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The Masked Tulip

What To Do If The Double Dip Is Real?

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It is gradually dawning on the global political elite that the economics they believe in do not work. They do not work, in particular, in the current crisis and continued pursuance of present policy is threatening a double dip recession (Morgan Stanley, the Bank of England's Andy Haldane), a 1930s-style monetary collapse (Fed dissenter Richard Fisher), Eurozone breakup (Nouriel Roubini) and political mayhem (Jeff Sachs).
Jeff Sachs in today's FT flays the global rich for their capture of fiscal policy, condemns the outcome of globalisation and issues a plea for a policy u-turn:

"The path to recovery now lies not in a new housing bubble, but in upgraded skills, increased exports and public investments in infrastructure and low-carbon energy. Instead, the US and Europe have veered between dead-end, consumption-oriented stimulus packages and austerity without a vision for investment. Macroeconomic policy has not only failed to create jobs, but also to respond to basic social values too."

There is, as the elite stare out of windows of business class at the blue skies and do some thinking, something big starting to change. Let's dissect it into bullet points:

Read more...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14579710

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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HERESY!

Everyone knows that new ways of securitising debt will jump start the economy and cause the good times to roll again. The Essex Economic Model (Tattoos, Tandooris & Tanning Parlors) will be the growth engine of 21st century Britain. We'll all get rich selling ringtones to each other....................cast iron guarantee.

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What's this 'double-dip' rubbish anyway?

Only in the detached world of stockmarket indexes and GDP figures were we ever out of recession.

In the real word of human beings and work, the recession and the single ever-steepening dip just continues.

Q3 unemployment figures when all the school/college/university leavers are factored in will IMO make for sobering reading. Either that or the stats will be fudged.

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Q3 unemployment figures when all the school/college/university leavers are factored in will IMO make for sobering reading. Either that or the stats will be fudged.

They'll all be making tractors, it's fine.

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Didn't you read the article?

"low carbon energy"

That will make everything better.

So they'll side-step the tractors and hook up ploughs directly to the graduates? Like it.

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Large numbers of businesses are being kept alive because banks cannot afford to declare them busted, or the liabilities rush onto the books. Ditto for many households - Haldane points out 35% of unsecured debt in the UK is with zombie households.

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Dave and Osborne really aren't up to the task.

They think if we outsource everybody to India the problem will be solved.

It's beyond moronic.

We need urgent action and they're still stuck in a Thatcherite time warp as if the last 30 years never happened.

We need to change course entirely not keep on doing what got us here. Sadly, they don't (and their ideology won't let them) get it.

The tea nutjobs and that bonkers Bachman woman of course are even more insane.

It's going to end in tears if these people remain in charge. :(

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What does a double dip do to the UK national debt.

I cant help but feel that interest rates falling like they have been despite huge fiscal deficits, is like standing on the shore after an earthquake, watching the water flow away. When that water comes back, it will be much higher than anyone can believe, and everything in it's path will be swept away.

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I was getting all moist there thinking the article was going to read a development of how Jeff Sachs ideas may be applied...but no! We digress into a bit of a stab at Minsky and roll seamlessly on to being told the obvious namely that those in the know are well aware that things are about to get a lot worse....after which we close on a complete non sequitur, a pointless bon mot by Alistair Cooke about our lovely royals not being in possession of "the papers". Good old BBC, keep it light, keep it useless and make sure the people never, ever get a lucid summary of what their betters "papers" might hold.

Edited by clockslinger

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What does a double dip do to the UK national debt.

I cant help but feel that interest rates falling like they have been despite huge fiscal deficits, is like standing on the shore after an earthquake, watching the water flow away. When that water comes back, it will be much higher than anyone can believe, and everything in it's path will be swept away.

Yep that is a a real worry of mine ,I feel they have let the genie out the bottle and have not even thought how to get it back in

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What's this 'double-dip' rubbish anyway?

Only in the detached world of stockmarket indexes and GDP figures were we ever out of recession.

In the real word of human beings and work, the recession and the single ever-steepening dip just continues.

Q3 unemployment figures when all the school/college/university leavers are factored in will IMO make for sobering reading. Either that or the stats will be fudged.

Yep we've never left recession.

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Dave and Osborne really aren't up to the task.

It's going to end in tears if these people remain in charge. :(

They aren't in charge.

This must be who is in charge because all the PMs do the same once they get to number 10:

humphrey.jpg

post-15752-0-28466200-1313694126_thumb.jpg

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We need urgent action and they're still stuck in a Thatcherite time warp as if the last 30 years never happened.

Dave see's himself as a 'final solution' to all our economic and social ills- all that's required, see, is a 'strongman' with the guts to ram through the free market agenda come what may...and all will be well. :lol:

James Goldsmith predicted all this in his interview here;

The woman with the loud voice is Laura Tyson who was as wrong as it's possible to be, so, of course, she is today a highly respected academic :lol:

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Dave and Osborne really aren't up to the task.

They think if we outsource everybody to India the problem will be solved.

It's beyond moronic.

We need urgent action and they're still stuck in a Thatcherite time warp as if the last 30 years never happened.

We need to change course entirely not keep on doing what got us here. Sadly, they don't (and their ideology won't let them) get it.

The tea nutjobs and that bonkers Bachman woman of course are even more insane.

It's going to end in tears if these people remain in charge. :(

What do you suggest they do? Print more?

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Dave see's himself as a 'final solution' to all our economic and social ills- all that's required, see, is a 'strongman' with the guts to ram through the free market agenda come what may...and all will be well. :lol:

Cameron is not a free marketeer nor is he much of a "strong man". There are plenty of real flaws with this government, so why make stuff up?

Edited by the shaping machine

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What do you suggest they do? Print more?

I think he wants "urgent action", whatever that might be.

Given the mess most of the western world's economies seem to be in, no matter whether their governments lean right or left, I'm beginning to suspect there is no easy and popular answer.

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Cameron is not a free marketeer nor is he much of a "strong man". There are plenty of real flaws with this government, so why make stuff up?

As has been pointed out- Dave and co essentially cleave to the neo liberal agenda and see themselves as the people with the will to follow through- both in terms of welfare reform and privatization of the health service and indeed the whole public sector.

The fact that the entire edifice of trickle down, globalization and laissez-faire economics has failed seems to have escaped them. So they wander the earth- a cure in search of an appropriate malady. They know they possess the answer- it's just that the question keeps changing :lol:

The truth is that laissez-faire is no longer the solution- it's the problem.

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I think Cameron and Co know whats wrong, but will simply not be allowed to implement it. Its not about being in a Thatcherite era bubble either.

Taxing the rich? Just isn't going to happen. They will increase tax on Minimum wage employee's first, in order to fund tax cuts for the rich.

Why I won't be voting for any of them, as you just get the same play, with a different cast of actors. We need a conversation with the real rulers of Britain.

Edited by John Steed

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What do you suggest they do? Print more?

...US QE3 prediction on this Bloomberg video dated today (mentioned at 4min 34secs)

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, a professor at Princeton University, talks about Standard and Poor's decision to reduce the credit rating on the U.S., and the possibility of another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. He speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/74132060/

...and Bloomberg interview dated today prediction for ECB QE (mentioned at 2min 27secs)

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/vH28UCLFUHAU.mp3

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I don't see where jobs in the West are going to come from - the politicians in the US, UK and across the EU are doing NOTHING - ABSOLUTELY NOHTHING - to generate jobs.

Staggering.

Any job generated would be promptly offshored to to wage differentials. Why bother?

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Any job generated would be promptly offshored to to wage differentials. Why bother?

The only solution for the West is trade barriers - but the banksters and CEOs do not wish that, so the politicians will do as they are told.

Too many politicians are economically stupid IMPO.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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