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rantnrave

Nationwide 7Am Tomorrow

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What are land registry prices doing for your area. In mine they have fallen 8 months running with the last few falls picking up a nice pace. This mirrors what I'm actually seeing of sold prices in my area too. (not asking prices which are 2007+)

pretty much back to peak values here (Brighton), maybe 1-2% drop now over the last 5 years. Don't seem to be going anywhere fast - maybe up 1-2% per annum. Nationwide has historically got a southern bias, whereas halifax has a northern one, I think this is why we see halifax's figures sitting slightly under those of the land reg, and nationwide's sitting higher than nationwide.

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Really. But isn't buying a home cheaper than renting a house?

Nope, and I have the cash in the bank.

The interest I receive on the cash I'd need to buy the house I'm renting more than pays the rent. So, even in the short term, I'm better off not having money tied up in an illiquid, depreciating, asset.

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What are land registry prices doing for your area. In mine they have fallen 8 months running with the last few falls picking up a nice pace. This mirrors what I'm actually seeing of sold prices in my area too. (not asking prices which are 2007+)

Same in Northants, 8 months running. Sales volumes collapsed. These are actual sales figures not made up one. The nationwide is a delusional index now and any organisation that keeps pumping out this sort of sales literature isn't getting my savings. The countess withdrew all her savings this week from them and moved them elsewhere. I refuse to give them my money now. The thing is, they used to be a great B.S.

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Feb 11 £161,183

Mar 11 £164,751

Apr 11 £165,609

May 11 £167,208

Jun 11 £168,205

B)

Yup, I can only see 4 increases there! 5 sets of figures, but Feb has no comparitor! (incidentally it was down in Feb a measly few hundred quid!)

Todays announcement means we have caught up with your proclaimation of 5 increases though.

However, i will add that I didnt realise just how much prices have increased this year. I initially stated "hardly surging" yet in 4 month period your figures cover, the nsa prices increased by 4.3%!!!

Surely this means the seasonal adjustments have been negative over this period and we have a spate of positive adjustments to come. In which case I cant see nationwide reporting a drop for some time.

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Nationwide man on BBC News now.

Waffle, waffle, spin, spin. Presenter pointed out that Land registry is showing falls and what does he have to say about that. His reply..... sideways....stability....waffle....spin. Presenter repeated the question, answer was same waffle and spin :lol:

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My first hope was for house prices to fall in isolation, but due to endless meddling this simply isn't happening. In real terms they have fallen and continue to fall, but unless you own real things then you are not seeing this fall in its full glory.

Yes, i know what you mean

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Yup, I can only see 4 increases there! 5 sets of figures, but Feb has no comparitor! (incidentally it was down in Feb a measly few hundred quid!)

Todays announcement means we have caught up with your proclaimation of 5 increases though.

However, i will add that I didnt realise just how much prices have increased this year. I initially stated "hardly surging" yet in 4 month period your figures cover, the nsa prices increased by 4.3%!!!

Surely this means the seasonal adjustments have been negative over this period and we have a spate of positive adjustments to come. In which case I cant see nationwide reporting a drop for some time.

NSA figures are meaningless without comparables. For example in a normal Market NSA prices might have risen 10% over the same period. Which would actually make that 4% very bad indeed! The housing Market is very seasonal.

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An unchanged or minor fall from Nationwide next month will see their YoY go positive :(

comeon mate, once the scale of the credit crunch was upon us and the resolve of the PWTB to preserve some kind of macro national stability in order to preserve govt electability, did you ever really expect severe annual falls? really?

you need to get real and get used to renting, like me, I'm afraid. The annual falls are going to float around the low single digits for years, whilst we have 4% inflation, and come 2017 that will be 35% off house prices, and longer term they won't go up much for a long time to come, and that's that. no fireworks. no capitulation (well there will be a stealth one). no blood on the streets.

Edited by Si1

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comeon mate, once the scale of the credit crunch was upon us and the resolve of the PWTB to preserve some kind of macro national stability in order to preserve govt electability, did you ever really expect severe annual falls? really?

you need to get real and get used to renting, like me, I'm afraid. The annual falls are going to float around the low single digits for years, whilst we have 4% inflation, and come 2017 that will be 35% off house prices, and longer term they won't go up much for a long time to come, and that's that. no fireworks. no capitulation (well there will be a stealth one). no blood on the streets.

Agree with all that. It's the media spin that accompanies a return to YoY postive that makes my blood boil.

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Nationwide version of the HDI now dropping back slightly for July as Rightmove indicates sellers are starting to become more realistic about their pricing expectations..

hdijulynationwide.jpg

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When your post is included in the BBC reporting of this index then I'll be interested. This is just another piece of bad news that's been coming now for the past 7 months.

It's hardly crash territory it it? I've been waiting for 4 years.

It bloody is a crash. You've just not factored in inflation and geography. Let's say inflation is running at 5% per annum (ok officially it's slightly less but how often do you buy TV's compared to milk http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/news/food-inflation-hits-49-per-cent-as-energy-bills-rise-by-onefifth-2294294.html)

4 years of 5% is at least 20%. Then you've got a drop of say 10%. What does that leave?

A real drop of 30%.

Except, it's more complicated than that. Normally inflation is produced by an increase in the money supply. This time round it was caused by a failure of the money supply to contract in a symmetrical way. Money was pumped in at the top end, whilst being sucked out at the bottom. The idea being that it filtered down, which a little did after the parasitical bankers had taken their billions. Finally it also occured in a new global economy. The result was that important things like food and energy, and good housing were chased by a larger global affluent population.

The result? Disposable income has fallen of a cliff for most people, but for the rich things are still great. Disposable income is what feeds your mortgage so as this drops so will house prices.

The house price crash has occured, but in areas where rich people don't want to buy. In areas where rich people want to live the house prices remain bouyant, where they don't I wouldn't mortgage a cup of coffee to buy. We live in a global economy now, a New World Order, where there are no longer rich and poor countries, there are rich and poor people.

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It bloody is a crash. You've just not factored in inflation and geography. Let's say inflation is running at 5% per annum (ok officially it's slightly less but how often do you buy TV's compared to milk http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/news/food-inflation-hits-49-per-cent-as-energy-bills-rise-by-onefifth-2294294.html)

4 years of 5% is at least 20%. Then you've got a drop of say 10%. What does that leave?

A real drop of 30%.

The natural conclusion of this assertion suggests that the right time to buy would have been april 2009, and let inflation slowly make the price you paid seem less horrific.

But I disagree.

Inflation alone does not support prices. Inflation is squeezing budgets, it is not driving up wages and thus reducing the houseprice:wage ratio.

The houseprice:wage ratio is reducing slowly because wages are climbing and prices are falling - both at a snails pace. But since everything else households have to buy is increasing, then the ratio of hp:wage that can be sustained is falling...... and falling fast.

The effect of the current inflation is to lower the level to which prices will fall if price discovery ever happens. Wage inflation will increase the natural floor on house prices, but inflation alone will not.

Edited by Caveat Mortgagor

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The effect of inflation is to lower the level to which prices will fall if price discovery ever happens.

I intuitively feel that this is true - at the same time the true final bottom may be in 20+ years time after a mini boomlet cycle between 2017 and 2035, this macro credit cycle we are experiencing now could take that long to unwind in an underlying sense

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I intuitively feel that this is true - at the same time the true final bottom may be in 20+ years time after a mini boomlet cycle between 2017 and 2035, this macro credit cycle we are experiencing now could take that long to unwind in an underlying sense

By which time, our hands will be too cold and dead to snatch the house keys from the Boomers' cold dead hands.

:angry:

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By which time, our hands will be too cold and dead to snatch the house keys from the Boomers' cold dead hands.

:angry:

and if you invest intelligently elsewhere then you will also be quite rich

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By which time, our hands will be too cold and dead to snatch the house keys from the Boomers' cold dead hands.

:angry:

There was an interesting survey of boomers published by Shelter this week (didn't notice it posted elsewhere but it may have been):

http://england.shelter.org.uk/news/july_2011/baby_boomers_put_retirement_at_risk

Britain’s housing crisis is forcing the baby boomer generation to risk their financial security in old age to support their family’s housing costs, Shelter has revealed.

A YouGov survey for Shelter highlights a generation facing a ‘triple whammy’ of housing pressures: they spend thousands of pounds each year supporting children and elderly parents with housing payments, often on top of their own.

* More than four in ten (43 per cent) people aged 50-65 who have children are helping or have helped them to rent or buy a home, spending an average of just under £4,200 in the past year alone.

* Of these, one in ten (11 per cent) are also helping or have helped elderly parents with housing or care costs.

* 43 per cent of those who’ve helped children or parents say they are worried about their ability to pay for their own housing or care costs in retirement as a result.

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In that widely despised, non paper, non debt backed currency, house prices are down 75%.

True, but unless you sold your house and converted all the money to gold before sterling tanked, it's of little relevance.

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