houses indefinitely? Will we start to see quiet debt reductions dished out here as the lenders in the states are doing? Already so many people have been moved onto interest only, how long can they store up this trouble before it blows?

I think they can do this as much as they have to, govt will always backstop it

this will lead to a much bigger long term dip in house prices however, short term cure will lead to long term illness

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Obama can't let it happen - it is now the start of US election year.

A big drop in the markets now kind of plays into his hands, allowing him to ride to the rescue with an actual jobs QE program and probably some kind of mortgage QE.

If anything, he prob would like to see the markets down another 2,000 or 3,000 points so that his hero stuff can look even better.

sod all to do with Obama really, he cant control the emotions and social interaction of 6 billion people, hes not the messiah, hes a very naughty boy, if it was possible to control i doubt the Republicans would have let it happen in the 2008 election year

Edited by Mary Cassatt

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In some cases the banks are writing off the mortgage loss altogether and the US Govt gives the person 3,000 bucks in moving fees to up sticks and move out. They lose their home in this instance - and any payments they have made - but basically they get to walk away debt free.

Normally the banks would have repossessed to get money, to move their business on....now they just get it off the tax payers and wait for someone egyt to bail out the feckless

quite, lest we forget who the governments pockets are when they are paying out :angry: It seems the feckless shall inherit the earth

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quite, lest we forget who the governments pockets are when they are paying out :angry: It seems the feckless shall inherit the earth

it's just democracy; when the feckless have a majority, the govt answers to them not you

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sod all to do with Obama, he cant control the emotions and social interaction of 6 billion people, hes not the messiah, hes a very naughty boy, if it was possible to control i doubt the Republicans would have let it happen in the 2008 election year

Actually, election year seasonality is well documented. Presidents do have a lot of power over the markets. This chart shows the DOW for pre election years, typically.

The typical year like this year is one of big growth up to august, then some weakness into october.

But this year, downward pressure is applied to the whole trend, turning the ups into flats, and the dips into plunges.

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_preelection.html

[i'm not allowed to post images]

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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