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thirdwave

Signs Of Economic Downturn

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Booming London? yeah right!

On my regular drive from Camberwell to Greenwich I have noticed quite a few shop closures, businesses going under in the last couple of months or so, with crappy kebab/ jerk chicken places leading the pack. Shops I frequent near work appear unusually quiet, especially the barbers (had to literally fight one off after I walked past him into the one next door last week). Falafels in the popular lunch joint in Camberwell Green are showing signs of serious size deflation and have even developed a doughnut like hole in the middle in the last few months. When I put it to the chap behind the counter, he blamed rocketing food prices but added that he feared losing clientele if he raised prices by even 25-50p.

All this just minutes away from streets where houses can fetch a million or over..

Also an acquaintance at work who has some interest in the restaurant trade (of the curry house kind) in a shabby part of East London reports a 90% fall in profits since beginning of 2009 (down from around £ 2k/week to £200)

What I find curious about the above is that these are parts of London with huge shadow economies, which I would expect to be very resilient in downturns (due to high levels of tax evasion)..so if all the benefit cheats supplementing their income with cash in hand work are feeling the pinch, the rest of the country must have it really bad..

I`ve also come across a few properties in SE London (some of them big detached houses in decent areas) with private for sale boards. How common is this practice in other parts of the country? Is this indicative of sellers in distress or vendors just taking a punt

Edited by thirdwave

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What I find curious about the above is that these are parts of London with huge shadow economies, which I would expect to be very resilient in downturns (due to high levels of tax evasion)..so if all the benefit cheats supplementing their income with cash in hand work are feeling the pinch, the rest of the country must have it really bad..

Surely this is the secret to London - black market + welfare abuse. I wonder how the BoE factors that into their equations.

Last time in London I went to a do in NW8, stayed in my brother's flat in Wimbledon. Had to rush because of work and went for a last minute haircut - cheaper than I get it in Dorset and better quality. Just could not figure out how people survive there on such low prices/good service.

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Surely this is the secret to London - black market + welfare abuse. I wonder how the BoE factors that into their equations.

Last time in London I went to a do in NW8, stayed in my brother's flat in Wimbledon. Had to rush because of work and went for a last minute haircut - cheaper than I get it in Dorset and better quality. Just could not figure out how people survive there on such low prices/good service.

The sheer magnitude of tax fraud going on in the more 'diverse' parts of London is truly shocking. I personally know someone who used to design houses for many Asian families from West London,most of who own shops selling Asian merchandise locally. These houses are typically located in very desirable parts of Buckinghamshire (Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross)/Surrey (Virginia Water/Elmbridge)/Berkshire and cost millions. It doesn`t take a genius to work that most of these have been funded through tax evasion and fraudulent accounting.Maybe HMRC chooses to ignore some of this as many who otherwise operate in the black economy would end up on long term welfare in the event of a govt crackdown.

I suppose one could argue that many of these immigrant communities hail from countries where people invest little faith in government and corruption is the norm, which consequently engenders a culture of tax evasion. The failure by successive governments to tackle the issue has created highly insular parallel communities (read ghettos) in different parts of London, aided by the fact that they are economically self sustaining to a large extent (with a big dollop of dole money of course). In any event, I feel these parallel economies within London were doing quite well in the past few years despite the widespread doom and gloom and have only recently started showing signs of a downturn..

Edited by thirdwave

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The sheer magnitude of tax fraud going on in the more 'diverse' parts of London is truly shocking. I personally know someone who used to design houses for many Asian families from West London,most of who own shops selling Asian merchandise locally. These houses are typically located in very desirable parts of Buckinghamshire (Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross)/Surrey (Virginia Water/Elmbridge)/Berkshire and cost millions. It doesn`t take a genius to work that most of these have been funded through tax evasion and fraudulent accounting.Maybe HMRC chooses to ignore some of this as many who otherwise operate in the black economy would end up on long term welfare in the event of a govt crackdown.

I suppose one could argue that many of these immigrant communities hail from countries where people invest little faith in government and corruption is the norm, which consequently engenders a culture of tax evasion. The failure by successive governments to tackle the issue has created highly insular parallel communities (read ghettos) in different parts of London, aided by the fact that they are economically self sustaining to a large extent (with a big dollop of dole money of course). In any event, I feel these parallel economies within London were doing quite well in the past few years despite the widespread doom and gloom and have only recently started showing signs of a downturn..

Not often I cry racist, but your a little to obvious mate!

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Booming London? yeah right!

Several shops in Chiswick selling gifts and twigs have closed down.

Actually in this area I take that quite seriously.

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Not often I cry racist, but your a little to obvious mate!

Really? I think he just pointed out the obvious.

I have alot of time for people who look after themselves rather than line the pockets of gubmint. Welfare abuse is a different thing.

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Really? I think he just pointed out the obvious.

I have alot of time for people who look after themselves rather than line the pockets of gubmint. Welfare abuse is a different thing.

OP took the time to point out that the people in question are Asian, as if they're the only segment of society building/buying houses. Then made the giant leap from this to tax fraud. Evidence? If it exists, are these Asians the only segment of society indulging in this tax evasion?

I don't mind a discussion on the rights and wrongs of the tax system, and avoiding it. I don't like the implication that it's mainly Asian shopkeepers that indulge in tax evasion.

Alarms bells ringing.

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OP took the time to point out that the people in question are Asian, as if they're the only segment of society building/buying houses. Then made the giant leap from this to tax fraud. Evidence? If it exists, are these Asians the only segment of society indulging in this tax evasion?

I don't mind a discussion on the rights and wrongs of the tax system, and avoiding it. I don't like the implication that it's mainly Asian shopkeepers that indulge in tax evasion.

Alarms bells ringing.

Have a look at his first post. Seems to me he's just giving a description of his experience, and the clear implication is that his observations come from asian parts of London. No point denying that there are ghettos and closely linked communities who fly under the radar. I imagine muslims are the only group coherent enough to manage this, particularly because of large, close families plus the huge amount of movement between the UK and Pakistan. In my view that's a good thing, except when the expense is coming out of my pocket.

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OP took the time to point out that the people in question are Asian, as if they're the only segment of society building/buying houses. Then made the giant leap from this to tax fraud. Evidence? If it exists, are these Asians the only segment of society indulging in this tax evasion?

I don't mind a discussion on the rights and wrongs of the tax system, and avoiding it. I don't like the implication that it's mainly Asian shopkeepers that indulge in tax evasion.

Alarms bells ringing.

I worked on the tax evasion/benefit cheat hotline (DWP) for a few years not so long ago and was startled by the Asian community who would report their own siblings, parents, cousins, aunts and uncles for all and sundry. The young men reporting their brothers were the most common ones to report and would usually retort something like it's not fair their brother drive a nicer Merc/beamer than they themselves did as alot of their status is derived by material things.

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Booming London? yeah right!

On my regular drive from Camberwell to Greenwich I have noticed quite a few shop closures, businesses going under in the last couple of months or so, with crappy kebab/ jerk chicken places leading the pack. Shops I frequent near work appear unusually quiet, especially the barbers (had to literally fight one off after I walked past him into the one next door last week). Falafels in the popular lunch joint in Camberwell Green are showing signs of serious size deflation and have even developed a doughnut like hole in the middle in the last few months. When I put it to the chap behind the counter, he blamed rocketing food prices but added that he feared losing clientele if he raised prices by even 25-50p.

All this just minutes away from streets where houses can fetch a million or over..

Also an acquaintance at work who has some interest in the restaurant trade (of the curry house kind) in a shabby part of East London reports a 90% fall in profits since beginning of 2009 (down from around £ 2k/week to £200)

What I find curious about the above is that these are parts of London with huge shadow economies, which I would expect to be very resilient in downturns (due to high levels of tax evasion)..so if all the benefit cheats supplementing their income with cash in hand work are feeling the pinch, the rest of the country must have it really bad..

I`ve also come across a few properties in SE London (some of them big detached houses in decent areas) with private for sale boards. How common is this practice in other parts of the country? Is this indicative of sellers in distress or vendors just taking a punt

Numerous surveys show that people in London have less disposable income that people elsewhere due to London house prices and cost of living being so expensive.

I have said it before many times - London is really only a place now for the super rich and often that means super-rich foreigners.

As we have virtually no safeguards I fear that we will see such people begin to buy property in parts of the UK effectively forcing millions of British born people to be unable to buy houses in their own country.

Can you imagine what is going to happen when a few hundred million middle class / rich Chinese learn about the UK having no safeguards?

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We're all permanetly skint and everyone I know earning 50k and below rents or were born at the right time and now own properties they could never afford to buy now.

London can't really be talked about as a whole, there are property hotspots and property blackspots. Eg. studio flats in NW3 will start around £220,000, or you can pick up a 1 bed flat in Peckham for £100,000. But you wouldn't see me living anywhere near Peckham if you put a gun to my head...

If you want to live somewhere relitively safe and desirable you need to pay some serious money, otherwise it's sh*tsville, rent or move out altogether.

I have an EA friend based in South East London and she frequently encounters Chinese Cash Buyers. Although isn't this what the Brits have been doing abroad during boom times, so it's just payback time I guess.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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