Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Celebrity Knife Catching With Lord Sugar


Recommended Posts

I had an imaginery punt with £500 on RBS shares at 50p about a year ago, these would be 50% down now. Who knows how low these can go. Shares can go to zero.

Never buy stock when it makes a new lower low. Ever.

Does your foot hurt?

You point out that they were 50p last year. If you had bought in the new low of Spring 2009 you would have made well over 300% if you had sold in the Autumn of 2009.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly.

Look for stocks making new 52 week lows (I'd argue multi year lows).

Look for stocks where the RSI is on the floor.

Look for stocks that have a significant increase in volume.

Buy the stock the day after it closes above the previous low.

And understand the story of the stock.

Don't buy on a new lower low:

I should have added, "unless you know what you are doing".

Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest from the Lord himself (via Twitter).

"My bank investments are going South. The name of my firm of the eminent brokers who gave advice to get into banks is WENO F HALL & Co"

What a knob. Maybe he really thought the advisers had a sure-fire way of making money, and wanted to let him make it rather than keep it to themselves?

You'd have thought he might read the papers and learn from the experience various celebrities had with a sure-fire recommendation by Coutts, the Queen's bankers, to take some "low risk" exposure to AIG. Or maybe he should have read Liar's poker to realise the recommendation was probably made by some kid making things up as he went along.

Even advisers who know something that others don't can reasonably issue that sort of a buy recommendation, and I bet their advice did not say "this is the exact bottom, and they will skyrocket from now on". Nowadays you need someone who understands politics lots more than someone who understands economics when valuing a bank, so there is a potential edge an advisor might have. Anyway, either he was following the advice for a decent reason such as this (in which case he is a knob for throwing his toys out of the pram a couple of days later), or he had no idea why he was doing it (in which case he is a knob for self-evident reasons).

Link to post
Share on other sites

What a knob. Maybe he really thought the advisers had a sure-fire way of making money, and wanted to let him make it rather than keep it to themselves?

You'd have thought he might read the papers and learn from the experience various celebrities had with a sure-fire recommendation by Coutts, the Queen's bankers, to take some "low risk" exposure to AIG. Or maybe he should have read Liar's poker to realise the recommendation was probably made by some kid making things up as he went along.

Even advisers who know something that others don't can reasonably issue that sort of a buy recommendation, and I bet their advice did not say "this is the exact bottom, and they will skyrocket from now on". Nowadays you need someone who understands politics lots more than someone who understands economics when valuing a bank, so there is a potential edge an advisor might have. Anyway, either he was following the advice for a decent reason such as this (in which case he is a knob for throwing his toys out of the pram a couple of days later), or he had no idea why he was doing it (in which case he is a knob for self-evident reasons).

Umm... Fairly sure he didn't tweet the above, I'm sure he has nothing but respect for WENO F HALL & CO

Link to post
Share on other sites

Having read this topic, I was intrigued enough to go and learn what other pearls of wisdom the Lord Sugar had placed on his twitter page. I found his page, I think, but all I could see were childish musings about a spelling mistake Piers Morgan won't admit to, or something. Infact, he seemed so preoccupied with this agenda that I can't help wondering if I'm reading a spoof page, as surely nobody could be this sad for real.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know I'll be ridiculed for this and you can all laugh at me when it goes pear shaped but I can take it :lol:

I've bought some Lloyd shares at 30p. I see it as a possible hedge against house prices rising. I see two main outcomes

1) Lloyds go bust and the government takes over then the shares become worthless and I lose the lot

2) Lloyds stay in business and I make a profit

These aren't my figures but are nice and round. Say you later plan to buy an average priced house at £160k, you now buy 5% in Lloyds shares i.e. £8k

If the outcome is 1) surely the downturn in sentiment means that house prices drop by at least 5%? So the loss in the shares is made up for the loss in house price? The £160k drops to £152k?

If it's 2) and house prices gradually rise, per 5% they rise you need the shares to make 100% of the initial price e.g. 30p per 5% so they need to go to 60p if the average house price rises to £168k, 90p if houses rise to £176k. I don't think that is unreasonable given the shares have dropped 95% since 2007. Lloyds via HBoS are more tied to UK house prices than say RBS who have more money sucking black holes

You have to think of a downside and my biggest one would be Lloyds go bust and come under government control. Someone like Gordon Brown is put in charge of the running them and starts lending any amount of money to anyone with a pulse. Then I have lost the share money and house prices rise as well. If that happens I would be fleeing the UK anyway but with the UK then "booming", hopefully sterling will have risen to offset the share loss.

I've messed up haven't I? :(

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

I know I'll be ridiculed for this and you can all laugh at me when it goes pear shaped but I can take it :lol:

I've bought some Lloyd shares at 30p. I see it as a possible hedge against house prices rising. I see two main outcomes

1) Lloyds go bust and the government takes over then the shares become worthless and I lose the lot

2) Lloyds stay in business and I make a profit

These aren't my figures but are nice and round. Say you later plan to buy an average priced house at £160k, you now buy 5% in Lloyds shares i.e. £8k

If the outcome is 1) surely the downturn in sentiment means that house prices drop by at least 5%? So the loss in the shares is made up for the loss in house price? The £160k drops to £152k?

If it's 2) and house prices gradually rise, per 5% they rise you need the shares to make 100% of the initial price e.g. 30p per 5% so they need to go to 60p if the average house price rises to £168k, 90p if houses rise to £176k. I don't think that is unreasonable given the shares have dropped 95% since 2007. Lloyds via HBoS are more tied to UK house prices than say RBS who have more money sucking black holes

You have to think of a downside and my biggest one would be Lloyds go bust and come under government control. Someone like Gordon Brown is put in charge of the running them and starts lending any amount of money to anyone with a pulse. Then I have lost the share money and house prices rise as well. If that happens I would be fleeing the UK anyway but with the UK then "booming", hopefully sterling will have risen to offset the share loss.

I've messed up haven't I? :(

or you could just buy a house. :D

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.