thecrashingisles Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25809 You might want to sit down for this one. As bad as the housing crisis has been over the past three years, it has only been a warm up to what we have headed our way. Laurie Goodman, from Amherst Securities, has been tracking the housing market as well as anyone. She just presented her latest findings at the American Enterprise Institute and it is a horrific forecast, to say the least. As she puts it, “10.81 million homes are at risk of default over the next 6 years. Even if we try to be extremely conservative we can’t get the number below 8.7 million units.”With defaults already piling up, the shadow inventory of homes has been growing rapidly, and given this new data the number is going to skyrocket. As this chart shows, the total has gone up from 2 million homes in 2009 to 3.35 million as of April, a 67.5% increase already. Full presentation here - http://www.aei.org/docLib/AEI%2007-21-2011%20Goodman.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25809 Full presentation here - http://www.aei.org/docLib/AEI%2007-21-2011%20Goodman.pdf Still waiting to catch that cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 (edited) Sub Prime Mortgages were just the start: Two other types of exotic Mortgages are just as unaffordable. Alt-A's and Option Arms. Luring borrowers in at 1%, but after 2-3-5 years, rates are starting to reset. Value of Sub Prime was about a Trillion Dollars. Value of ALT-A Mortgages was also about a Trillion. Value of Option Arms, was about 600 Billion. so Really the Housing crash has only just begun to unfold in the USA. [Which is more than can be said for the UK, excluding 50% falls in Northern Ireland] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kunB4SnAh4g Edited July 28, 2011 by Milton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_James Toney_* Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Still waiting to catch that cold. dont think we ever will now, just a few % here and there, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 dont think we ever will now, just a few % here and there, When interest rates rise we might well see some action, particularly if wages continue to fall in real terms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinAndPlatonic Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 When interest rates rise we might well see some action, Is that like when hell freezes over ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Is that like when hell freezes over ? Foreigners might get tired of lending money to a country with no economic growth, 5%+ inflation and a depreciating currency at 3% for ten years sooner than you might think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinAndPlatonic Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Foreigners might get tired of lending money to a country with no economic growth, 5%+ inflation and a depreciating currency at 3% for ten years sooner than you might think... When will they get tired, they are not tired at the moment so what will change things. At the moment we are almost like a log in a muddy pool, and they are standing on it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 dont think we ever will now, just a few % here and there, You never know - US might well default next week sending global IRs upwards. Things might change overnight with regards to the UK housing market. Of course, everyone will be out of work but, hey, HPs will be tanking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 When will they get tired, they are not tired at the moment so what will change things. At the moment we are almost like a log in a muddy pool, and they are standing on it... maybe some point in 2012 or 2013 when the economy misses its growth forecasts a few more times and inflation refuses to fall then they think...well I can lend to Italy to get 6%...or lend to Britain at 3%... whats the difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Bowman Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 maybe some point in 2012 or 2013 when the economy misses its growth forecasts a few more times and inflation refuses to fall then they think...well I can lend to Italy to get 6%...or lend to Britain at 3%... whats the difference? If the PIIGS finally go over the edge the difference will be that with one you stand a good chance of getting your money back with the others............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If the PIIGS finally go over the edge the difference will be that with one you stand a good chance of getting your money back with the others............ 50% of our overseas trade is with the Eurozone, more if you include the non Euro parts of Europe As the Eurozone moves into austerity, I don't see much chance for our "export led recovereh" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crash2006 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 You never know - US might well default next week sending global IRs upwards. Things might change overnight with regards to the UK housing market. Of course, everyone will be out of work but, hey, HPs will be tanking China will be hittign a deflationary period in 5 years worse than Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinAndPlatonic Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 maybe some point in 2012 or 2013 when the economy misses its growth forecasts a few more times and inflation refuses to fall then they think...well I can lend to Italy to get 6%...or lend to Britain at 3%... whats the difference? Those comparisons are a bit like Icesave and Nationwide.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Those comparisons are a bit like Icesave and Nationwide.... Sorry, so which one is Icesave? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 dont think we ever will now, just a few % here and there, If you call 30% to 40% a few, I'm in complete agreement . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GinAndPlatonic Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 until the log gets waterlogged and sinks.then they'll wish they'd got off before hand.plus ca change. There is no land anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rentforlife Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 28% of US homeowners already owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth. A recent survey by Fannie Mae found that 27% of American homeowners are considering walking away from their mortgage. A perfect storm is brewing So do we have anything interesting facts about uk? Im bored of hearing how much the US property market is bombing, yet we see no sign of it here (except NI of course, where overbuilding has been rife) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danlee74 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Sub Prime Mortgages were just the start: ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kunB4SnAh4g About 8 mins in ... "we will not get the housing industry back on track until we clear out this garbage" ... at least US is getting on with it. We are still kicking the can down the road. Why don't our "great leaders" just bite the bullet, tell the public what they need to know about the substantial price falls needed, and get our correction over with? I really do think that if Brownstuff hadn't interfered in the market in 09 then we would be very close to the bottom by now (if not, already found it) and then we would be able to start a real recovery, not just a government/BoE sponsored plastic recovery. IIRC, we dropped c20% in 18 months, that was two years ago so at the run rate we were going at it's not impossible to think we woud have seen 50% from peak by now. Ok, there would be some pain (for mainly feckless borrowers) and a somewhat forced rebalancing of our economy from consumption to production but in the long game, surely it would have been worth it. But I suppose he did save the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milton Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 (edited) Check out this Spam Email I received: Which states Guaranteed and Immeadiate Net Yields, on 3/4 Bedroom Investment Properties of up to 19%......... A cash investment of only $45,000 / £28,000 will generate you a Government Assured NET rental return of approximately $9,000 / £5,500per anum. An income that you can draw on from the day you close on the property. ***Click on Link*** Investment Highlights Pre Tenanted and fully managed Fully refurbished externally and internally Sold well below Market Value and a fraction of the prices only 3 years ago No hidden costs Significant Capital Growth forecast Solid and realistic exit strategies in place Robust tenant screening process in place Rental demand far outstripping supply Edited August 7, 2011 by Milton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 China will be hittign a deflationary period in 5 years worse than Japan. How can you have deflation when everything is cheap as chips? In Japan everything cost a fortune Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
athom Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Still waiting to catch that cold. yep, don't know how much worse our immune system has to be before we get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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