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interestrateripoff

Europe's Money Markets Freeze As Crisis Escalates In Italy And Spain

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8677989/Europes-money-markets-freeze-as-crisis-escalates-in-Italy-and-Spain.html

The three-month euribor/OIS spread, the fear gauge of credit markets, reached the highest level in two years today, jumping 7 basis points to 40 in wild trading.

"Europe's money markets are undoubtedly starting to freeze up," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securites.

"It's not as dramatic as pre-Lehman but it is alarming and shows the pervasive degree of fear in the markets. People are again refusing to lend except on a secured basis."

The credit stress was triggered by fresh mayhem in the southern European bond markets and ominously in parts of the eurozone's soft core as well, including Belgium. Spanish yields pushed further into the danger zone to 6.42pc. Italian debt reached a post-EMU high of 6.22pc before falling back slightly on reports of Chinese buying.

"We have a revolt taking place by foreign investors in these bond markets," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at Morgan Stanley. "There have been hardly any purchases for several months. We are seeing net disinvestment because people fear that these countries lack the potential to grow their way out of the problem, and risk falling into a Fisherite debt trap."

Out of interest can you place a bet anywhere that this will blow up Sept/Oct where these things always appear to come to a head?

These countries can't grow themselves out of a bubble.

Edited by interestrateripoff

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Out of interest can you place a bet anywhere that this will blow up Sept/Oct where these things always appear to come to a head?

Yes. On 1st September, set up a short position on the stock market or PIGS bond market. On 31st October, buy that position back.

According to your prediction, you should make a large profit.

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I like the way the pressure gets applied in August. :lol:

Indeed. Time to feed the markets some freshly printed cash.

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Yes. On 1st September, set up a short position on the stock market or PIGS bond market. On 31st October, buy that position back.

According to your prediction, you should make a large profit.

Or just buy as much silver as you can right now.

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excuse, me but isnt the frequency of bailouts soon to become exponential?

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8677989/Europes-money-markets-freeze-as-crisis-escalates-in-Italy-and-Spain.html

Out of interest can you place a bet anywhere that this will blow up Sept/Oct where these things always appear to come to a head?

These countries can't grow themselves out of a bubble.

September and October is statistically the most likely time for a major crash now that the summer hols are here. Just time to pop a little more onto sovereign credit cards.

There is no way the ECB can field extra lending to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium on top of the Greek fiasco. It's all no more than a papered over default by the lot of them. Time we admitted it and got it over with. Painful but less so than making the patients even more ill with further finacial 'medicine'.

Quite likely that the UK's bond rates will start to rise aswell, even though the govt like to claim their cuts programme will put it all righ and we'll grow out of the debt problem. That is even more doubtful if half the Eurozone goes into crisis - less export opportunities for us and the pound will probably appreciate against the Euro for a while too making it even harder.

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FTSE has been down all day pigs have been rising strongly for some reason.

Spain +1.77%

Italy + 1.14%

Portugal +0.22%

maybe this has something to do with it:......http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=191289

akcs-www.png

It takes an insane amount of firepower to do that. The European markets dove on the open, and almost immediately there was some sort of "official" response. Maybe the Swiss National Bank, maybe someone else, but whoever it was, they had a hell of a lot of cash to throw in to move things like that.

The response was immediate. Euro up, dollar down, Swissy down huge, and big reversals almost-immediately everywhere, including in the US futures. We went from down a couple to up 8 in less than 30 minutes, and the Dow futures are now up 56.

It doesn't look like it's over either.

It would appear that the oversold conditions proved ripe for someone with an axe to grind (or a few banks to protect) to come into the market and play. These sorts of interventions never work in the long term, but they do catch people who get too giddy at the prospect of big money from shorting a declining market offsides and hurt them, sometimes very badly. This is especially true if you're a cash or options-market player and can't hedge in the futures as your stops are worthless off-hours.

I have no idea if this will hold up into the US opening bell, given that we have a bunch of data coming in a few hours. What I do know is that this is the first time my "volatility alarm" has woken me up in the middle of the night since 2009, and this one's to the upside.

If you were wondering if various "big boys" were taking the situation in Italy seriously, you have your answer.

They are.

Thus, you should be too.

post-10213-0-92923600-1312369523_thumb.png

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maybe this has something to do with it:......http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=191289

akcs-www.png

It takes an insane amount of firepower to do that. The European markets dove on the open, and almost immediately there was some sort of "official" response. Maybe the Swiss National Bank, maybe someone else, but whoever it was, they had a hell of a lot of cash to throw in to move things like that.

The response was immediate. Euro up, dollar down, Swissy down huge, and big reversals almost-immediately everywhere, including in the US futures. We went from down a couple to up 8 in less than 30 minutes, and the Dow futures are now up 56.

It doesn't look like it's over either.

It would appear that the oversold conditions proved ripe for someone with an axe to grind (or a few banks to protect) to come into the market and play. These sorts of interventions never work in the long term, but they do catch people who get too giddy at the prospect of big money from shorting a declining market offsides and hurt them, sometimes very badly. This is especially true if you're a cash or options-market player and can't hedge in the futures as your stops are worthless off-hours.

I have no idea if this will hold up into the US opening bell, given that we have a bunch of data coming in a few hours. What I do know is that this is the first time my "volatility alarm" has woken me up in the middle of the night since 2009, and this one's to the upside.

If you were wondering if various "big boys" were taking the situation in Italy seriously, you have your answer.

They are.

Thus, you should be too.

SNB is making plenty of noise. The CHF is killing the domestic economy.

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Yes. On 1st September, set up a short position on the stock market or PIGS bond market. On 31st October, buy that position back.

According to your prediction, you should make a large profit.

Be careful

Owning large cap stocks in a true sovereign debt crisis may be the right thing to do. Greece may not be able to pay it's debts but Tesco can.

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SNB is making plenty of noise. The CHF is killing the domestic economy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/03/switzerland-franc-overvalued-intervention

Swiss authorities have moved to counteract what the national bank called the "massive overvaluation" of the Swiss franc.

The measures – a huge increase in the supply of Swiss francs and a pledge that interest rates will be pegged at or near 0% – came as investors flocked to buy francs as a safe haven from the turmoil affecting the eurozone and the world economy.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eu-issue-statement-situation-markets-afternoon

The European Commission will issue a statement on the “situation in the financial markets” later today, spokeswoman Karolina Kottova told reporters in Brussels. We, for one, can't wait to hear how the bureaucrats will convince the bond vigilantes that all is well. We really can't.

Debt is wealth?

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100099468/eurocrats-declare-crisis-over-pesky-markets-refuse-to-listen/

Daniel Hannan

On Saturday, the European President, Herman Van Rompuy wrote an unintentionally hilarious piece in The Guardian in which he chided the markets for not doing what they were told. “Astonishingly, since our summit the cost of borrowing has increased again for a number of euro area countries.”

Those pesky bond traders! Weren’t they listening? Eurocrats have officially declared the crisis to be over!

Spanish and Italian bond yields have now risen to a higher level than before the summit, and are close to the point which triggered the Irish, Greek and Portuguese bailouts. The graphs below show the price of, respectively, Italian and Spanish debt,

Perhaps that's because the markets don't believe you solve a debt crisis with more debt.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/30/debt-crisis-greece-eurozone?INTCMP=SRCH

Astonishingly, since our summit the cost of borrowing has increased again for a number of euro area countries. I say astonishingly, because all macro economic fundamentals point in the opposite direction. It cannot be stressed enough that Greece is in a unique situation, not comparable to that of the other eurozone countries. Italy will generate a primary surplus in 2011 and, with the additional austerity package just adopted will have a balanced budget in 2014. Spain has a low debt stock around 70%, below the EU and the euro area average, and has taken courageous measures to reduce its deficit and boost growth. In all these cases, the current market assessment of risks are totally out of line with the fundamentals and it is ludicrous that CDS-rankings put these countries in the top tier of default risk countries.

Reading all of this he really does sound deluded, if only he keeps saying it then it will become true.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/30/debt-crisis-greece-eurozone?INTCMP=SRCH

Reading all of this he really does sound deluded, if only he keeps saying it then it will become true.

Actually he's quoting facts, whereas you are just spouting opinion.

He could well be wrong, as he is being selective in his facts (as we all are). Attack him on the facts, and you'll gain respect.

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Actually he's quoting facts, whereas you are just spouting opinion.

He could well be wrong, as he is being selective in his facts (as we all are). Attack him on the facts, and you'll gain respect.

Economic growth has picked up in Europe and is on average 2.5% in western European states. Those countries currently in loan programmes will see a return to growth in 2012. As soon as consumers and businesses see that debt levels and deficits are going down, this will have an extra positive effect of boosting consumer confidence and corporate investments. A win-win situation.

A summary based on facts?

Has the Greek deficit over the past couple of years gone down? Or has it been constantly revised upwards?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13194344

Or what about Portugal?

http://www.businessandleadership.com/economy/item/29258-portugal-deficit-even-worse

Does he have a future prediction machine?

Where exactly are debt levels coming down? I seem to have missed the Greeks repaying the debt.

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Credit Crunch II - The revenge of reality

Too true, all this talk of recovery makes me laugh, no medicine has been taken but yet we are supposedly recovering, yeah riiiiight.

The sooner these turds get put through the fan the better, then maybe we can start afresh without being hobbled by propping up ponzi schemes.

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Actually he's quoting facts, whereas you are just spouting opinion.

He could well be wrong, as he is being selective in his facts (as we all are). Attack him on the facts, and you'll gain respect.

Government predictions do not equal facts. They clearly have a vested interest in making things sound better than they really are.

Governments across the Western world have been predicting a return to strong economic growth and a big rise in tax revenues for the last 4 years. It's not happening.

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SNB is making plenty of noise. The CHF is killing the domestic economy.

I guess that you could borrow from the SNB at zero and buy Italian gilts in the hope that they would pay? That might explain a few things.

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  • 334 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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