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Guest KingCharles1st

Lets Forget Percentages-can We Predict Timing?

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36 months+

More to the point from my point of view (since I only see the price as relative to the cost of the money - ie I would rather pay a 380 a week mortgage on 70K than a 600 a month morgage on 50K - since its about having a place to live at a reasonable cost and in about 5 years it won't make a swot of difference), can we expect a drop BEFORE interest rates rocket and I can lock in a mortgage?

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How long is a piece of string?????????

could be 3 years,could be sooner.

depends on sentiment,and jobless!...the two feed off one another anyway!

....soft landing is not an option,however!

...never has,never will......

it's just a matter of how fast opinions change.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
12 months to the bottom- 18 months...?

A long haul this time five years plus IMHO.

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Guest
....soft landing is not an option,however!

What the hell is a soft landing?

Seriously. They all say we're gonna have one, but never define the term 'soft landing'.

A long haul this time five years plus IMHO.

Unless the recession gets in the way to speed things up?

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cliche but " the bust mirrors the boom" I think we're in for a long period of decline with a few bumps along the way.

I've got a fat deposit which I'm itching to spend but go to bed resigned that I'm going to wait 2-3 years more.

Not until prices are 3.5-5 average earning will I buy - when ever that is

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the lack of liquidity of housing compared to shares means falls aren't immediately obvious except with auctioned property so the crash will take 5 years.....

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If inflation goes from 23% to 2.7% in just over a year and with things getting worse by the month, surely prices at the minimum will fall at the above pace?

With this in mind, I see it being two years.

Could someone counter my point? Five years as suggested by Charlie seems excessive to me :blink:

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In SE I think 18-24 months from this winter would account for 70% of the likely falls - the rest (and real bottom) would take another 2-3 yrs. I would be prepared to get the chequebook out in Jan/Feb 2007 I think on the basis I that I am not trying to call the bottom (impossible) but buy at trend prices. When I see the right house at 3.5 x my salary I would buy (but offer at a discount!).

Edited by Tempest

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Panic is only just beginning to set in. As for the bottom, I predict:

2005 - 10% drop - the rot begins

2006 - one hell of a ride with 20-25% losses...confidence falls of a cliff

2007 - a further 20% with biggest losses early on

2008 - a further 5%..masses still wary... consolidation around May.

So summer 2008 (31-32 months from now) is my guesstimate. Impatient for an immediate fall, but have the sense to realise this won't happen overnight and until then will sit on my hands.

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Can we refer to past history on this? How long has it taken to reach the bottom in previous downturns?

I think I remember from postings somewhere else on this site it was about three-four years between the top in 88/89 and the bottom in 92 or so. Can anyone out there give some more info on this?

Also:

Key point 1: once they reach the bottom, they don't just bounce back. They flounder for five years or so before they start to rise again.

Key point 2: this time may be different (someone has to say it!), because this time houses are seen more as a normal asset class (eg, like shares) than before, meaning money is more likely to move in and out quickly.

Key point 3: the scale of this boom is bigger than before, meaning the whole process, from boom to bust and back again, could take much longer.

Points 2 and 3 might cancel each other out.

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4 yrs to the bottom > overshoot

40% drop + the overshoot.

3yrs or LESS with Oil instability!

50% drop or MORE if above!

We are also coming into an era (2006-2009) with an extremely dangerous dip in the Sun's Activity Cycle!

The last time this happened it help 'spark off' the First World War!

If you gormless gits on HPC (who cant think past your next meal) think this doesn't affect human behaviour - just remember how the moon affects Werewolves! ;)

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I am expecting the bulk of the falls over a period of around 2 years from whenever the "proper" falls start. That is, when the price starts clearly trending down rather than up a bit, down a bit but going nowhere overall. The proper falls do seem to be underway now.

After that I expect a reasonably long "tail" of ongoing small falls until around 2008/09. So that would be the absolute bottom but if you're just looking for an affordable house to live in and aren't obsessed with buying right at the bottom then sometime in 2007 prices are likely to be reasonable (but not at the bottom) IMO.

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Personally I don't care where the bottom of the market is. I'll buy when I think the cost to me represents what I consider to be reasonable value.

Any further falls will be insignificant as I'll have a property I want to live in at an affordable price.

If it never happens, well I'll carry on renting I guess.

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In SE I think 18-24 months from this winter would account for 70% of the likely falls - the rest (and real bottom) would take another 2-3 yrs. I would be prepared to get the chequebook out in Jan/Feb 2007 I think on the basis I that I am not trying to call the bottom (impossible) but buy at trend prices. When I see the right house at 3.5 x my salary I would buy (but offer at a discount!).

I agree.

I think a majority of the falls will come by the beginning of 2007, with the bottom being a couple of years later.

The effects of higher actual inflation, increased indebtedness and the prospect of recession (whether it appears or not) will now start to show its effects on levels of confidence and all markets are driven by greed and fear.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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