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THE BIG GERMAN THREAD

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I think the time may be upon us......................

Discuss.........

I'll kick off with a DB chart - down 12%, yesterday's close, 2% off this morning (it's the NYSE listing, not the DB listing)

http://stockcharts.c...id=p60309059202

(someone has to beat Durch to the draw!)

Edited by Red Knight

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I think the time may be upon us......................

Discuss.........

I'll kick off with a DB chart - down 12% this morning

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60309059202

(someone has to beat Durch to the draw!)

That chart is somewhat 'busy'. And whilst it says -12%, is that accurate? BBC says -3.37%, is that because of the delay in getting the price?

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That chart is somewhat 'busy'. And whilst it says -12%, is that accurate? BBC says -3.37%, is that because of the delay in getting the price?

Apols, that's yesterday's close. Corrected.(NYSE listing). More haste less speed...........:rolleyes:

Edited by Red Knight

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D@mn! I was expecting something along the lines of "Germany on its knees! Andorran taxpayers reluctant to fund bailout!" :lol:

To be fair, has anyone calculated exactly how much Germany can afford to spend bailing out other countries, before it becomes part of the problem? We've always assumed that their taxpayers will pull the plug before Germany itself fails. What if they don't, or if their masters (mistress?) won't let them? How many landesbanks need to fail before the entire house of cards falls?

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This article has some facts and figures :-

UK and German debt

So UK debt to GDP is 80% and Germany's 83.2%. Deficits appear to be 10% and 3% respectively.

So German finances are better than UK but not as great as many people imagine.

But what about private debt? Have you got the figures on that?

I believe the average German has far less credit card and mortgage debt hanging around their necks? And MEWing is non-existant (i think)

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But what about private debt? Have you got the figures on that?

I believe the average German has far less credit card and mortgage debt hanging around their necks? And MEWing is non-existant (i think)

Quite. Furthermore there is Germany's industrial base that produces one of the worlds biggest trade surpluses at about $180bn.

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But what about private debt? Have you got the figures on that?

These is a nice (but slightly out of date) graph here :-

scary graph

I believe the average German has far less credit card and mortgage debt hanging around their necks? And MEWing is non-existant (i think)

According to the link household debt for us and Germany is 103% and 64%, so your belief would appear to be correct.

More interesting figures :-

external debt

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Some countries like Germany and China are actually culturally disposed to surpluses I think.

I happen to think we are basically very similar.

Germany doesn't have to suffer the BBC though, it's very hard to swim against a constant flood of statist economically illiterate propaganda.

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I happen to think we are basically very similar.

Germany doesn't have to suffer the BBC though, it's very hard to swim against a constant flood of statist economically illiterate propaganda.

I believe Germany still has numerous debts from re-unification - Wiki puts Berlin alone at owing 60bn (2008 figure). Berlin is still being repaired today, I'm always staggered at the continuous reconstruction and what it must cost . . . huge projects are ongoing, like the airports, all mainline stations, the main interchange at Ostkreuz.

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I believe Germany still has numerous debts from re-unification - Wiki puts Berlin alone at owing 60bn (2008 figure).

An increasing number of people seem to be proposing that the solution to the current crisis is some form of large scale default. If they are right about this (and I suspect they are) then what matters most is our deficit figure.

This is where Germany is clearly in a better position than we are.

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I believe Germany still has numerous debts from re-unification - Wiki puts Berlin alone at owing 60bn (2008 figure). Berlin is still being repaired today, I'm always staggered at the continuous reconstruction and what it must cost . . . huge projects are ongoing, like the airports, all mainline stations, the main interchange at Ostkreuz.

Yes. But doesn't the continuous construction work create employment. Materials are locally produced as well, particularly the steel needed for these infrastructure products. A bit Keynesian really.

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The German government likes to pride itself on its solid finances and claim the country is a safe haven for investors. But Germany's budget management is not nearly as exemplary as it would have people believe, and the national debt is way over the EU's limit. In some respects, Italy's finances are in much better shape.

Full article here:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,799059,00.html

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Bump for TMT

(my OP was admittedly hurried and rubbish but I'm sure the good folks of HPC can give it the makeover it richly deserves)

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I've had a similar German thread running on CC for a few days.

10 year bund rates seem to be creeping up, though its too early to call a real trend.

17th Nov: 1.78

21st Nov: 1.81

Today: 1.94

It's quite possible I have misunderstood this, so all corrections are welcome.

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Oops, there is one already. I must read this forum more often :rolleyes:

Damn you. :P

Can somebody merge them?

Edited by Timm

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Bump for TMT

(my OP was admittedly hurried and rubbish but I'm sure the good folks of HPC can give it the makeover it richly deserves)

Looks like you called it a few months early.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8897775/Asian-powers-spurn-German-debt-on-EMU-chaos.html

Asian investors and central banks have begun to sell German bonds and pull

out of the eurozone altogether for the first time since the debt crisis began,

deeming EU leaders incapable of agreeing on any coherent policy.

Andrew Roberts, rates chief at Royal Bank of Scotland, said Asia's exodus marks a dangerous inflexion point in the unfolding drama. "Japanese and Asian investors are for the first time looking at the euro project and saying `I don't like what I see at all' and fleeing the whole region.

"The question on everybody's mind in the debt markets is whether it is time to get out Germany. The European Central Bank has a €2 trillion balance sheet and if the eurozone slides into the abyss, Germany is going to be left holding the baby. We are very close to the point where markets take a close look at this, though we are there yet," he said.

Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup chief, fueled the fire by warning that Germany is no longer a sound credit with debt of 82pc of GDP. "I think the level of German debt is worrying. Germany has higher debts than Spain," he said.

(...)

Bunds clearly still enjoy safe-haven status. Yields are just 1.86pc, but a pattern has begun to emerge over the last week where they no longer strengthen as much with each fresh sell-off in Italy, Spain, or France.

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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