Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Frank8

What Happens If Germany Says Enough?

Recommended Posts

Italian tax evaders have plied the Milan-Lugano route since god was a pup.

I suspect the increased police checks are more to do with trying to stop would be evaders ahead of planned tax increases, than a flight to safety.

Electronic bank transfers take little more than a mouseclick these days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldnt worry about German opnion, the G7, which includes the UK I beleive, have committed to step in if need be.

If I vos ein Deutchlander, Id wery seriuzly conzider NOT helping owt...Let zose Britz do it vis zere printeez printeez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldnt worry about German opnion, the G7, which includes the UK I beleive, have committed to step in if need be.

If I vos ein Deutchlander, Id wery seriuzly conzider NOT helping owt...Let zose Britz do it vis zere printeez printeez.

What Germany needs is a housing boom.

If they'd have done that in the first place none of this would have happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What Germany needs is a housing boom.

If they'd have done that in the first place none of this would have happened.

yah, zay zent us Gordon von Brau, ze ruler zavier of de walt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Germans are doing extremely well out of all this. Who's buying all their BMWs? It's not just China. They also can bring in cheap workers to fill their skills gap and so avoid wage inflation (sorry, they're not interested in the Brits for some reason, just that we buy their products). Plus they've made sure neighbouring countries can't devalue and thus undercut on price.

German exports

Primary exports partners: France (10.2 percent of total exports), US (6.7 percent), Netherlands (6.7 percent), UK (6.6 percent), Italy (6.3 percent), Austria (6 percent), China (4.5 percent).
Edited by Trampa501

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Germans are doing extremely well out of all this. Who's buying all their BMWs? It's not just China. They also can bring in cheap workers to fill their skills gap and so avoid wage inflation (sorry, they're not interested in the Brits for some reason, just that we buy their products). Plus they've made sure neighbouring countries can't devalue and thus undercut on price.

German exports

i bet you would see a similar list for ALL exporting countries...just what are you suggesting?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Italy and Spain are insolvent. Italy is the most obvious due to the massive public debt burden, Spain has hidden it's problems but once the property market reaches bottom it will also restructure, the losses will mirror those in Ireland scaled for size.

There are not really any options here. It will never fly politically in Germany or France to transfer 30%+ of GDP to support southern Europe and keep the euro together. Even if it was attempted it could not be sustained.

This leaves ECB printing ( Which is also impossible with Germany in the zone)

The only solution is for Germany etc, and probably France to bring back there own currencies cut the south loose with the Euro which will then crash, enabling the south to recover.

The only real question is how long it takes to get to this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Italy and Spain are insolvent. Italy is the most obvious due to the massive public debt burden, Spain has hidden it's problems but once the property market reaches bottom it will also restructure, the losses will mirror those in Ireland scaled for size.

There are not really any options here.

I know it's an anathema to most of the posters on here, but isn't one option to have the scummy public sector parasites scrounge less and hand out less to the undeserving?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know it's an anathema to most of the posters on here, but isn't one option to have the scummy public sector parasites scrounge less and hand out less to the undeserving?

It's an option in the countries that are still solvent, doubt it would save those that aren't though. Having said that, the dynamics are tricky. Let's suppose the UK, tomorrow, chopped 25% of the public sector wage bill and 25% of the benefits bill. It's clear that there will be then less money to be spent in the real economy as a result of that (assuming the savings go straight into reducing the deficit), meaning that less taxes will be collected, meaning that the deficit will go up a bit (relative to the savings that is). In time, things will recover, people will find real productive jobs to do and we'll be in a better place than before. The problem is, how quickly can you cut without tipping the country over the edge? Too fast and you risk losing more in taxation than you save in benefits & public sector wages. Too slow and you never cut the deficit at all and end up paying more for your borrowing which, in turn, increases the deficit over time. It's a tricky problem for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What Germany needs is a housing boom.

If they'd have done that in the first place none of this would have happened.

The Germans just don't get finance and how to create wealth. They seem to want to mess about making things. God that's the lazy slow way of making money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is always the nuclear option

The UK is now classed as a safe haven. We could rush to the aid of the Euro and join it. Bolstering them up with all our.... err... assets.

Put Gordon Brown in charge of Brussels and Mervyn King in charge of the ECB

Happy days.....?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is always the nuclear option

The UK is now classed as a safe haven. We could rush to the aid of the Euro and join it. Bolstering them up with all our.... err... assets.

Put Gordon Brown in charge of Brussels and Mervyn King in charge of the ECB

Happy days.....?

Ah, the old "if I'm going down, I'm taking every other bugger with me" ploy.

I suppose it has its merits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is always the nuclear option

The UK is now classed as a safe haven. We could rush to the aid of the Euro and join it. Bolstering them up with all our.... err... assets.

Put Gordon Brown in charge of Brussels and Mervyn King in charge of the ECB

Happy days.....?

It would have entertainment value I guess...just let me get the last of my money out of GBP first please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Germans just don't get finance and how to create wealth. They seem to want to mess about making things. God that's the lazy slow way of making money.

Au contraire, they lent all their money to the Irish, Spanish, Greeks, etc etc for a quick buck errr euro and look what happened. They'll end up with nobody left to sell their BMWs to.

Nope, housing boom is def the way for them to go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only solution is for Germany etc, and probably France to bring back there own currencies cut the south loose with the Euro which will then crash, enabling the south to recover.

The only real question is how long it takes to get to this point.

Except that the EU doesn't see it that way. It believes the solution is in Eurobonds, with all Euro states effectively losing fiscal sovereignty to the centre. It is already happening to an extent, with bailout terms and targets being set externally.

I suspect this will now be pushed strongly.

Germany and German public opinion is opposed to the idea and I suppose secession from the Eurozone is an option, if all the others go along. I don't see it as such a bad move. Poland has been a big winner from neither adopting the Euro nor a currency peg.

The threat to exports argument is weak, I believe. Germany sells on quality, and its goods were always expensive during the Deutschmark era.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.