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U.s. Consumer Sentiment Slumps, Retail Sales Jump

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http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/12/u-s-consumer-sentiment-slumps-retail-sales-jump/

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK — Consumer sentiment worsened sharply in early August, falling to the lowest level in more than three decades, even though retail sales posted the biggest gains in four months in July, separate reports on Friday showed.

Consumer sentiment, which hit its lowest since 1980 when the economy was in recession, fell on fears of a stalled economic recovery combined with gloom from partisan bickering over government debt, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey reported.

The preliminary August reading on the consumer sentiment index fell to 54.9 in early August, down from 63.7 in July, and has fallen for three straight months. The August reading was well below the median forecast of 63.0 among economists polled by Reuters.

However, U.S. retail sales climbed 0.5 percent in July, the biggest jump since March, following a revised rise of 0.3 percent gain in June, according to the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday.

Just imagine what it would be if the US was in recession.. :ph34r:

Still at least retail sales are up.

And when Bernanke unleashes QE3 it can only get better.

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Consumer sentiment worsened sharply in early August, falling to the lowest level in more than three decades, even though retail sales posted the biggest gains in four months

How does that work then?

Looking at that chart they've tracked each other quite closely for the last 15 years, until quite recently.

Is there some fiddling going on with the retail sales figures?

Apparently "retail" sales include petrol, which allegedly accounts for a fair bit of this seeming disparity.

US retail sales rise on petrol price increases

US retail sales rose for the 10th month in a row in April, but most of the increase was due to higher petrol prices, official data has shown.

Sales went up by 0.5% last month, after March's 0.9% rise. Excluding a 2.7% jump in petrol prices, the rise in retail sales in April was only 0.2%.

Petrol prices have risen strongly this year in the US, with some analysts concerned it will mean consumers have less money for other purchases.

US wholesale prices also increased.

The rise was again put down to the higher cost of petrol, and other energy bills.

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It's been asked before, and I'll ask again.

Do "retail sales figures" measure the volume of goods purchased, or the amount of money spent? If the latter, how much is due to inflation i.e. more money being spent on the same volume or even a smaller volume of goods?

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retail sales inflation adjusted?

yep....when there is little left after paying for the inflationary necessities in life confidence must be fairly low. ;)

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Could this graph be read as a collective statement from the US Public of:

'Looks like I'm going broke anyway, so might as well go out run up the limit on all my credit cards while I'm at it and hide the loot round mum's house before the baliffs arrive'

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If food/energy costs are increasing as they seem to be, wouldn't that mean less disposable income = lower consumer confidence?

Luckily Bernanke to counter this will print more money which is given to the bankers for free which will be bet on food/energy prices going up further which will lower disposable income and confidence further allowing Bernanke to do the same again to try and improve confidence.

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Luckily Bernanke to counter this will print more money which is given to the bankers for free which will be bet on food/energy prices going up further which will lower disposable income and confidence further allowing Bernanke to do the same again to try and improve confidence.

I think we should all be given it.....give us a chance to bet on oil, food and commodities...money for nothing for the price of a bet......that should push the prices up for everyone who has to do real work for a living....you couldn't make it up (still thinking lipstick). ;)

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understated inflation is the cause of that break in the correlation

Good shout, I dont think "core" inflation includes fuel or food, so if they are above inflation it would explain the split in the lines

Edited by FIGGY

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  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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