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LB - Don't panic - you are being fed Propaganda! by MikeSmall 05 Oct 2005 09:43 AM

Only the "unbiased and well reserached and informed journos" at the BBC.Com could assert that a 51% fall H1 2005 Vs H1 2004 could be a " rebound".

Fact is that MEW was : -

Q1 2004 - 16,236

Q2 2004 - 14,471

30,707

Q1 2005 - 6,437

Q2 2005 - 8,707

15,144

So Q1 falls 58.8% YOY and Q2 falls 40% YOY - Some Rebound!

I wish people in responsible positions would just be honest - or perhaps think about what they are writing - as some unfortunate people may well make decisions based on such total garbage!

MEW is falling - and falling rapidly - as it did 1991- 1996 - when in fact it turned negative throughout whole of 95,96,97 and first half 98.

Given retail sales figures in the last three months my suspicion is that MEW will have fallen off a cliff in Q3 - but we shall need to wait another 3 months for the B of E to confirm that assumption.

Mike Small

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I think that MEW falling is good news for all. Less debt therefore less exposure to HPC for those that bought a home pre-2004. Also less MEW means less spending on the high street which means eventually interest rates will be cut to avert recession. Looks good from where I'm sitting.

This may well happen, but you don't say what happens after the IR cut. How would it avert a recession? Would MEW pick up in order to allow more spending on the High street? Would MEW remain low and high street spending not increase, meaning further rate cuts, until we are back where we were 2 years ago?

Isn't this just a vicious circle that will all amount to the same thing? HPC?

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Also less MEW means less spending on the high street which means eventually interest rates will be cut to avert recession.

How's that going to work apollo?

Rates just went down but Barclaycard put 2% on their standard credit card rate to cover increase in bad debt.

Don't delude yourself that any cuts in IRs from here will make any difference as banks will at the sametime be covering rise in bad debts and therefore unlikely they will pass on the cuts to the consumer.

This is all academic in the face of rising inflation anyway but I think it's fair to say that with rates already so low any further cuts, if they happen will have ZERO impact.

Edited by munimula

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I think that MEW falling is good news for all. Less debt therefore less exposure to HPC for those that bought a home pre-2004. Also less MEW means less spending on the high street which means eventually interest rates will be cut to avert recession. Looks good from where I'm sitting.

Less spending on the high street = lob losses = less money spent in the economy = more job losses from other supporting industries.

Can I ask are you employed or do you work for yourself? What is the chance of you being becoming one of those unemployed?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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