Democorruptcy Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I had an imaginery punt with £500 on RBS shares at 50p about a year ago, these would be 50% down now. Who knows how low these can go. Shares can go to zero. Never buy stock when it makes a new lower low. Ever. Does your foot hurt? You point out that they were 50p last year. If you had bought in the new low of Spring 2009 you would have made well over 300% if you had sold in the Autumn of 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Exactly. Look for stocks making new 52 week lows (I'd argue multi year lows). Look for stocks where the RSI is on the floor. Look for stocks that have a significant increase in volume. Buy the stock the day after it closes above the previous low. And understand the story of the stock. Don't buy on a new lower low: I should have added, "unless you know what you are doing". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 If you've got enough money, you can afford to be wrong quite a few times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScrewsNutsandBolts Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 RBS, BARC, and LLOY are now all down 20% since Monday. Bet he wishes he hadn't tweeted that now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWantItNow Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Latest from the Lord himself (via Twitter). "My bank investments are going South. The name of my firm of the eminent brokers who gave advice to get into banks is WENO F HALL & Co" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MongerOfDoom Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Latest from the Lord himself (via Twitter). "My bank investments are going South. The name of my firm of the eminent brokers who gave advice to get into banks is WENO F HALL & Co" What a knob. Maybe he really thought the advisers had a sure-fire way of making money, and wanted to let him make it rather than keep it to themselves? You'd have thought he might read the papers and learn from the experience various celebrities had with a sure-fire recommendation by Coutts, the Queen's bankers, to take some "low risk" exposure to AIG. Or maybe he should have read Liar's poker to realise the recommendation was probably made by some kid making things up as he went along. Even advisers who know something that others don't can reasonably issue that sort of a buy recommendation, and I bet their advice did not say "this is the exact bottom, and they will skyrocket from now on". Nowadays you need someone who understands politics lots more than someone who understands economics when valuing a bank, so there is a potential edge an advisor might have. Anyway, either he was following the advice for a decent reason such as this (in which case he is a knob for throwing his toys out of the pram a couple of days later), or he had no idea why he was doing it (in which case he is a knob for self-evident reasons). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 How much has the bitter Sugar lost now ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
down the tubes Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What a knob. Maybe he really thought the advisers had a sure-fire way of making money, and wanted to let him make it rather than keep it to themselves? You'd have thought he might read the papers and learn from the experience various celebrities had with a sure-fire recommendation by Coutts, the Queen's bankers, to take some "low risk" exposure to AIG. Or maybe he should have read Liar's poker to realise the recommendation was probably made by some kid making things up as he went along. Even advisers who know something that others don't can reasonably issue that sort of a buy recommendation, and I bet their advice did not say "this is the exact bottom, and they will skyrocket from now on". Nowadays you need someone who understands politics lots more than someone who understands economics when valuing a bank, so there is a potential edge an advisor might have. Anyway, either he was following the advice for a decent reason such as this (in which case he is a knob for throwing his toys out of the pram a couple of days later), or he had no idea why he was doing it (in which case he is a knob for self-evident reasons). Umm... Fairly sure he didn't tweet the above, I'm sure he has nothing but respect for WENO F HALL & CO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScrewsNutsandBolts Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 How much has the bitter Sugar lost now ? Well... 20% of what he put on, and I guess that would have been in the hundreds of thousands (?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terribad Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Ouch, Alan. Lloyds down another 8% today, and its only half 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
down the tubes Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Umm... Fairly sure he didn't tweet the above, I'm sure he has nothing but respect for WENO F HALL & CO Ha, I should check his tweets first! He did! Yeah he's a knob... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeryMeanReversion Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 You're Fried! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamLancs Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Having read this topic, I was intrigued enough to go and learn what other pearls of wisdom the Lord Sugar had placed on his twitter page. I found his page, I think, but all I could see were childish musings about a spelling mistake Piers Morgan won't admit to, or something. Infact, he seemed so preoccupied with this agenda that I can't help wondering if I'm reading a spoof page, as surely nobody could be this sad for real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Sounds like an Amstrad emailer sort of investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I know I'll be ridiculed for this and you can all laugh at me when it goes pear shaped but I can take it I've bought some Lloyd shares at 30p. I see it as a possible hedge against house prices rising. I see two main outcomes 1) Lloyds go bust and the government takes over then the shares become worthless and I lose the lot 2) Lloyds stay in business and I make a profit These aren't my figures but are nice and round. Say you later plan to buy an average priced house at £160k, you now buy 5% in Lloyds shares i.e. £8k If the outcome is 1) surely the downturn in sentiment means that house prices drop by at least 5%? So the loss in the shares is made up for the loss in house price? The £160k drops to £152k? If it's 2) and house prices gradually rise, per 5% they rise you need the shares to make 100% of the initial price e.g. 30p per 5% so they need to go to 60p if the average house price rises to £168k, 90p if houses rise to £176k. I don't think that is unreasonable given the shares have dropped 95% since 2007. Lloyds via HBoS are more tied to UK house prices than say RBS who have more money sucking black holes You have to think of a downside and my biggest one would be Lloyds go bust and come under government control. Someone like Gordon Brown is put in charge of the running them and starts lending any amount of money to anyone with a pulse. Then I have lost the share money and house prices rise as well. If that happens I would be fleeing the UK anyway but with the UK then "booming", hopefully sterling will have risen to offset the share loss. I've messed up haven't I? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Don't sell unless you need the money. Don't buy unless you can afford to lose the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Professor Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Today: RBS up 5.6% BARC up 6.8% LLOY up 3% Now he's only around 15% down on his investment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Note the prescient comment at the bottom of the FTAV article linked in the OP: "In the next episode Donald Trump backs up the truck and buys BofA." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 For the record I sold all my Lloyds shares for 35p today. If an EU deal is sorted they could rise higher tomorrow but my gut is telling me to get rid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You got a link to Sugar's twitter page? How's his investments doing now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scrappycocco Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 One way or another the banks are going to get our money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I know I'll be ridiculed for this and you can all laugh at me when it goes pear shaped but I can take it I've bought some Lloyd shares at 30p. I see it as a possible hedge against house prices rising. I see two main outcomes 1) Lloyds go bust and the government takes over then the shares become worthless and I lose the lot 2) Lloyds stay in business and I make a profit These aren't my figures but are nice and round. Say you later plan to buy an average priced house at £160k, you now buy 5% in Lloyds shares i.e. £8k If the outcome is 1) surely the downturn in sentiment means that house prices drop by at least 5%? So the loss in the shares is made up for the loss in house price? The £160k drops to £152k? If it's 2) and house prices gradually rise, per 5% they rise you need the shares to make 100% of the initial price e.g. 30p per 5% so they need to go to 60p if the average house price rises to £168k, 90p if houses rise to £176k. I don't think that is unreasonable given the shares have dropped 95% since 2007. Lloyds via HBoS are more tied to UK house prices than say RBS who have more money sucking black holes You have to think of a downside and my biggest one would be Lloyds go bust and come under government control. Someone like Gordon Brown is put in charge of the running them and starts lending any amount of money to anyone with a pulse. Then I have lost the share money and house prices rise as well. If that happens I would be fleeing the UK anyway but with the UK then "booming", hopefully sterling will have risen to offset the share loss. I've messed up haven't I? or you could just buy a house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 or you could just buy a house. It's hard to buy a house when you cannot agree on where to live. I have made the mistake of renting 5 miles from her son, rather than the 400 miles before that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 You got a link to Sugar's twitter page? How's his investments doing now? Depending on exactly when he bought them it looks like he's just about breaking even.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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