Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
TheCountOfNowhere

Japan's Interest Rate Historical Data....

Recommended Posts

Just looked up Japan's interest rate historical data.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate

The interest rates have basically been fec all since 1995.

What's to stop this happening here ?

The mass repo's wont happen.

Prices will drop YOY for the next 15 years/

The banks will survice.

We will all be much poorer.

Is this our future ? Are the rates at 0.5% for 10 years till the banks are fixed at everyones expense ?

I'd much prefer a short sharp shock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looked up Japan's interest rate historical data.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate

The interest rates have basically been fec all since 1995.

What's to stop this happening here ?

The mass repo's wont happen.

Prices will drop YOY for the next 15 years/

The banks will survice.

We will all be much poorer.

Is this our future ? Are the rates at 0.5% for 10 years till the banks are fixed at everyones expense ?

I'd much prefer a short sharp shock.

Japan had a short sharp shock hoouse prices fell about 40% in the first 5 years, just because they continued and are still falling 20 years later doesnt mean its not been volatile, there are years of price rises in that also, cycles work both ways up and down. Fundamentally though the average Jap is much better off because their currency has been strengthening for 20 years.

In short whats happening in the UK at present is nothing like Japans last 20 years, they have actually had internal deflation which is exactly what the peeps on here wanting to buy have wanted, theyd already all be quids in if the UK had done the same as Japan,

Edited by Mary Cassatt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looked up Japan's interest rate historical data.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate

The interest rates have basically been fec all since 1995.

What's to stop this happening here ?

The mass repo's wont happen.

Prices will drop YOY for the next 15 years/

The banks will survice.

We will all be much poorer.

Is this our future ? Are the rates at 0.5% for 10 years till the banks are fixed at everyones expense ?

I'd much prefer a short sharp shock.

Japan had a global export market, when your all fecked together then all holding interest rates low can only lead to inflation accross the board and a devaluation of currencies against the mother of all currencies :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The interest rates have basically been fec all since 1995.

What's to stop this happening here ?

Ever since the crash of 1990, yes... It sort-of worked for Japan because they had a strong export-led economy and there were plenty of higher-yielding places to invest their savings. The "great" bit was that it became possible to invest abroad with leverage as long as the Bank of Japan suppressed the value of the Yen to preserve its export economy.

The problem, as I see it, is that while the Japanese elite could invest abroad with near free money for about 20 years to-date, the advantage of this only makes sense where there are many countries with higher rates. The entire first world can't adopt this strategy - it simply can't work... there are only so-many undeveloped countries where interest rates remain sensible... and if the entire world piles-in to invest there, a rapid bust can be assumed.

I don't think this is a reason that something similar can't happen here - just that if the Fed, ECB and BoE all use an identical tactic, there will be zero benefit to them for the policy. Without a pay-off, I'm not convinced that a near-zero interest rate policy will remain desirable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looked up Japan's interest rate historical data.

http://www.tradingec...n/interest-rate

The interest rates have basically been fec all since 1995.

What's to stop this happening here ?

The mass repo's wont happen.

Prices will drop YOY for the next 15 years/

The banks will survice.

We will all be much poorer.

Is this our future ? Are the rates at 0.5% for 10 years till the banks are fixed at everyones expense ?

I'd much prefer a short sharp shock.

As a nation of savers, aren't the Japanese buying their own govt's debt? That isn't going to happen over here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Japan had a short sharp shock hoouse prices fell about 40% in the first 5 years, just because they continued and are still falling 20 years later doesnt mean its not been volatile, there are years of price rises in that also, cycles work both ways up and down. Fundamentally though the average Jap is much better off because their currency has been strengthening for 20 years.

In short whats happening in the UK at present is nothing like Japans last 20 years, they have actually had internal deflation which is exactly what the peeps on here wanting to buy have wanted, theyd already all be quids in if the UK had done the same as Japan,

Quite right. The UK is nothing like Japan.

The pound is trash. The yen an alternative reserve currency.

We all know about Japanese debt to GDP, but the sterling fall against the yen since 2007 tells me all I need to know about the future for the UK.

Prices of property in Tokyo have, as you say MC, risen at times quite substantially to the extent that some Tokyo property has been a good investment. Overall however there is widespread deflation.

There has been nothing here to remotely compare to the 40% reduction in prices in Japan initially, if only.

There is certainly no overall price deflation in the UK and this government will see to it that there never is any, ever, no matter what.

Accordingly I no longer think looking at Japan is particularly informative. The UK government will support housing and let inflation rip. That is now settled policy, come what may.

Most importantly, despite political stagnation and corruption compared to the UK Japan is the paradigm of a properly functioning society run in the interests of its citizens.

Socially it is as far away from the UK as it is possible to imagine and the response of the people to the tsunami tells you all you need to know about that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are talking like there has been no HPC in the Uk.

The land registry is down something like 17% in nominal terms in 4 years still.

With inflation running at 5% per year, then prices are down 30-40% in real terms.

Our only problem is that what we are looking at doesn't look like a crash because:

a) No one will sell

B) No one can buy

c) We are holding the local currency.

Our 40% has already happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are talking like there has been no HPC in the Uk.

The land registry is down something like 17% in nominal terms in 4 years still.

With inflation running at 5% per year, then prices are down 30-40% in real terms.

Our only problem is that what we are looking at doesn't look like a crash because:

a) No one will sell

B) No one can buy

c) We are holding the local currency.

Our 40% has already happened.

Following your logic, if nominal house prices stayed flat this year but the price of everything else doubled, then we'd all be dancing in the streets because "in real terms" house prices would have halved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are talking like there has been no HPC in the Uk.

The land registry is down something like 17% in nominal terms in 4 years still.

With inflation running at 5% per year, then prices are down 30-40% in real terms.

Our only problem is that what we are looking at doesn't look like a crash because:

a) No one will sell

B) No one can buy

c) We are holding the local currency.

Our 40% has already happened.

Yes but as stated its completely different because asset price falls in Japan were pretty much offset ounce for ounce with strengthening currency (stockmarket and houses down 50%, currency up 100%

In the UK price falls and stockmarket 20% down have up to now been accompanied by currency down 30%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are talking like there has been no HPC in the Uk.

The land registry is down something like 17% in nominal terms in 4 years still.

With inflation running at 5% per year, then prices are down 30-40% in real terms.

Our only problem is that what we are looking at doesn't look like a crash because:

a) No one will sell

B) No one can buy

c) We are holding the local currency.

Our 40% has already happened.

That's because there hasn't been one. Looking at England overall, the DCLG affordability tables here:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/housingmarket/livetables/affordabilitytables/

show the ratio of median house price (from land reg) to median wage (ASHE) is only down around 3% from peak:

2007 7.23

2010 7.01

Those are the 'real terms' numbers that matter. Wake me up when we get back to 2002 levels (30% down from here).

Q

EDIT: Corrections

Edited by Quicken

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Following your logic, if nominal house prices stayed flat this year but the price of everything else doubled, then we'd all be dancing in the streets because "in real terms" house prices would have halved.

if your wages trebbled...then,yes. if you'd moved to Europe 4 years ago and were paid in euros the UK house prices would be looking good now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite right. The UK is nothing like Japan.

The pound is trash. The yen an alternative reserve currency.

We all know about Japanese debt to GDP, but the sterling fall against the yen since 2007 tells me all I need to know about the future for the UK.

Prices of property in Tokyo have, as you say MC, risen at times quite substantially to the extent that some Tokyo property has been a good investment. Overall however there is widespread deflation.

There has been nothing here to remotely compare to the 40% reduction in prices in Japan initially, if only.

There is certainly no overall price deflation in the UK and this government will see to it that there never is any, ever, no matter what.

Accordingly I no longer think looking at Japan is particularly informative. The UK government will support housing and let inflation rip. That is now settled policy, come what may.

Most importantly, despite political stagnation and corruption compared to the UK Japan is the paradigm of a properly functioning society run in the interests of its citizens.

Socially it is as far away from the UK as it is possible to imagine and the response of the people to the tsunami tells you all you need to know about that.

If you were in charge of large company and a 7 million pound bonus rested on you reducing wages by 1% this year what would you do?

OK what I'm trying to say is that this may be out of the hands of government big powerful corporation may use the high unemployment as a way to cut wages. Deflation is a good thing if you are holding on to billions of pounds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Japan had a global export market, when your all fecked together then all holding interest rates low can only lead to inflation accross the board and a devaluation of currencies against the mother of all currencies :)

Yep, that's the problem Japan managed to tread water for nearly 20 years because of it's export based economy. When everyone is screwed together there isn't that option.

The Japanese banks that failed have been kept on life support for 20 years and many with mortgages from that era are still paying and are no where near paying them off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote name='interestrateripoff' timestamp='1313524311'

The Japanese banks that failed have been kept on life support for 20 years and many with mortgages from that era are still paying and are no where near paying them off.

we Will be saying that about the UK banks and housing market in twenty years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Japan has had falling house prices for 20 years how come property there is unbelievably expensive and you need a fortune to rent a studio in Tokyo that makes London slave boxes look like mansions!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

reality is that the UK banks are f***** for a whole number of reasons.at some point,this will show through in reduced credit creation-it already is.we're just lacking a trigger,which will no doubt be a result of sovereign debt/banking crisis.

as others haev said,japan is a completely different case.

Unfortunately, if that is the trigger we have a whole lot more than house prices to worry about.

As far as I can see there will be nothing that will trigger off JUST a HPC now.

We are in for a rocky ride, deciding what to do for the best is one head f***

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Japan has had falling house prices for 20 years how come property there is unbelievably expensive and you need a fortune to rent a studio in Tokyo that makes London slave boxes look like mansions!

Ooh Ooh Me Me I know, sir, I know.

Is it because Tokyo is a city in Japan, and not all of Japan? :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ooh Ooh Me Me I know, sir, I know.

Is it because Tokyo is a city in Japan, and not all of Japan? :rolleyes:

but it is part of japan. Surely it should have been affected, but house prices there make London look cheap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

but it is part of japan. Surely it should have been affected, but house prices there make London look cheap.

Clearly you never saw Tokyo prices at peak, theyve fallen alot, more than 50%, they can an probably will easily fall more than that again, all asset prices can go up 500% and fall 90% quite easily if conditions in the money/credit supply are right, that is all that matters really, all the other social reasons as to why prices will keep going up or keep going down at tops or bottoms is bumph ,its all about the the credit equation

Edited by Mary Cassatt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.