Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
7clubs

Q: Why Did The Bear Cross The Road?

Recommended Posts

So that's it, then?

Another fluffy white rabbit pulled out of the Central Bankers' Incredible Bottomless Magic Hat.

ZIRP 4eva - to infinity - and beyond! Well, 2013, anyway. Next stop, NIRP? Been going on for years, mate.

What's a simple bear to do? Financially semi-literate at best, a modicum of common-sense, open-eyed and clueless. Beats wide-eyed and legless, or is it wide-legged and eyeless (oops, that's Plenty Of Fish territory, wrong thread).

John and Jane D'Oh bimble on in blissful ignorance, with their BRTs and their SVRs, throw in a smidge of SMI and WTF?!?!

Trading? Unless you're frigging in the rigging, gotta be gambling, whatever your fancy-schmancy charts and waves tell you.

PPT? Almost certainly - what was yesterday all about?

BTL? Stacked the numbers up back in the late 90s (so last century, darling) - it was me pension, innit - cashed in when fivers were waved.

STR? Back in 2000, mate, 23% in a year, it can't last.....

Gold? God knows (and he ain't tellin'). The paper-stuff? Ponzi. Physical? Could be off to the moon. First thought of jumping in mid-2000 (honest!), but decided to piss the money up the wall for a few years instead - best investment I ever made. Thing is, if every other "market" is manipulated into the trillions, why would the shiny stuff be any different? And how do you know which side your bread is buttered (or will it be creamed?).

Black Swan? Burned to the ground years ago. Insurance job, so they reckon.

London's Burning? Angry punk call-to-arms or nursery rhyme?

So that's it, then.

20% off peak and cheap fixed money - expecting RBS et al to be commanded to flood more low, low fixed rates into grateful arms any day now, mine included.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great post. Succinctly sums up exactly how I'm feeling.

My wife and I are FTBs, both 33 and on above national average salaries (though nothing spectacular). Looking to buy a 3 bed semi in Midlands for c£200,000 (would have been £80,000 ten years ago) within the next few years. We have a 10% deposit and adding to it by over £1k every month. Aiming for a 15% or 20% deposit ahead of purchasing - depending on local prices / mortgage availability closer to the time.

This has gone on for too long now and I'm resigned to the situation. I thought the crash of 2008 would knock some sense into the wider public but it clearly hasn't. They're just waiting for the credit tap to be turned on once again so they can fill their boots some more with all that lovely "property". Northern Rock was 4 years ago and what have they learned? Nothing.

There is no free market. Just pick your timing and go with the herd/flock. Common sense and good judgement isn't going to prevail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great post. Succinctly sums up exactly how I'm feeling.

My wife and I are FTBs, both 33 and on above national average salaries (though nothing spectacular). Looking to buy a 3 bed semi in Midlands for c£200,000 (would have been £80,000 ten years ago) within the next few years. We have a 10% deposit and adding to it by over £1k every month. Aiming for a 15% or 20% deposit ahead of purchasing - depending on local prices / mortgage availability closer to the time.

This has gone on for too long now and I'm resigned to the situation. I thought the crash of 2008 would knock some sense into the wider public but it clearly hasn't. They're just waiting for the credit tap to be turned on once again so they can fill their boots some more with all that lovely "property". Northern Rock was 4 years ago and what have they learned? Nothing.

There is no free market. Just pick your timing and go with the herd/flock. Common sense and good judgement isn't going to prevail.

Indeed.

Last year was just about kicking the can of hope along. I think it's probably best for everyone concerned that we collectively acknowledge that the Bulls won via proxy fluke shots, and get on with our lives.

Real term price reductions just won’t cut the mustard for most. Time to accept that there will be no nominal house price crash correction, time to move on.

The only real game change left is state failure, and in that event house prices will be the last thing on yor mind.

Edited by PopGun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed.

Last year was just about kicking the can of hope along. I think it's probably best for everyone concerned that we collectively acknowledge that the Bulls won via proxy fluke shots, and get on with our lives.

Real term price reductions just won’t cut the mustard for most. Time to accept that there will be no nominal house price crash correction, time to move on.

The only real game change left is state failure, and in that event house prices will be the last thing on yor mind.

This forum (the world) just depresses me more and more each day. Time to just accept our lot and crack on with trying to make the best of it then. Ho hum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This forum (the world) just depresses me more and more each day. Time to just accept our lot and crack on with trying to make the best of it then. Ho hum.

Yep. And maybe pick up a free pair of Reeboks while you're at it.

I see theft, crime and corruption all around me. The only difference is the method. The poor may loot it from your hands but the rich take it directly from your earnings and savings.

And they've robbed us good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utopia (lower house prices) always seems to be just a few months away on HPC.

How true is that looking ahead?

  • Unresolved Euro Debt Crisis
  • Impact of riots on foreigners currently buying places in London (which masks falls elsewhere in the Halliwide indices)
  • Qualification for SMI is at present due to end this year
  • Inflation re fuel bills pushing overextended (and non-extended!) households closer to the brink
  • Supply to the housing market hitting record levels after four years' pent-up supply
  • EAs desperate for transactions putting the pressure on vendors (with Rightmove chipping in too)
  • Demand from potential house buyers still dropping off
  • Retrictions to Housing Benefit
  • The mythical spending cuts kicking in
  • Above all, in my opinion, an end to the 'buy a house before it's too late' sentiment

On the other hand

  • No IR rise for the foreseeable future
  • Vendors with little reason to drop prices
  • No wage growth to make houses falling in real terms any more affordable
  • Rising rents seemingly making cheap mortgages look like a better option

I'm sure I've missed some off the list!

Edited by rantnrave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utopia (lower house prices) always seems to be just a few months away on HPC.

How true is that looking ahead?

  • Unresolved Euro Debt Crisis
  • Impact of riots on foreigners currently buying places in London (which masks falls elsewhere in the Halliwide indices)
  • Qualification for SMI is at present due to end this year
  • Inflation re fuel bills pushing overextended (and non-extended!) households closer to the brink
  • Supply to the housing market hitting record levels after four years' pent-up supply
  • EAs desperate for transactions putting the pressure on vendors (with Rightmove chipping in too)
  • Demand from potential house buyers still dropping off
  • Retrictions to Housing Benefit
  • The mythical spending cuts kicking in
  • Above all, in my opinion, an end to the 'buy a house before it's too late' sentiment

On the other hand

  • No IR rise for the foreseeable future
  • Vendors with little reason to drop prices
  • No wage growth to make houses falling in real terms any more affordable
  • Rising rents seemingly making cheap mortgages look like a better option[/b]

I'm sure I've missed some off the list!

Most points covered as far as I can see. Thing is, even though the first list is longer and contains some important factors, the factors in the second list trump all. Until these change, I can't see anything other than a slow grind down over many many years, possibly even a flatline. Depressing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...

My wife and I are FTBs, both 33 and on above national average salaries (though nothing spectacular). Looking to buy a 3 bed semi in Midlands for c£200,000 (would have been £80,000 ten years ago) within the next few years. We have a 10% deposit and adding to it by over £1k every month. Aiming for a 15% or 20% deposit ahead of purchasing - depending on local prices / mortgage availability closer to the time.

...

So you're both 33 and both earn above national average salaries, yet you've only managed so put £20k aside? £10k each?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So you're both 33 and both earn above national average salaries, yet you've only managed so put £20k aside? £10k each?

Degrees don't come cheap (all 3 fully repaid plus interest), we haven't always earned above average salaries (only during last 3 years) and there is no MoMaD on either side and never has been.

Things take time and cost money when you have to do it all by yourself. Apparently hard work pays off eventually but I'm beginning to have my doubts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

all is right with the World.

I should now get on with my life and take out a huge mortgage...that would make me happy.

Went to a mates house...hard to park there...went in living room and wondered where the rest of the house was....that was just about it.

still, he is happy he "Owns" his own place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

all is right with the World.

I should now get on with my life and take out a huge mortgage...that would make me happy.

Went to a mates house...hard to park there...went in living room and wondered where the rest of the house was....that was just about it.

still, he is happy he "Owns" his own place.

Where has anyone on this thread even implied that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Point is this: we have been, we are being and we will be screwed.

Who is not getting screwed at the moment....a few highly paid bankers and civil servants on expenses....

We are all getting screwed one way or another and highly indebted homeowners with liar loans are getting screwed more than most. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utopia (lower house prices) always seems to be just a few months away on HPC.

Every month is a month closer though..

No IR rise for the foreseeable future

= Inflation = less disposable income

Vendors with little reason to drop prices

Until their disposable income is eroded to such an extent they are forced to sell (see above)

No wage growth to make houses falling in real terms any more affordable

Also makes it more difficult to service a mortgage

Rising rents seemingly making cheap mortgages look like a better option

For those with a min 20/25% deposit - the question is how many of these are there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At the risk of accusations of vanity for resurrecting my own thread, I was surprised that there was no bearish reaction to this (admittedly stream-of-consciousness) capitulation. Are the uber-bears down in the woods on holiday, or are they furtively house-hunting?

To my moderately-informed mind, Bernanke's announcement that interest rates are to stay where they are effectively indefinitely confirms that it is different this time, the rules can be ripped up and re-written at will and it's a decade of grind ahead.

I was expecting, perhaps even hoping, for a pasting for what I had written, there are many posters here whose opinion I respect and admire, albeit generally from a distance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Degrees don't come cheap (all 3 fully repaid plus interest), we haven't always earned above average salaries (only during last 3 years) and there is no MoMaD on either side and never has been.

Things take time and cost money when you have to do it all by yourself. Apparently hard work pays off eventually but I'm beginning to have my doubts.

Just think - with insecure jobs being made even more insecure (your working life is over at 50 nowadays as far as agencies are concerned) leaves you with 17yrs to pay off mortgage and huge luck keeping jobs to pay off the debt slavery to the bankers!

Owning a house would just put insurmountable pressure on you in this PC nuthouse era we are in - enjoy your younger years while you can.

There are 800,000 out there under the threat of imminent repo and in negative equity, millions of deluded 'renters' on never never I/O loans (with falling wages year by year!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Utopia (lower house prices) always seems to be just a few months away on HPC.

How true is that looking ahead?

  • Unresolved Euro Debt Crisis
  • Impact of riots on foreigners currently buying places in London (which masks falls elsewhere in the Halliwide indices)
  • Qualification for SMI is at present due to end this year
  • Inflation re fuel bills pushing overextended (and non-extended!) households closer to the brink
  • Supply to the housing market hitting record levels after four years' pent-up supply
  • EAs desperate for transactions putting the pressure on vendors (with Rightmove chipping in too)
  • Demand from potential house buyers still dropping off
  • Retrictions to Housing Benefit
  • The mythical spending cuts kicking in
  • Above all, in my opinion, an end to the 'buy a house before it's too late' sentiment

On the other hand

  • No IR rise for the foreseeable future
  • Vendors with little reason to drop prices
  • No wage growth to make houses falling in real terms any more affordable
  • Rising rents seemingly making cheap mortgages look like a better option

I'm sure I've missed some off the list!

I think you pretty much covered it. All you're missing from the second list is sterling. That and the entrenched sado-masochistic greed of British culture.

At the risk of accusations of vanity for resurrecting my own thread, I was surprised that there was no bearish reaction to this (admittedly stream-of-consciousness) capitulation. Are the uber-bears down in the woods on holiday, or are they furtively house-hunting?

To my moderately-informed mind, Bernanke's announcement that interest rates are to stay where they are effectively indefinitely confirms that it is different this time, the rules can be ripped up and re-written at will and it's a decade of grind ahead.

I was expecting, perhaps even hoping, for a pasting for what I had written, there are many posters here whose opinion I respect and admire, albeit generally from a distance.

I'm not surprised you didn't get flamed, it was a great post! I empathise entirely. I too am in capitulation mode, but not in the classical market sense. I mean, we're not being forced to cover short positions or getting sucked into a buying panic. It's more an acknowledgement that the market itself is irrevocably broken, at least on a meaningful timescale. Unless something truly spectacular happens in the next three or four years, any hpc will be too late for Mrs Q's biological clock.

As such, I've resigned myself to the fact that our long-term future lies away from the UK. And to be honest, it's not that bad. Renting has never felt so good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At the risk of accusations of vanity for resurrecting my own thread, I was surprised that there was no bearish reaction to this (admittedly stream-of-consciousness) capitulation. Are the uber-bears down in the woods on holiday, or are they furtively house-hunting?

To my moderately-informed mind, Bernanke's announcement that interest rates are to stay where they are effectively indefinitely confirms that it is different this time, the rules can be ripped up and re-written at will and it's a decade of grind ahead.

I was expecting, perhaps even hoping, for a pasting for what I had written, there are many posters here whose opinion I respect and admire, albeit generally from a distance.

How can bears react when indices sometimes edge upwards?

The whole thing is a joke. Governments the world over are having to cut back on their spending. Reckless lending has gone and isn't returning. The housing market here won't become functional until FTB's can afford houses again. Prices will have to come down. Yet prices stagnate because of ZIRP and government borrowing running at 156 billion a year, some of which goes to landlords to supply what looks like cheap shitty accomodation, at eye watering prices.

I look at all the economic data, and it's frickin obvious that HPI can't go back to 15 - 25 percent a year again. Though there are some out there that think it will.

I still can't believe we can sell our gilts so low when our deficit is so high.

I see one of two things happening. They hold interest rates where they are and we have long, slow mainly real terms house price deflation, but some nominal falls as well, or they can't hold rates where they are, and then the SHTF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just think - with insecure jobs being made even more insecure (your working life is over at 50 nowadays as far as agencies are concerned) leaves you with 17yrs to pay off mortgage and huge luck keeping jobs to pay off the debt slavery to the bankers!

Owning a house would just put insurmountable pressure on you in this PC nuthouse era we are in - enjoy your younger years while you can.

There are 800,000 out there under the threat of imminent repo and in negative equity, millions of deluded 'renters' on never never I/O loans (with falling wages year by year!)

Blimey. Not only did I actually understand your posting, erranta, but I agree with it also. I'm going to have to go for a lie down.

;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I look at all the economic data, and it's frickin obvious that HPI can't go back to 15 - 25 percent a year again. Though there are some many out there that think it will.

That's my experience talking to colleagues and debating with posters on EA Today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still can't believe we can sell our gilts so low when our deficit is so high.

I see one of two things happening. They hold interest rates where they are and we have long, slow mainly real terms house price deflation, but some nominal falls as well, or they can't hold rates where they are, and then the SHTF.

it is simply because the money'd baby boomer property owners keep their spare cash in conservative investments which one way or another are invested in gilts

so interest rates CAN stay low(ish), the value of money held in gilts will fall in real terms, as will the property wealth of the same people

for what its worth, this means that house prices will correct slowly and in real terms, and a similar amount of boomer wealth will evaporate from their cash holdings

we simpyl have to accept we may not buy houses during our entire lifetimes, and be better off for it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's my experience talking to colleagues and debating with posters on EA Today.

the Alvin Hall broadcast today stated matter of factly that house prices will eventually resume their trend of doubling every 10 to 15 years

even long term stats refute this - in the UK house prices have gone up 1% above inflation over the long term, outside booms, UK and international data suggest they go up 0% per year on top of inflation; there simply is not the objective evidence to suggest they go up against inflation, much, in the long run, and yet it is accepted as popular fact; the reversion to the mean is going to take a very long time; we will know the bottom when people stop trotting out the mantra of house prices going up 10% per year, I still feel thsi may be 20+ years away after a mini boom bust cycle in the interim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can bears react when indices sometimes edge upwards?

The whole thing is a joke. Governments the world over are having to cut back on their spending. Reckless lending has gone and isn't returning. The housing market here won't become functional until FTB's can afford houses again. Prices will have to come down. Yet prices stagnate because of ZIRP and government borrowing running at 156 billion a year, some of which goes to landlords to supply what looks like cheap shitty accomodation, at eye watering prices.

I look at all the economic data, and it's frickin obvious that HPI can't go back to 15 - 25 percent a year again. Though there are some out there that think it will.

I still can't believe we can sell our gilts so low when our deficit is so high.

I see one of two things happening. They hold interest rates where they are and we have long, slow mainly real terms house price deflation, but some nominal falls as well, or they can't hold rates where they are, and then the SHTF.

This is what I was driving at. Bernanke says that it's ZIRP for two years - isn't that just -re-writing the so-called "market" rules that many on here insist must ultimately be obeyed? He might be a big bully, but is there anyone in the playground hard enough to duff him up and make him say sorry, he was wrong? If not, option one it is - which means buying a house as a home, rather than a dead-cert money-spinning investment, makes perfect sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is what I was driving at. Bernanke says that it's ZIRP for two years - isn't that just -re-writing the so-called "market" rules that many on here insist must ultimately be obeyed? He might be a big bully, but is there anyone in the playground hard enough to duff him up and make him say sorry, he was wrong? If not, option one it is - which means buying a house as a home, rather than a dead-cert money-spinning investment, makes perfect sense.

sounds like the last ditch desperate rationalisation of an over indebted mortgage slave to me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.