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interestrateripoff

Who Made A Billion Dollars On 10/1 Bet That U.s. Credit Rating Would Be Downgraded?

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023809/Did-George-Soros-win-10-1-return-S-Ps-US-credit-rating-downgrade.html

A mystery investor or hedge fund reportedly made a bet of almost $1billion at odds of 10/1 last month that the U.S. would lose its AAA credit rating.

Now questions are being asked of whether the trader had inside information before placing the $850million bet in the futures market.

There are mounting rumours that investor George Soros, 80, famously known as ‘the man who broke the Bank of England’, could be involved.

Clearly it's a conspiracy.... I mean no one could see this coming....

Edit:

Although headline and story don't seem to add up if they bet $850m at 10/1 they are going to make a lot more than a billion.

Edited by interestrateripoff

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Although headline and story don't seem to add up if they bet $850m at 10/1 they are going to make a lot more than a billion.

No, it's accurate, in the UK we treat a billion as having 9 zeroes. In America, they consider a billion to have 12 zeroes.

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surely whoever made that bet that bond prices would fall due to the downgrade got it wrong and is getting burnt.

bond prices are going through the roof at the moment, everyone is flying out of equities and into the safe haven of bonds.

they dont care about the perceived extra risk of the US debt reflected by the downgrade, equities are even riskier, and there is only one place to park your money which is bonds.

Edited by mfp123

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surely whoever made that bet that bond prices would fall due to the downgrade got it wrong and is getting burnt.

Depends what the bet was ...

It's widely known that certain fund managers are (or have recently been) short US govt bonds. But that wouldn't make a 10:1 bet: bonds don't move much, and a short is a bet with a ballpark 1% payback if you get it exactly right. For example this fund shows a big short of 44% on "international bonds" (June 30 - last published figure, no doubt thoroughly out-of-date), which means a bet of over £400million. Though not all of that will be on US bonds - there's plenty in Europe to keep the 'merkins company.

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023809/Did-George-Soros-win-10-1-return-S-Ps-US-credit-rating-downgrade.html

Clearly it's a conspiracy.... I mean no one could see this coming....

Edit:

Although headline and story don't seem to add up if they bet $850m at 10/1 they are going to make a lot more than a billion.

...insider dealing....needs investigation.... :rolleyes:

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No, it's accurate, in the UK we treat a billion as having 9 zeroes. In America, they consider a billion to have 12 zeroes.

I think not. In the US, billion has referred to 10^9 for a very long time. When I was a boy, a British billion was 10^12; however, in recent years, British usage has fallen into line with US usage and now a billion is 10^9 the world over. (Either way, it's probably less than the damage to the UK infrastructure because of the unpleasantness currently occurring.)

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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