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50sQuiff

Q2 Gdp Figures Tomorrow

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Gather round ladies and gents, it's time to play meaningless metrics! Every churnalist and City rent-a-quote will currently be preparing for tomorrow's economic totem-worship.

Is Q2 GDP growth going to come in negative or unexpectedly low, ushering in calls for Printy Printy and plunging sterling into the gunk tank? Or is the recovereh well and truly locked in, as suggested by the advent of the Domino's Pizza Gourmet range?

Bonus points if you can guess the number of quotes from Capital Economics in tomorrow's BBC articles and blog posts to the nearest 100.

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I'm going for 1.1% and 213 quotes from Vicky Redwood.

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I guess the figure will be better than expected.

My coal face experience is that people aren't having so much trouble with debt. Could be down to better employment. But probably more to do with increasing, out of control, helter-skelter forbearance by our insane banks.

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Given that Vince is already screaming for more money printing, it can't be pretty.

I think around 0, perhaps +/-0.1% each way.

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50%+ they will say its down to the number of papers sold due to the scandals etc recently in the printed press.

TBH what ever [fudged] figure they report nothing will change. The figures are so dissconnected from reality now they can say what ever they want it wont change a thing.

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I'm going to go with +0.3% but this will be revised down twice to 0% (but no one looks at this so it will be swept under the carpet)

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Given that Vince is already screaming for more money printing, it can't be pretty.

I think VC was being politically astute. He knows there will be a clamour for more QE, he knows where the last lot of QE went. He has forced DC hand to spell out yesterday that their will be no more fiscal stimulus (which will be quickly forgotten) but VC has changed the agenda, and any government intervention now is less likely to be 'blunt QE' than it was before.

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George Osborne wasn't looking too worried on the news last night so I reckon it will still be positive, +0.2% I'd guess. So a "slow down" but not recession.

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  • 343 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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