Sharp Fall In Number Of First-Time Buyers

[MrFlibble]

Who'd have thought it? Given the current job market, financial meltdown and social unrest across the world I'm surprised anyone is buying TBH

[Pent Up]

Wasn't July 2009 near the bottom? So we are worse than it was at the depth of the previous dip. Expect prices to be below that again soon.

[Lepista]

Nothing to worry about - BTL will save the housing market.

[Democorruptcy]

They are waiting for the schemes to roll out where our council tax will be used to fund them a 25% deposit?

[exiges]

Don't worry, the equity rich are still buying and keeping prices inflated.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Don't worry, the equity rich are still buying and keeping prices inflated.

Don't worry, the equity rich stupid are still buying and keeping prices inflate

[nickincash]

Don't worry, the equity rich are still buying and keeping prices inflated.

Not all of them!

[libspero]

Not all enough of them!

[Vagabond]

Nothing to worry about - BTL will save the housing market.

Tongue-in-cheek I guess but seems to be true enough so far.

The only thing I can see crashing the market are rising interest rates or massive job losses. Can't see either happening in the near future sadly.

[ccc]

So Sunny Scotland is indeed different afterall..

The change in general sentiment up here is nothing short of spectacular. Taking its time to have an impact on prices though. Although even in 'House prices will never go down here' Edinburgh - FTB prices are down about 25% from peak. In nominal terms as well.

Just waiting for the rest to catch up.

[Si1]

Tongue-in-cheek I guess but seems to be true enough so far.

The only thing I can see crashing the market are rising interest rates or massive job losses. Can't see either happening in the near future sadly.

yadda yadda

[Pent Up]

Tongue-in-cheek I guess but seems to be true enough so far.

The only thing I can see crashing the market are rising interest rates or massive job losses. Can't see either happening in the near future sadly.

I'm not seeing it. BTL isn't taking up the slack. FTB properties just don't sell. the ones that do go for low prices. The rest just sit there. We need to up the repos.

[Vagabond]

yadda yadda

Indeed.

I'm not seeing it. BTL isn't taking up the slack. FTB properties just don't sell. the ones that do go for low prices. The rest just sit there. We need to up the repos.

Agreed. Can't see any other way though apart from rate rises and job losses. Neither of which have happened yet and neither of which look set to happen in the near future.

Its a standoff at the minute.

[ccc]

I'm not seeing it. BTL isn't taking up the slack. FTB properties just don't sell. the ones that do go for low prices. The rest just sit there. We need to up the repos.

Yep. I heard all this bravado from the BTL/investor brigade about Edinburgh when I was saying classic FTB flats would drop from 125-130k to well under 100k. I was told quite categorically, by these people supposedely in the know, that anything under 100k would be snapped up by savvy investors within hours.

Yet today ? There are loads of them sitting anywhere between 80k to 100k. And barely a whimper. Seom been sitting there for 6-12 months. Savvy investors ? Nowhere to be seen....

[Pent Up]

Yep. I heard all this bravado from the BTL/investor brigade about Edinburgh when I was saying classic FTB flats would drop from 125-130k to well under 100k. I was told quite categorically, by these people supposedely in the know, that anything under 100k would be snapped up by savvy investors within hours.

Yet today ? There are loads of them sitting anywhere between 80k to 100k. And barely a whimper. Seom been sitting there for 6-12 months. Savvy investors ? Nowhere to be seen....

The other thing I've noticed is that low BTL are not getting let. Unlike 3 bed family homes where demand is very high and supply short. Te traditional BTL 1 or 2 bed flat is just sitting there with no takers.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

The other thing I've noticed is that low BTL are not getting let. Unlike 3 bed family homes where demand is very high and supply short. Te traditional BTL 1 or 2 bed flat is just sitting there with no takers.

i am seeing this too, glad others are

[ccc]

The other thing I've noticed is that low BTL are not getting let. Unlike 3 bed family homes where demand is very high and supply short. Te traditional BTL 1 or 2 bed flat is just sitting there with no takers.

Yep very true. Mum looking for such a nice family place just now. Not much around. However plenty of bog standard BTL fodder.

[Jie Bie]

As ccc says, it looks like sentiment is finally changing north of the border: Scottish FTB numbers fall

I found this statistic from the report particularly interesting:

Over the past decade, first-time buyer property prices in Scotland have risen by 108% from £50,519 in 2001 to £105,070.

Annualising that rise in the average FTB price works out at an increase of 7.5% every year, for the last ten years. I wonder how wages for FTBs in Scotland have performed in comparison...

Edited August 8, 2011 by Jie Bie

[Goat]

Surprised with the London figure. Would have expected t to be the lowest. Unless they're simply first time buyers in the uk?

I guess London's housing stock lends itself more to FTB's than other areas - second time buyers are more likely to move out to surrounding areas than trade up within the capital.

Must be a lot of people with accounts at BOMAD or earning £££Mega.

[RufflesTheGuineaPig]

The only thing I can see crashing the market are rising interest rates or massive job losses. Can't see either happening in the near future sadly.

Local housing allowance changes are taking away the prop that made BTL viable.

I'm not seeing it. BTL isn't taking up the slack. FTB properties just don't sell. the ones that do go for low prices. The rest just sit there. We need to up the repos.

BTL requires banks willing to lend on BTL mortgages at high multiples... which isn't happening now.

The other thing I've noticed is that low BTL are not getting let. Unlike 3 bed family homes where demand is very high and supply short. Te traditional BTL 1 or 2 bed flat is just sitting there with no takers.

I've said this before and I'll remind you again. As money gets tight, the first thing people do is look to take in a lodger. Be that a friend, family member, kids moving back with parents, or even a random stranger. When you're short of cash renting one of your spare rooms out will bring in £300 a month... and thanks to people being told during the boom to spend as much as they can to buy as big a house as possibly as it would rise in value more, almost EVERYONE has a spare room, usually a double, often en-suite.

The lodgers market rips the guts out of the bottom end of the BTL market... why pay £450pcm plus bills when you can pay £300 all in?

[NEO72]

I'm not seeing it. BTL isn't taking up the slack. FTB properties just don't sell. the ones that do go for low prices. The rest just sit there. We need to up the repos.

There are still twice as many new FTB mortgages as BTL even considering this is an - ahem - ideal buying opportunity for "savvy investors" so you're right, its not taking up the slack.

Besides, as more do pile in, won't that increase rental supply which will push rents down which in turn will push yields down which will put off all but the most stupid 'investor'?

[Vagabond]

Local housing allowance changes are taking away the prop that made BTL viable.

BTL requires banks willing to lend on BTL mortgages at high multiples... which isn't happening now.

I've said this before and I'll remind you again. As money gets tight, the first thing people do is look to take in a lodger. Be that a friend, family member, kids moving back with parents, or even a random stranger. When you're short of cash renting one of your spare rooms out will bring in £300 a month... and thanks to people being told during the boom to spend as much as they can to buy as big a house as possibly as it would rise in value more, almost EVERYONE has a spare room, usually a double, often en-suite.

The lodgers market rips the guts out of the bottom end of the BTL market... why pay £450pcm plus bills when you can pay £300 all in?

One of the things that makes BTL viable is the image of high property prices continuing. Most people in BTL don't appear to be in it for the money they can make from rentals, the yields don't add up. This would suggest that people still think they won't lose with property in the long term. If they did, we wouldn't have such a stalemate now because they would be getting out of property and selling.

In fact, this applies nicely to all sellers. The fact that people won't sell is, in itself a great indication of how people think. If they really thought prices would crash, they would be taking what they can get now.

To get some really juicy drops we need sentiment to be on our side. I just struggle to see where its going to come from at the minute.

[NEO72]

One of the things that makes BTL viable is the image of high property prices continuing. Most people in BTL don't appear to be in it for the money they can make from rentals, the yields don't add up. This would suggest that people still think they won't lose with property in the long term. If they did, we wouldn't have such a stalemate now because they would be getting out of property and selling.

In fact, this applies nicely to all sellers. The fact that people won't sell is, in itself a great indication of how people think. If they really thought prices would crash, they would be taking what they can get now.

To get some really juicy drops we need sentiment to be on our side. I just struggle to see where its going to come from at the minute.

I agree completely, sentiment is key. However the mob are fickle and sentiment can turn on a dime. Take summer 2008 for example - suddenly we start getting 2%+ drops each months - where did that come from? Of course as then, a major financial crisis may help in that respect..

[nmarks]

Sharp rise in number of first-time sellers too hopefully.

[Fishbone Glover]

To get some really juicy drops we need sentiment to be on our side. I just struggle to see where its going to come from at the minute.

Sentiment is definitely turning, there's been a noticeable increase in the number of comments on the newspaper websites supporting lower prices, and bemoaning the ridiculous situation we currently find ourselves in. I don't think all of those could be attributed to members of hpc, so the support for better value housing is definitely growing slowly.

The housing market isn't a nimble speedboat, that's going to turn on a sixpence, it's a big lumbering oil tanker which will change direction eventually, it'll just take a while to do it.