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Black Monday Musings

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Greetings

Long time lurker, first time poster

I would like to add my two fiats of thought regarding the accuracy of Black Monday predictions. Black Monday threads are a favourite of mine, and a fun part of the HPC community, an orgy of bearish pessimism :D

Now, what irks me is the amateurish nature of some BM threads, when there is a brilliant indicator available right under your noses, even if your economics is up to scratch (even those with no economics backgrounds on this site do themselves a disservice - you're smarter than you think if you're thinking outside the box and posting on this site).

I say under your noses, its above your noses - its the moon!

Now before you start laughing and saying this is hokus pokus nonsense. Take a look at this stock market chart for the last 6 months:

http://amalgamator.co.uk/2011August16th.aspx

In times of uncertainty, when bearish fear and bullish greed are pretty even - uncertainty is king. The markets get volatile, and participants are far more likely to listen to their innate instinct than rational thought, and the moon influences this. The correlation is roughly 0.2, and higher in times such as these. Its not just the moon, its geomagnetism and sunspot activity too - and not just manifested in markets but rioting etc too. People dismiss it, but the stats don't lie.

So a black monday prediction is far more likely to be corrct if you pick a monday right after a new moon, or as near as possible to one.

Personally I think we may already have had our ultimate Black monday prediction at the beginning of August, but there are a few more juicy ones coming up that could claim the bear crown.

There is another bear-fest opportunity on Monday 29th of August, but its a Bank Holiday and right after an important Bernanke speech that could push up stock prices and optimism, dampening any underlying lunar effect. The same speech last year made stocks rise a lot, and even with doubts over the positive effects of QE, it will still be strong imho.

Now the really juicy Black Monday could come in September imho, subject to a few ifs and buts. Assuming Bernanke doesn't really press the big red printing button and go nuts with the printers, and assuming there is no miraculous recovery in Western output in the 3rd quarter (Japan could, but even so the data will be delayed anyway) - then I would like to pencil in a Black Monday for Monday the 26th September 2011 :)

Its not just the moon either, it gets better. Take a look at this chart of the most bullish index for the last few years, the S&P500:

[Mods won't let noobs post images]

http://astrocycle.net/SC/PrintPNG.php?Name=spx_D.png

It may look daunting to some, but its not that complicated. If I may draw your attention to January 2008 and August 2010. These months witnessed similar trends to what has happened in August 2011, but with different outcomes. Both occured when the 200 day moving average was in a nervous sideways trend (when the lunar cycle becomes predictively strong), and the bears raided. (the FTSE was raided more than the S&P in Jan 08). In 08, the index failed to break back through the 200MA, and ultimately plunged after its 2nd rally (surprise surprise, coinciding with the lunar cycle). In 08, with the help of the Fed, it broke back through the 200MA also a few lunar rallies fater the inital bear scare.

The 200MA is key, the Fed is key, and the lunar cycle is key.

The Monday, and week thereafter, of the 26th September 2011 will be Black Monday. I've called it. (and will be opening a big fat short on the FTSE)

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Done to death.

New or full moons occur twice per month.

Roughly every 11 trading days.

So you're never more than 5.5 (avg) trading days from a new or old moon.

I'll leave you to work out the probabilities of turns being within 1 or 2 days of a new or old moon.

Then scale out your chart a little and bingo bongo it's the moon wot done it.

Snake oil.

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Jonh Hampson is one of the guys I do follow, but if you post stuff about full moons, planets or suggest that you can predict where the market is going to peak/bottom weeks, months or years in advance using technical analysis then various small minded losers are going to ridicle you. Such is life - move on.

Yes I'm well aware of the redicule, but my trading account balance has the last laugh :P

This site has many free thinkers, so probably more likely to take 'whacky' ideas seriously - much like Ron Paul fans.

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Call me a small minded loser, I'm mildly prejudiced as far as these go but I try to keep an open mind.

I look at the chart you link to and the full moon and new moon dots seem to be placed to fit with apparent highs and lows. As far as I know the moon cycle is quite regular but on the chart some periods are near twice as long as others. Is the chart made to fit the theory?

16aug1.png

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Yes I'm well aware of the redicule, but my trading account balance has the last laugh :P

This site has many free thinkers, so probably more likely to take 'whacky' ideas seriously - much like Ron Paul fans.

Please can you post that SPX chart on a zoomed in daily basis and confirm the the distribution over the 5.5 trading days.

That will of course prove or disprove new or old moons have any bearing.

A market turn MUST be no longer than 5.5 days from new or old moon.

I'm not ridiculing you - I'm asking you to prove your assertion.

That chart proves nothing whatsoever. I'd hope you'd agree with this. If you don't then of course I shall ridicule you and rightly so.

You're trading a/c balance is irrelevant to the above.

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Done to death.

New or full moons occur twice per month.

Roughly every 11 trading days.

So you're never more than 5.5 (avg) trading days from a new or old moon.

I'll leave you to work out the probabilities of turns being within 1 or 2 days of a new or old moon.

Then scale out your chart a little and bingo bongo it's the moon wot done it.

Snake oil.

By this logic the troughs of the market would be just likely to occur around the new moon as the full moon (and vice versa). The evidence says you're wrong.

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Aug 6th, 13th 21st.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p91580907297

5th was the closest trading day. Low was on the 9th. So 4 calendar days away and 2 or 3 trading days away - i.e. less than random chance on 5.5 day basis.

Looks entirely different to your annual chart which as said above is meaningless.

13th August - Again a Saturday - Nothing happened. The 9th is again further away than random chance.

I know before I even look (and I really can't be bothered to look except to debunk it) that any other turns will similarly be no better than chance.

But I'd still welcome you to prove your assertion.

Edited by Red Knight

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Please can you post that SPX chart on a zoomed in daily basis and confirm the the distribution over the 5.5 trading days.

That will of course prove or disprove new or old moons have any bearing.

A market turn MUST be no longer than 5.5 days from new or old moon.

I'm not ridiculing you - I'm asking you to prove your assertion.

That chart proves nothing whatsoever. I'd hope you'd agree with this. If you don't then of course I shall ridicule you and rightly so.

You're trading a/c balance is irrelevant to the above.

The chart is already daily candles, of trading days.

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By this logic the troughs of the market would be just likely to occur around the new moon as the full moon (and vice versa). The evidence says you're wrong.

No they wouldn't. It depends entirely on the distribution of troughs.

Where is this evidence?

I'm starting from the position that there is no god. You're starting from the position that anyone denying your god is an atheist.

It's up to you to provide the evidence.

That chart with dots on ain't anything. It's just a chart with dots on that when it's set to the granularity you've set it appears to show an ocassional correlation. As said, it would by chance.

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The chart is already daily candles, of trading days.

It's designed to appear something that it isn't.

Can you see which specific DATE on the chart each red or green dot is supposed to be linked to?

Of course you can't.

You need to tie each dot to a specific daily candle.

I've provided one above which disproves August completely.

I'd expect you to prove your other correlations more accurately before I put my money at risk.

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Its a predictor that is often wrong, as shown there, but the historical correlation speaks for itself.

Check all moons on the lunar calander here - http://kalender-365....ar-calendar.php

It all matches the chart. Feb was a shorter month in trading days, so smaller on the axis, but the moon doesn't care, so is squished into it.

Thanks for replying. I can readily imagine it not being wholly reliable as a predictor but my immediate concern (the only thing I can form an opinion on at this stage) is more with the reliability of the source (John Hampson) and data as presented.

If I'm not mistaken the intervals between full and new moons should be of equal length but on the chart they are not. I've measured the intervals to check and it's not an optical illusion. If they are not, one must conclude that the neat correlation of moon phases with highs and lows as displayed on the chart is not to be trusted.

I'd be happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, but unless I'm missing something, this points to data manipulation and misinformation.

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Thanks for replying. I can readily imagine it not being wholly reliable as a predictor but my immediate concern (the only thing I can form an opinion on at this stage) is more with the reliability of the source (John Hampson) and data as presented.

If I'm not mistaken the intervals between full and new moons should be of equal length but on the chart they are not. I've measured the intervals to check and it's not an optical illusion. If they are not, one must conclude that the neat correlation of moon phases with highs and lows as displayed on the chart is not to be trusted.

I'd be happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, but unless I'm missing something, this points to data manipulation and misinformation.

Or could non trying days such as weekends have such an impact on the display?

<Edit to add: just saw your reply that begins with a mention of non trading days...>

Edited by _w_

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Thanks for replying. I can readily imagine it not being wholly reliable as a predictor but my immediate concern (the only thing I can form an opinion on at this stage) is more with the reliability of the source (John Hampson) and data as presented.

If I'm not mistaken the intervals between full and new moons should be of equal length but on the chart they are not. I've measured the intervals to check and it's not an optical illusion. If they are not, one must conclude that the neat correlation of moon phases with highs and lows as displayed on the chart is not to be trusted.

I'd be happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, but unless I'm missing something, this points to data manipulation and misinformation.

As I said, the distances are not equal because non-trading days are not included. Each candle is a trading day, and obviously some trading months are shorter than others. The moon doesn't care what days human's decide to open their markets, and every dot on the chart can be cross checked with the calendar if you wish to check (but might fall on a non trading day, in which case it sits on the line between)

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As I said, the distances are not equal because non-trading days are not included. Each candle is a trading day, and obviously some trading months are shorter than others. The moon doesn't care what days human's decide to open their markets, and every dot on the chart can be cross checked with the calendar if you wish to check (but might fall on a non trading day, in which case it sits on the line between)

Yes I get it, thanks.

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It's designed to appear something that it isn't.

Can you see which specific DATE on the chart each red or green dot is supposed to be linked to?

Of course you can't.

You need to tie each dot to a specific daily candle.

I've provided one above which disproves August completely.

I'd expect you to prove your other correlations more accurately before I put my money at risk.

re dates, consult the lunar calendar I linked if you wish. If you wish to see a zoomed in version, the astrocycle website has these, updated daily.

re tieing moons to specific candles, they aren't, and are often shown on days NOT at peaks and troughs, so if if the graph was a con then surely they would put them at those peaks/troughs :rolleyes:

Its a correlation, not a causality. Not right all the time.

Re august, pointing out a month where the correlation was wrong doesn't disprove the correlation over the long run.

Sounds like denial to me. Don't attack the theory, accuse the graph of being fixed :lol:

you're 5.5 assertion is undermined by bank holidays, and even taking those out of the equation, is suggesting that market turning points are roughly correlated with periods of 11 trading days ... so equally correlated with lunar peaks/troughs - same difference to the trading account B)

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  • 331 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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