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Sour Mash

Ni House Prices At The Lower End Not Far Off Bottoming?

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I was just browsing propertynews the other day for houses on the market in my area and I came across quite a few comparable ones to the one I'm currently renting. One in the very same street which is almost identical to my current place, a repayment mortgage with a typical deposit (say, 80% LTV) would be around the same as my current rent. Depending on how much deposit I wanted to put down, the repayment could be even quite a bit less than my rent (at say, 50% LTV). That's calculating IRs at the longer term average of 5% over the duration.

Okay, so I have enough savings to put down a big deposit or even buy a lower end house outright but it shows to me that this part of the market (2 bed terrace) is pretty close to bottom. And if I went with the best value short term trackers the immediate repayments would be ludicrously low ... of course, there could be a nasty sting 2-3 years down the line.

The good old 3-bed semi is holding up a bit better as are detached properties so I'd say they have a bit further to fall, maybe another 10-15%, but IMO anyone who is in the market for a typical FTB 2-bed terrace is now seeing value and affordability.

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I was just browsing propertynews the other day for houses on the market in my area and I came across quite a few comparable ones to the one I'm currently renting. One in the very same street which is almost identical to my current place, a repayment mortgage with a typical deposit (say, 80% LTV) would be around the same as my current rent. Depending on how much deposit I wanted to put down, the repayment could be even quite a bit less than my rent (at say, 50% LTV). That's calculating IRs at the longer term average of 5% over the duration.

Okay, so I have enough savings to put down a big deposit or even buy a lower end house outright but it shows to me that this part of the market (2 bed terrace) is pretty close to bottom. And if I went with the best value short term trackers the immediate repayments would be ludicrously low ... of course, there could be a nasty sting 2-3 years down the line.

The good old 3-bed semi is holding up a bit better as are detached properties so I'd say they have a bit further to fall, maybe another 10-15%, but IMO anyone who is in the market for a typical FTB 2-bed terrace is now seeing value and affordability.

Factor in interest rates at 7% and see how the comparison works ;)

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Without real numbers I can't really comment. Where is the area? What price for a typical FTB property? What is the average local wage? What are the job prospects? Are there local jobs or will I need to commute 30 miles every day? Also bear in mind if you put a deposit down on a house you have tied up that capital which could have been earning real interest.

I know in my area unless you are talking right at the bottom of the market i.e. areas of high deprivation, vandalism, no jobs near by, no amenities or Schools etc. we are not seeing value at the lower typical FTB end of the market. Still far from it.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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Ive seen some big drops in belfast, and sometimes think of taking a punt as an investment, but when I see the rates i think 'wise up'. Same for north coast. What gives? Ordinary houses with rates over 2k a year. IMO you need to check the rates too. High rate properties will fall hard IMO. Same as hard to heat ones I guess. Everyone will want to live in a small easy to heat home thats 5 minutes to the shops/work. Avoid all else?

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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