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Oxfordite

House Prices Are Falling

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I have a friend a work who lives in Oxford. He has been trying to sell his house for 10 months now. His original asking price was £325,000 for a nice standard 3 bed semi-detached and has dropped his price three times, the lastest asking price is now £289,999. He's had over 40 viewings.

When interest rates came down 1/4 percent this summer he said he had a flood of viewings- amazing! People only look to the next month.

He's been looking at dozens of houses to move to and agrees that all other sellers are reducing their price by the same amount. I asked him if he thinks house prices are crashing and he said yes if you define a crash of 10% a year.

He knows that I visit this site and told him I was going to post this anecdote here, he wanted me to ask if anyone would be interest in a nice house in Oxford for £289,000.

(My own belief is after this mini crash that deflation not inflation is on the way. As soon as this oil price boom and recent massive US government and private spending (the biggest injection of borrowed cash into any economy in history) ends then prices will fall and so will inflation we'll have another mini house price boom as people think they can borrow more then a deflationary depression miles worst than recent Japan)

Edited by Oxfordite

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That anecdote raises an interesting question about house price stats:

If asking prices are falling, then why aren't the stats showing it? If it's because the houses aren't actually selling, then that indicates there's a massive fall still to come!

Could the HPC publish it's own house price indicator, drawn by some correction of statistics published by others?

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-918...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

That house in Oxford looks really nice. If it was here I would be tempted to buy it.!

Its a better price than what you can buy "up North" for £300k - see above.!!

Its a strange time when property in areas like Oxford seem cheaper than prices here in Harrogate, wages are not as high here so its a total inbalance.

Looks like "up North" is going to have a major hit this time when the correction happens.!!

:huh:

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(My own belief is after this mini crash that deflation not inflation is on the way. As soon as this oil price boom and recent massive US government and private spending (the biggest injection of borrowed cash into any economy in history) ends then prices will fall and so will inflation we'll have another mini house price boom as people think they can borrow more then a deflationary depression miles worst than recent Japan)

Deflation is the strawman for massive counterfeiting in the money supply, when it's growing in double digits you won't have deflation.

As for the hurricanes being good for growth, they totally ignore the lost production and lost assets in their figures, even with all that money spent and the Gulf coast restored they haven't created anything new, they've just replaced what was there before, hence no real growth. If such destruction was such a good thing then what city do they recommend taking out next year, how about a few bombing runs over Seattle, a great fire in Washington? Saying that a trashed city is good for the economy is something straight out of catch 22 where the enemy outsourced the destruction of their own camp to the union.

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Deflation is the strawman for massive counterfeiting in the money supply, when it's growing in double digits you won't have deflation.

Increasing money supply can't go on forever. I think this might happen At some stage SE Asia won't support the dollar due to yield- dollar will fall - Americans will stop buying things- (Although the yuan will increase in value the average chinese daily pay will only go from £5 to £10 or else production moves elsewhere) world has over capacity -deflation comes.

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(My own belief is after this mini crash that deflation not inflation is on the way. As soon as this oil price boom and recent massive US government and private spending (the biggest injection of borrowed cash into any economy in history) ends then prices will fall and so will inflation we'll have another mini house price boom as people think they can borrow more then a deflationary depression miles worst than recent Japan)

You are a very bright girl - and if that is you in your avatar then you have very nice breasts also! :rolleyes:

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My brother lives in Oxford he is about to move in with his Girlfriend. Both of them managed to sell their current places for full asking prices. He had a 3 bed House and she had 1 bed flat (maybe 2). He also works as a conveyancer and his company got record results this year <_<

I'm a bear by the way, just seems that there are still a few mugs around. He did say that there were a lot of people using equity from their parents house etc.

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I'm in Oxford and would agree with the c10% drops in the past year. In the past couple of years we've gone from despairing of ever being able to afford anything at all to being able to afford quite a lot of places that we'd be very happy to live in. This has partly happened because of unexpected promotion but mainly because of savings whilst renting plus house price drops. We probably would buy the right place but as the properties in our price range just keep getting better there's no rush.

I'd spotted that house. It looks nice and it's in my price range. Problem with Iffley is that you're never quite sure when it means Rose Hill (I know that sounds lovely to the uninitiated but it isn't!). I had friends who were technically in Iffley but often had burnt out cars outside and didn't feel too safe. Also, the schools can be dodgy for the above reason. You don't want to pay that price to live in Rose Hill. What's more property in places like Headington and Wolvercote has also come down.

I'd also say that stamp duty is a problem even at £40K over the limit. If I'm reading the street right then only one house on that street has ever gone over the stamp duty threshold (Dec '04 £333K).

I suspect many people in Oxford with the ready funds in that price range feel the same way I do. Can buy and will if the right place comes up but simply unwilling to part with cash for anything else as there is no pressure to do so.

If your friend wants an honest answer then do tell him that (if it is closer in to Iffley then I might be more interested!)

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Ah, it's 5 Egerton Road.

If I went to look at this property I would come straight back home and check it out on ourproperty.co.uk where I would discover that if was bought for £182K in Dec 2001.

I realise that all property has gone up in that time and that your friend needs to keep up with the market to buy the next place. However, seeing the figure in black and white is like a cold shower. Originally he wsa trying to get £325K after 3yrs of ownership. That's almost £50K for every year that he has lived there. Now it's dropped to almost £25K a year but I don't want to pay him that kind of bonus through my hard earned cash especially as the Oxford market has been stalled or falling for about half of that time.

Apologies to your friend but looking at what he paid and what else has been paid on that street I think that it was simply over priced in the first place. If he had put it on in the spring of 2004 he may have got over £300K as someone else did but I think it was a mistake to do that after the summer of 2004. If I was him I would forget the cuts I'd already taken and I'd see £289 as a reasonable STARTING price and be willing to accept offers (assuming he wants to move) then try to get a similar discount on the place that he is buying.

If these internet sites are better known I think that they really could change people's perception of reasonable price.

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Ah, it's 5 Egerton Road.

If I went to look at this property I would come straight back home and check it out on ourproperty.co.uk where I would discover that if was bought for £182K in Dec 2001.

I realise that all property has gone up in that time and that your friend needs to keep up with the market to buy the next place. However, seeing the figure in black and white is like a cold shower. Originally he wsa trying to get £325K after 3yrs of ownership. That's almost £50K for every year that he has lived there. Now it's dropped to almost £25K a year but I don't want to pay him that kind of bonus through my hard earned cash especially as the Oxford market has been stalled or falling for about half of that time.

Apologies to your friend but looking at what he paid and what else has been paid on that street I think that it was simply over priced in the first place. If he had put it on in the spring of 2004 he may have got over £300K as someone else did but I think it was a mistake to do that after the summer of 2004. If I was him I would forget the cuts I'd already taken and I'd see £289 as a reasonable STARTING price and be willing to accept offers (assuming he wants to move) then try to get a similar discount on the place that he is buying.

If these internet sites are better known I think that they really could change people's perception of reasonable price.

Sir, I salute your cold and hard logic.

I certainly feel that free Land Registry data will work badly against sellers in a falling market. "You want HOW %$^!@ much more than you paid for it for sitting on your ****!?"

So beware new developments shoe-horned into an existing residentail area - there's nothing to compare the new shacks with!

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Apologies to your friend but looking at what he paid and what else has been paid on that street I think that it was simply over priced in the first place. If he had put it on in the spring of 2004 he may have got over £300K as someone else did but I think it was a mistake to do that after the summer of 2004.

My friend doesn't strike me as greedy at all, he only wants to move to a place of similar size nearer to a better school for his kids. He probably wanted to get £325K because all other places were similarly over-priced and who can resist a large asking price when a 'professional' cocky estate agent tells you can get zillons for your house. Except for people on HPC.co.uk like me :D people weren't sure where house prices were going and he wasn't & isn't that desperate to sell.

Edited by Oxfordite

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That anecdote raises an interesting question about house price stats:

If asking prices are falling, then why aren't the stats showing it? If it's because the houses aren't actually selling, then that indicates there's a massive fall still to come!

Could the HPC publish it's own house price indicator, drawn by some correction of statistics published by others?

What I would really like is for someone to build a website where buyers named their affordable price and their expectations and then sellers could do some of the legwork. In the current scenario it might add a reality check for sellers around their expectations. If properties that had been on the market a long time were then taken off the EA books and sold in this way it would also have the added side effect of badly shaft those EA bastards I hate soooo much ;)

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I'm in Oxford and would agree with the c10% drops in the past year. In the past couple of years we've gone from despairing of ever being able to afford anything at all to being able to afford quite a lot of places that we'd be very happy to live in. This has partly happened because of unexpected promotion but mainly because of savings whilst renting plus house price drops. We probably would buy the right place but as the properties in our price range just keep getting better there's no rush.

I'd spotted that house. It looks nice and it's in my price range. Problem with Iffley is that you're never quite sure when it means Rose Hill (I know that sounds lovely to the uninitiated but it isn't!). I had friends who were technically in Iffley but often had burnt out cars outside and didn't feel too safe. Also, the schools can be dodgy for the above reason.

Its in Rose Hill and its not the best place in Oxford. I'll stick to my rented flat in Central Oxford.

Edited by Oxfordite

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Courtesy of www.rightmove.co.uk, courtesy of LR.

FH = Freehold; LH = Leasehold; NB = Newly Build Homes

Deed date Address Type Price Tenure NB?

22 Dec 2004 12 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £333,000 FH

09 Jul 2003 4 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £250,000 FH

25 Jun 2003 2 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £238,000 FH

19 Dec 2001 5 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £182,000 FH

31 Oct 2001 10 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £67,500 FH

01 Jun 2001 3 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £180,000 FH

06 Apr 2001 6 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £138,000 FH

09 Jun 2000 11 Egerton Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX4 4JF Semi-Detached £197,000 FH

Source: House price data produced by Land Registry

© Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Land Registry (HMLR). This material was last updated on 20 September 2005. It covers the period from 01 April 2000 to 31 July 2005.

Edited by Buffer Bear

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Thanks for the informative post Oxfordite.

I'm based in Oxford too. I'm not so familiar with the location of the house you mention, but it isnt in the worst council/chav part of Rose Hill by a long way. I'd call it a reasonable but not posh area.

Anyway I just wanted to concur that prices in Oxford are lower than the peak. I would say they have fallen at least 5%. I am looking at the lower end of the market (<200k). I think the falls are starting in the mid to upper echelons of the market and consequently putting pressure on the lower end.

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Its in Rose Hill and its not the best place in Oxford. I'll stick to my rented flat in Central Oxford.

Interesting thread.

This is exactly the sort of property my partner and I are potentially looking for in Oxford. To be honest it's probably a little too 'polished' and we'd be looking for more of a 'project'. I have seen similar less polished properties on the market for around 250k a very similar location (around the corner in fact).

The first thing is location. 'Iffley borders' is in fact 'Rose Hill' For those who live in London and sneer at estate agents calling Archway - 'Highgate slopes', this is in the same league. Kinda puts you off before you begin.

Interesting how you say that they want to move so that their kids can go to a nicer school. I take it that the schools in Rose Hill are a bit too Chavtastic for them! ;)

Once I see places like this coming on below the 250k mark I will start actively looking, but I wouldn't consider 289k a resonable starting price.

To put it in perspective at the moment we rent a 3 bed victorian house 5 mins walk from the city centre for £700 per month.

I have seen asking prices noticably falling in Oxford over the last couple of months though.

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Oxfordite, I in no way meant to imply that your friend was gready. As I said, all property has gone up in that time and he needs to keep up with the market. However, the market has now dropped and with hindsight it is clear that it had already started to drop at the point when he put it on. For that reason I think it is probably best if he forgets that he ever put it on above its current price and he should try not to think 'I've already cut it by £Xk I'm not taking any further offers' (if that is how he does think - many many people do) and should just feel that it was a mistake to advertise it at that price.

IMHO the problem he now has is that it is still a bit on the high side compared to what you can get elsewhere but if he brings it down much more he hits the stamp duty problem. If he's not desperate to sell and just wants to see then that's fine, if he were desperate to sell then, if I were him, I'd put it on at £250K - it would be a pretty decent house in that range and if you wre lucky you'd get a bidding war.

I hope I don't sound too negative as it looks very nice in terms of size and decor.

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Personally I couldn't give a to** what the Halifax report.

The economic situation will continue to deteriorate and the housing market is in no position for a recovery.

Whilst the Halifax figures are mildly disappointing - the housing market remains in deep trouble along with most of Gordon Brown's miracle economy.

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I have a friend a work who lives in Oxford. He has been trying to sell his house for 10 months now. His original asking price was £325,000 for a nice standard 3 bed semi-detached and has dropped his price three times, the lastest asking price is now £289,999. He's had over 40 viewings.

When interest rates came down 1/4 percent this summer he said he had a flood of viewings- amazing! People only look to the next month.

He's been looking at dozens of houses to move to and agrees that all other sellers are reducing their price by the same amount. I asked him if he thinks house prices are crashing and he said yes if you define a crash of 10% a year.

I think what this example shows - [and there are LOADS of people in the same boat] - is that the market is crawling along like a snail at best; but it is dying - and prices due to plunge downwards. This is becasue there is just no real volume of buyers out there. Most people are now really skint in terms of ingoings-outgoings. All the people I talk to every week from friends, co-workers, people you meet in shops, streets etc. - and all their friends agree on one thing; unless your retired with a really good secured pension - those in the 20-50+ age group are BROKE!! They are heavily over borrowed - vast no:'s borrowed via "equity release" [the biggest financil scam by the moneylenders in history] - and many many people are actually quite desperate - wondering how they're going to afford to live. I cannot deny it - I thought the sh*t would hit the fan 2-3 years ago -- ALL this is symptomatic of the World's Biggest Ever Pyramid Selling Scam - the UK housing "market" [as well as Oz, Ireland, US etc.] - which actually has, over the last 10-15 years especially - become a get rich quick MASSIVE scam - where those in too late are totally scr*wed. All down to the banks/moneylenders I'm afraid - THEY need to be nobbled now - if necessary by popular revolt - literally - smash them down - and garrot the managers. Isn't his SO obvious?? Is it just me? All those gut-wrenching adverts for "equity release" - SUCH a scam!!! So obviously a route to hell?

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Hi Eric,

There are buyers out there, I'm one. Just not at that price!

I wouldn't even bother going to have a look at it at that price. I agree with RET. if he dropped it to 250k he'd probably have loads of offers. But £325k - £250k is erm... probably 'a crash'. And we wouldn't want that would we!!!! (or at least the Halifax wouldn't)

Why prolong the agony? It's gonna happen eventually, the economy can't support house prices this high.

Let's get on with it!!!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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