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chronyx

Avoiding The Next Hpi/hpc

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My question is to those who 'saw this all coming'.

How? What articles did you read - was it independant research? Gut feeling? Did you try and take advantage of HPI? Or just leave people to it?

I ask as it is obviously not possible to rely on MSM for a real idea of what is going on. I would hate to unintentionally get caught in the next boom/bust, whatever the next subject will be.

True, a lot of people were greedy (Usually all too keen to tell you of their smart investing) but some were just genuinley ignorant, saved up, did everything 'properly', trusted the surveyor/EA, just to buy a home, and will have got burnt.

What's the best way to stay reliably/truthfully informed? I was very lucky to find HPC as I was looking at houses when I joined, after reading here I thought "Well I'll give it a few months then, see what happens."

I apologise for a very open-ended and poorly-written question!

Edited by chronyx

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For me, it was just being able to remember what happened in the late 80s to mid 90s. Unbelievable how politicians, media and individuals seemed to completely forget the devastation and causes of the 90s HPC. A kind of national amnesia. FFS, the crash was in the mid 90s and less than 10 years later there's another massive bubble!

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." (George Santayana)

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My question is to those who 'saw this all coming'.

How? What articles did you read - was it independant research? Gut feeling? Did you try and take advantage of HPI? Or just leave people to it?

I ask as it is obviously not possible to rely on MSM for a real idea of what is going on. I would hate to unintentionally get caught in the next boom/bust, whatever the next subject will be.

True, a lot of people were greedy (Usually all too keen to tell you of their smart investing) but some were just genuinley ignorant, saved up, did everything 'properly', trusted the surveyor/EA, just to buy a home, and will have got burnt.

What's the best way to stay reliably/truthfully informed? I was very lucky to find HPC as I was looking at houses when I joined, after reading here I thought "Well I'll give it a few months then, see what happens."

I apologise for a very open-ended and poorly-written question!

It involves seeing that incomes do not match home prices - seeing more and more being offered as multiples of incomes for buying boxes with little intrinsic value - knowing that investment money which should be in the productive economy is being siphoned off to property in massive quantities - seeing 125% mortgages appearing! - finding people who bought in 1994-7 would not be bale to buy their homes over again at current prices. It all means THEY ARE FAR TOO MUCH - 1997-2010 incomes rise by 98% and houses rise by 250-400%. Batty. It involves seeing govt policy failing by having unrealistically low interest rates for years, here and the US. It involves noticing that the BTL market is out of control and that finance available is so easy to get it's frightening - liar loans - no checks by lenders. Gifted deposits by developers to trick lenders into rediculous loans for overpriced flats!! Need to know more? coz there's a ton of it. Never seen it as bad in the last 40 yrs

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Need to know more? coz there's a ton of it. Never seen it as bad in the last 40 yrs

Always! That was a very informative post though, thank you.

I'm just fascinated to know what 'we' have/know that others don't. Most people see exactly what you have listed above as 'normal'. Well they don't even 'see' it, it's just how things are!

I'm no genius - in my case it was just particularly lucky I went back for one more round of research, and was fortunate to stumble upon HPC. I always look into things thoroughly, maybe that's all there is to it!

Edited by chronyx

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For me it was when the figures just did not add up . I saw the 90's crash and thought the housing would never be able to bubble again but it did.

I was earning good money and knew most people earn't less so i just could not work out how people were doing it untill I realised about liar loans .

Then I was in a conversation one night at work and one guy talking about property quoted £250k for a house being cheap. Another guy bit his head off and shouted at him

" do you really think a fking quater of a million £ , 10x the average wage before tax is fking cheap get into reality "

That sentance really bought the message home when I thought about it.

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My question is to those who 'saw this all coming'.

How? What articles did you read - was it independant research? Gut feeling? Did you try and take advantage of HPI? Or just leave people to it?

I ask as it is obviously not possible to rely on MSM for a real idea of what is going on. I would hate to unintentionally get caught in the next boom/bust, whatever the next subject will be.

True, a lot of people were greedy (Usually all too keen to tell you of their smart investing) but some were just genuinley ignorant, saved up, did everything 'properly', trusted the surveyor/EA, just to buy a home, and will have got burnt.

What's the best way to stay reliably/truthfully informed? I was very lucky to find HPC as I was looking at houses when I joined, after reading here I thought "Well I'll give it a few months then, see what happens."

I apologise for a very open-ended and poorly-written question!

...it was as simple as 1+1 = 2....I returned from overseas in 2003 and 'borrowing to make money' mainly in property was a fever...and MEWing for cars , BTL, holiday homes, holidays etc made everyone appear and feel rich ....it sure was fantasy ...and could only go one way as the lenders softened their qualifying criteria to keep the bubble inflating as the slowdown had birth pangs around 2005....they needed to keep the ball spinning as did the Government....it was a no brainer....the mob were hysterical with greed fever and even with no brains could not see it.... :rolleyes:

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For me it was when a mate who had not long came out of nick and done very little work in the past ,managed too get a 125% NR mortgage on a 200k flat and promptly shot of to Thailand and bought a bar and never lived in the flat ,and in his own words it was like taking candy of a baby

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For me it was when a mate who had not long came out of nick and done very little work in the past ,managed too get a 125% NR mortgage on a 200k flat and promptly shot of to Thailand and bought a bar and never lived in the flat ,and in his own words it was like taking candy of a baby

...did it work...does he still have the business...?... :rolleyes:

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So a lot of previous experience helped. Looks like with pressure from family, partners, and EA's with 'logical' numbers/graphs, it would have been all to easy for someone my age to have fallen for it hook line and sinker...

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So a lot of previous experience helped. Looks like with pressure from family, partners, and EA's with 'logical' numbers/graphs, it would have been all to easy for someone my age to have fallen for it hook line and sinker...

...agreed ...think internal family pressure was a big problem for some who were dragged by the heels.... :rolleyes:

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I bought in 98, sold and bought in 01 and made a 75% ROI on the first property in that time. I thought then 'we'll never see that kind of HPI again in my lifetime' !

I have to confess I'm a late convert to HPC because even though I knew there'd ultimately be a correction what I didn't realise, and you were very prescient if you did, how massively in hock to house prices the whole economy was and is. The coming correction might just poison home ownership for a generation.

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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