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Housing Market Headed Off A Cliff. 10.8 Million Mortgages At Risk

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http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25809

You might want to sit down for this one. As bad as the housing crisis has been over the past three years, it has only been a warm up to what we have headed our way. Laurie Goodman, from Amherst Securities, has been tracking the housing market as well as anyone. She just presented her latest findings at the American Enterprise Institute and it is a horrific forecast, to say the least. As she puts it, “10.81 million homes are at risk of default over the next 6 years. Even if we try to be extremely conservative we can’t get the number below 8.7 million units.”

With defaults already piling up, the shadow inventory of homes has been growing rapidly, and given this new data the number is going to skyrocket. As this chart shows, the total has gone up from 2 million homes in 2009 to 3.35 million as of April, a 67.5% increase already.

Full presentation here - http://www.aei.org/docLib/AEI%2007-21-2011%20Goodman.pdf

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Sub Prime Mortgages were just the start:

Two other types of exotic Mortgages are just as unaffordable.

Alt-A's and Option Arms.

Luring borrowers in at 1%, but after 2-3-5 years, rates are starting to reset.

Value of Sub Prime was about a Trillion Dollars.

Value of ALT-A Mortgages was also about a Trillion.

Value of Option Arms, was about 600 Billion.

so Really the Housing crash has only just begun to unfold in the USA. [Which is more than can be said for the UK, excluding 50% falls in Northern Ireland]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kunB4SnAh4g

Edited by Milton

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dont think we ever will now, just a few % here and there,

When interest rates rise we might well see some action, particularly if wages continue to fall in real terms

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Is that like when hell freezes over ?

Foreigners might get tired of lending money to a country with no economic growth, 5%+ inflation and a depreciating currency at 3% for ten years sooner than you might think...

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Foreigners might get tired of lending money to a country with no economic growth, 5%+ inflation and a depreciating currency at 3% for ten years sooner than you might think...

When will they get tired, they are not tired at the moment so what will change things. At the moment we are almost like a log in a muddy pool, and they are standing on it...

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dont think we ever will now, just a few % here and there,

You never know - US might well default next week sending global IRs upwards. Things might change overnight with regards to the UK housing market.

Of course, everyone will be out of work but, hey, HPs will be tanking :blink:

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When will they get tired, they are not tired at the moment so what will change things. At the moment we are almost like a log in a muddy pool, and they are standing on it...

maybe some point in 2012 or 2013 when the economy misses its growth forecasts a few more times and inflation refuses to fall

then they think...well I can lend to Italy to get 6%...or lend to Britain at 3%...

whats the difference?

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maybe some point in 2012 or 2013 when the economy misses its growth forecasts a few more times and inflation refuses to fall

then they think...well I can lend to Italy to get 6%...or lend to Britain at 3%...

whats the difference?

If the PIIGS finally go over the edge the difference will be that with one you stand a good chance of getting your money back with the others............

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If the PIIGS finally go over the edge the difference will be that with one you stand a good chance of getting your money back with the others............

50% of our overseas trade is with the Eurozone, more if you include the non Euro parts of Europe

As the Eurozone moves into austerity, I don't see much chance for our "export led recovereh"

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You never know - US might well default next week sending global IRs upwards. Things might change overnight with regards to the UK housing market.

Of course, everyone will be out of work but, hey, HPs will be tanking :blink:

China will be hittign a deflationary period in 5 years worse than Japan.

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maybe some point in 2012 or 2013 when the economy misses its growth forecasts a few more times and inflation refuses to fall

then they think...well I can lend to Italy to get 6%...or lend to Britain at 3%...

whats the difference?

Those comparisons are a bit like Icesave and Nationwide....

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28% of US homeowners already owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth. A recent survey by Fannie Mae found that 27% of American homeowners are considering walking away from their mortgage. A perfect storm is brewing

So do we have anything interesting facts about uk? Im bored of hearing how much the US property market is bombing, yet we see no sign of it here (except NI of course, where overbuilding has been rife)

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Sub Prime Mortgages were just the start: ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kunB4SnAh4g

About 8 mins in ... "we will not get the housing industry back on track until we clear out this garbage" ... at least US is getting on with it. We are still kicking the can down the road. Why don't our "great leaders" just bite the bullet, tell the public what they need to know about the substantial price falls needed, and get our correction over with?

I really do think that if Brownstuff hadn't interfered in the market in 09 then we would be very close to the bottom by now (if not, already found it) and then we would be able to start a real recovery, not just a government/BoE sponsored plastic recovery. IIRC, we dropped c20% in 18 months, that was two years ago so at the run rate we were going at it's not impossible to think we woud have seen 50% from peak by now. Ok, there would be some pain (for mainly feckless borrowers) and a somewhat forced rebalancing of our economy from consumption to production but in the long game, surely it would have been worth it. But I suppose he did save the world.

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Check out this Spam Email I received:

Which states Guaranteed and Immeadiate Net Yields, on 3/4 Bedroom Investment Properties of up to 19%.........

A cash investment of only $45,000 / £28,000 will generate you a Government Assured NET rental return of approximately $9,000 / £5,500per anum. An income that you can draw on from the day you close on the property.

***Click on Link***

Investment Highlights

bullet.jpgPre Tenanted and fully managed

bullet.jpgFully refurbished externally and internally

bullet.jpgSold well below Market Value and a fraction of the prices only 3 years ago

bullet.jpgNo hidden costs

bullet.jpg Significant Capital Growth forecast

bullet.jpgSolid and realistic exit strategies in place

bullet.jpgRobust tenant screening process in place

bullet.jpgRental demand far outstripping supply

Edited by Milton

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China will be hittign a deflationary period in 5 years worse than Japan.

How can you have deflation when everything is cheap as chips?

In Japan everything cost a fortune

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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