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Manufacturing Pmi Plummets

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From 51.4 to 49.1 below 50 is contracting.

News report to follow...

http://community.nas...x?storyid=88119

Operating conditions in the U.K. manufacturing sector deteriorated for the first time in two years during July. Output growth slowed closer to stagnation, as new orders declined at the fastest rate since May 2009.

The weaker performance of the sector impacted on the labor market, as manufacturers lowered employment for the first time in 16 months.

Commenting on the report, David Noble, chief executive officer at the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply, said, "Alarm bells are ringing or the U.K. manufacturing sector, which has seen conditions deteriorate rapidly since the start of the year."

More money printing, weak sterling and HPI please! :blink:

Edited by John Steed

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Index of production for manufacturing

100.5 in Q2 2007, 92.1 in Q2 2011.

Output index for business services & finance

105.0 in Q2 2007, 104.7 in Q2 2011.

Sterling devaluation via QE and low interest rates to rebalance the economy was just a lie. It was just to enable banks to steal from savers and corporations to steal from everybody.

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It's good to see our rebalancing of the economy is working and the justification of trashing the pound and keeping interest rates at stupidly low levels to support manufacturing is proving such a success......

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It's good to see our rebalancing of the economy is working and the justification of trashing the pound and keeping interest rates at stupidly low levels to support manufacturing is proving such a success......

Just think how bad it would be if they hadn't supported it. :ph34r:

Still the off shoring policy is working.

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27th July

For the first time in two years, optimism regarding the general business situation fell

among UK manufacturers, and expectations of slower activity are driving a reappraisal of

forward-looking business plans, the CBI said today.

Growth in total orders and production eased slightly in the three months to July and

manufacturers expect a further deceleration over the next quarter. As a result, after a

fourth successive increase in employment in this survey, they plan to cut headcount over

the next three months and have revised down their investment plans for the year ahead.

Responding to the July Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey, manufacturers reported that

they were less optimistic than three months ago (-16%), the first fall in sentiment since

July 2009.

28th July

The volume of sales on the high street in July was slightly lower than expected, compared

to a year earlier, as shoppers reined in spending in the face of rising food and petrol

prices, according to the CBI.

The CBI Distributive Trades Survey was conducted between 28 June and 19 July. It revealed

that 33% of retailers saw sales volumes rise on a year ago, while 38% reported a fall. The

resulting balance of -5% was the weakest since June 2010 (a balance of -5%) and disappointed

retailers’ expectations. It continued the weakness seen in the June survey (-2%).

Retailers expect sales volumes to fall at a faster rate next month (-12%).

1st August

Manufacturing activity in Britain unexpectedly contracted in July, marking the first monthly

decline in two years, according to the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index for the sector

released Monday. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from a revised 51.4 reading in June. Economists

had expected a reading of 50.9.

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Not good figures and I notice that the cry for more Quantitative Easing is already beginning. However last week I read this on the subject which was a good summary I thought.

[quoteIn response I am starting to hear more cries for a resumption of the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing programme. The problem I do not not hear them analysing is that we are where we are partly because of its past efforts in this area. It does not seem to have done much for economic growth but certainly contributed to inflation, is that what they want more of?

]

http://t.co/oItDVw6

I notice that all the promises of growth from more QE in the United States seem to have fallen short too...

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next is employment levels.It will be interesting to see what the government decides to do with austerity - if the slow down proofs not to be temporary

quote name='FreeTrader' timestamp='1312190482' post='3070977']

27th July

For the first time in two years, optimism regarding the general business situation fell

among UK manufacturers, and expectations of slower activity are driving a reappraisal of

forward-looking business plans, the CBI said today.

Growth in total orders and production eased slightly in the three months to July and

manufacturers expect a further deceleration over the next quarter. As a result, after a

fourth successive increase in employment in this survey, they plan to cut headcount over

the next three months and have revised down their investment plans for the year ahead.

Responding to the July Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey, manufacturers reported that

they were less optimistic than three months ago (-16%), the first fall in sentiment since

July 2009.

28th July

The volume of sales on the high street in July was slightly lower than expected, compared

to a year earlier, as shoppers reined in spending in the face of rising food and petrol

prices, according to the CBI.

The CBI Distributive Trades Survey was conducted between 28 June and 19 July. It revealed

that 33% of retailers saw sales volumes rise on a year ago, while 38% reported a fall. The

resulting balance of -5% was the weakest since June 2010 (a balance of -5%) and disappointed

retailers’ expectations. It continued the weakness seen in the June survey (-2%).

Retailers expect sales volumes to fall at a faster rate next month (-12%).

1st August

Manufacturing activity in Britain unexpectedly contracted in July, marking the first monthly

decline in two years, according to the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index for the sector

released Monday. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 from a revised 51.4 reading in June. Economists

had expected a reading of 50.9.

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Index of production for manufacturing

100.5 in Q2 2007, 92.1 in Q2 2011.

Output index for business services & finance

105.0 in Q2 2007, 104.7 in Q2 2011.

Sterling devaluation via QE and low interest rates to rebalance the economy was just a lie. It was just to enable banks to steal from savers and corporations to steal from everybody.

And they are still stealing by having the biggest margin between their lending rates and the B of E base rate in history. Banks have simply stolen savers money and reflated. Disgusting! The whole 'recovery' stinks like rotting fish. We should now stop pretending there can be a true recovery or meaningful growth when the whole western world are carrying unsustainable debts. It all needs dealing with as an orderly default. Cyprus went bust last week and about to hold out its hand to ECB too. Spain about to be downgraded in the markets. IT will not stop!!

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/global-manufacturing-collapses-worst-levels-mid-2009-markets-shrug-it

News from last night out of China, coupled with early morning news from Europe confirmed what many speculated: namely that global manufacturing is now in a toxic spiral and absent another stimulus kick from various monetary and fiscal authorities there is no catalyst on the horizon to put the global economy into second gear. As Reuters observes, factories in Asia and Europe all but stagnated in July, according to business surveys that showed the weakest rates of growth since major industrial powers were struggling through the 2009 recession. While stock markets rose on signs of a last minute solution that would avoid a U.S. debt default, manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) provided the latest evidence of a slowing global economy. The euro zone manufacturing PMI, which gauges the activities of thousands of businesses, fell to 50.4 in July from 52.0 in June -- its worst showing since September 2009 and barely above the 50 mark dividing growth and contraction. Perhaps more worryingly, China's official government PMI dropped to 50.7 from 50.9 in June, its weakest in more than two years, while the HSBC PMI fell below the 50 mark for the first time in a year -- to 49.3 in July from 51.6. Following Friday's horrendous GDP and Chicago PMI readings these are hardly a surprise. Needless to say, the reverse decoupling thesis will be tested once again today after the July ISM is released with consensus looking for a 54.9 print, and Zero Hedge looking for number just a tad above 50. But none of this matters. As Bloomberg's James Halloway points out, "Markets are for now shrugging off Friday’s poor U.S. GDP report, softening PMI prints in China and Germany, contractionary PMI readings for Ireland, Spain, U.K."

The global manufacturing recovery.

More printy printy is needed.

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The QE fix is wearing off. Time for a new hit of freshly printed cash but first we need to experience the pain of withdrawal for a bit, in order to overcome the objections from any doubters about the wisdom of debt monetisation.

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More printy printy is needed.

The dream of making love on a bed of £50 notes (for some) gets another step closer, shame they'll be worthless, but hey, you cannot have everything :lol:

The Govt. need to start running a respectable and honest country and stop the old Ponzi of yesteryear before the whole ******ing lot goes up in flames.

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The dream of making love on a bed of £50 notes (for some) gets another step closer, shame they'll be worthless, but hey, you cannot have everything :lol:

The Govt. need to start running a respectable and honest country and stop the old Ponzi of yesteryear before the whole ******ing lot goes up in flames.

£50 notes!!! Peasant.

I'm dreaming of having sex in a bed full of worthless billion pound notes.

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The QE fix is wearing off. Time for a new hit of freshly printed cash but first we need to experience the pain of withdrawal for a bit, in order to overcome the objections from any doubters about the wisdom of debt monetisation.

The QE fix is poison, this is all about theft of money from the economy and the general population and stuffing into the back pockets of the banks and banksters - that includes the corrupt central banks who themselves issue fake new money and receive interest on "their" investments and make themselves too big to fail along with their bankster mates.

The inflation that Qe is generating is crippling the general economy and will continue to do so, together with rigged interest rates.

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The global manufacturing recovery.

Had to happen eventually. Export driven economies actually need those importing their products to buy the things.

Does that mean the Chinese are soon to stop snapping up London property?

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The QE fix is wearing off. Time for a new hit of freshly printed cash but first we need to experience the pain of withdrawal for a bit, in order to overcome the objections from any doubters about the wisdom of debt monetisation.

The fly in the ointment is the price of oil.

BrentSterling010811.gif

Back in 2008 Brent crude priced in sterling fell from a peak of £73.68 on 3rd July to £24.87 on 24 December, a drop of over 66% in just six months. This made it very easy for the BoE to argue that QE was necessary to prevent CPI from going well below target.

At present with manufacturing weakening (globally as well as domestically) the oil price has remained stubbornly high. In 2008 we had just 11 days when Brent was over £70/bbl, but in 2011 we've already had 81 days at £70+.

The onset of QE back in March 2009 coincided with the pound going below $1.40, and a repeat of that with Brent at its current levels could well poleaxe the UK economy. More QE may seem a given if the UK drifts back towards recession, but there are severe risks while the price of oil remains so high and this time there would be nowhere for the MPC to hide.

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The fly in the ointment is the price of oil.

BrentSterling010811.gif

Back in 2008 Brent crude priced in sterling fell from a peak of £73.68 on 3rd July to £24.87 on 24 December, a drop of over 66% in just six months. This made it very easy for the BoE to argue that QE was necessary to prevent CPI from going well below target.

At present with manufacturing weakening (globally as well as domestically) the oil price has remained stubbornly high. In 2008 we had just 11 days when Brent was over £70/bbl, but in 2011 we've already had 81 days at £70+.

The onset of QE back in March 2009 coincided with the pound going below $1.40, and a repeat of that with Brent at its current levels could well poleaxe the UK economy. More QE may seem a given if the UK drifts back towards recession, but there are severe risks while the price of oil remains so high and this time there would be nowhere for the MPC to hide.

Excellent info thanks FT.

I've always said they the BOE can not print with inflation so high. The inflation is already destroying the economy. I believe that is that reason for the drop in manufacturing PMI. it's certainly damaging the company I work for. Profit margins are pretty much non existant now because of raw material prices. More inflation and so more QE would finish us off!

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Excellent info thanks FT.

I've always said they the BOE can not print with inflation so high. The inflation is already destroying the economy. I believe that is that reason for the drop in manufacturing PMI. it's certainly damaging the company I work for. Profit margins are pretty much non existant now because of raw material prices. More inflation and so more QE would finish us off!

Agreed - really excellent post FT

Higher inflation is squeezing household finances. Higher interest rates would squeeze the finances of those with mortgages. Seemingly the same outcome... So why is higher inflation not leading to the HPC that we think higher interest rates would?

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US ISM manufacturing index just tanked too.

Previous 55.3

Forecast 54.5

Actual 50.9!

Relief rally over. Markets falling again.

Edited by Pent Up

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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