Barack Obama Warns Of Market Meltdown If Us Debt Talks Fail

[mfp123]

Initially - but it may last only a few days.

As you say, it is an unknown... but to assume that gold will hit the stratosphere and stay there for a prolonged period is probably naive.

The clever money probably, if they are already in gold, will take the opportunity to get out with hefty profits.

The gold bugs, on the other hand, will be convinced that gold will go even higher but what worst can occur after a US default to drive gold even higher?

Gold bugs will never bail out of gold. This is why most will watch gold reach a peak and then will follow it back down to less than it is today.

If the US defaults, which I think it is unlikely, do not be surprised for punitive laws/taxation being brought in on the purchase and selling of gold.

you are thinking too much in terms of the retail investor.

gold will likely remain high, because countries and institutions will want to own gold as an asset. people buy t-bills becuase they need to store their money somewhere. US bonds are suppossed to be the no.1 safe haven, if they default, it no longer is.

they wont be trading gold, they will park their money there as somewhere to store money. they wont care if it gets them zero return.

so with a US default were not talking about a market fluctuation and short term reaction here were talking about a shift in the market fundamentals and dynamics into gold.

if the US, the most powerful economy in the world, isnt safe to put your money, is Europe safe, is japan safe?

[The Masked Tulip]

you are thinking too much in terms of the retail investor.

gold will likely remain high, because countries and institutions will want to own gold as an asset. people buy t-bills becuase they need to store their money somewhere. US bonds are suppossed to be the no.1 safe haven, if they default, it no longer is.

they wont be trading gold, they will park their money there as somewhere to store money. they wont care if it gets them zero return.

so with a US default were not talking about a market fluctuation and short term reaction here were talking about a shift in the market fundamentals and dynamics into gold.

if the US, the most powerful economy in the world, isnt safe to put your money, is Europe safe, is japan safe?

With all respect, it could be argued that you are thinking like a gold bug.

If - BIG IF - the US defaults then there will be some hours or days of panic until Obama makes some ressuring statement or, mostl ikely, people realise the World has not ended.

It may well result in a massive global restructuring of sovereign debts with all the holders of sovereign debt taking the hit - being forced to take the hit.

It won't be nice, it won't be fun for those taking the haircut and, yes, for a period gold will soar but then it could just as easily collapse.

Truth is, no one really knows as it has not happened before. It is still unlikely to happen now but I guess there are those in the US who are wondering if a default now would be preferable to defaulting when the numberis 20 trillion, or 30 trillion or even 50 trillion.

[Guest spp]

Cash.

I have no doubt that if the US were to default there would be a sudden surge in the gold price but, within days or a week or so, it may well do a u-turn and suddenly plunge.

Gold bugs are hoping for a default but a default might mean the collapse of the gold price.

How much Gold have you held over the years MT?

Let me guess....0?

Maybe you should spend more time with a metal detector down the gower than trying to make out you know something about Gold on web forums...

[The Masked Tulip]

How much Gold have you held over the years MT?

Let me guess....0?

Maybe you should spend more time with a metal detector down the gower than trying to make out you know something about Gold on web forums...

If what I have written has got under your skin so much to evoke such a response then clearly you are not as confident as you like to make out about the long-term viability of gold.

If I had that much money invested in a single ounce of gold, and held many ounces of it, I too would be having sleepless nights.

Btw, I never claimed to know anything about gold. I am merely voicing my opinion but clearly you do not like an opinion that differs from your own.

This is a house price forum and not a gold ramping one. If you come here ramping gold then at least have the curtesy to allow others to have a different opinion.

[Wahoo]

If what I have written has got under your skin so much to evoke such a response then clearly you are not as confident as you like to make out about the long-term viability of gold.

If I had that much money invested in a single ounce of gold, and held many ounces of it, I too would be having sleepless nights.

Btw, I never claimed to know anything about gold. I am merely voicing my opinion but clearly you do not like an opinion that differs from your own.

This is a house price forum and not a gold ramping one. If you come here ramping gold then at least have the curtesy to allow others to have a different opinion.

Forget gold...get ready to pile into equities.

This could lead to a spectacular crash on the markets, with equities dropping like a stone.

Have the cash ready, try to time the bottom, then buy into oilies and hold.

Could make you all very rich indeed!

[aa3]

They dont need to default on treasuries...they need to reign in SPENDING.

Well defaulting on treasuries would cut out a good 500 billion a year in interest payments.

[The Masked Tulip]

Forget gold...get ready to pile into equities.

This could lead to a spectacular crash on the markets, with equities dropping like a stone.

Have the cash ready, try to time the bottom, then buy into oilies and hold.

Could make you all very rich indeed!

+1

[aa3]

Its not a sure thing that the US dollar would fall in value. It could just as easily rise in value. Think of a nation with the US economy but debt free.

Some oil nation might try to jack up the price of oil for the US, after losing tens of billions on a default. But then the US just buys oil from one of the dozens of other oil producers.

Honestly the EU should follow the same path. The reason for bailing out Greece and others is they can't allow contagion to spread to the otehr bond markets in the EU. But if they said screw it, we're just defaulting on all the national debts.. then it deals with their own financial crisis once and for all.

[Guest spp]

If what I have written has got under your skin so much to evoke such a response then clearly you are not as confident as you like to make out about the long-term viability of gold.

If I had that much money invested in a single ounce of gold, and held many ounces of it, I too would be having sleepless nights.

Btw, I never claimed to know anything about gold. I am merely voicing my opinion but clearly you do not like an opinion that differs from your own.

This is a house price forum and not a gold ramping one. If you come here ramping gold then at least have the curtesy to allow others to have a different opinion.

I totally respect your opinion on Gold/Silver...Just glad I never listened to it. Had I listened, I wouldn't now be sitting on these assets that have cost me nothing and are simply held as security against a broken system. That my masked friend ensures I never get a restless nights sleep.

Confidence? Gold to the moon or a Gold collapse...I really couldn't care less.

For certain, one day you and RB will call it right, but maybe you should consider adding a disclaimer to those opinions.

[Bloo Loo]

Well defaulting on treasuries would cut out a good 500 billion a year in interest payments.

and they STILL wont have enough to pay the spending plans they currently have in place.

[dances with sheeple]

Forget gold...get ready to pile into equities.

This could lead to a spectacular crash on the markets, with equities dropping like a stone.

Have the cash ready, try to time the bottom, then buy into oilies and hold.

Could make you all very rich indeed!

Can you throw out some names, or will any oilies do?

[The Masked Tulip]

I totally respect your opinion on Gold/Silver...Just glad I never listened to it. Had I listened, I wouldn't now be sitting on these assets that have cost me nothing and are simply held as security against a broken system. That my masked friend ensures I never get a restless nights sleep.

Confidence? Gold to the moon or a Gold collapse...I really couldn't care less.

For certain, one day you and RB will call it right, but maybe you should consider adding a disclaimer to those opinions.

I suspect a gold collapse would have you wetting your bed.

The very fact that you get so riled by a stranger's comment on an online forum is indicative of just how worried you actually are.

If you truly believed you were correct in your belief in gold then you would not spend so much time on here hijacking threads with gold talk & trying to get us all to believe what you believe.

[Wahoo]

Can you throw out some names, or will any oilies do?

I gamble on the AIM market, as too old now for steady growth.

I've invested heavily in Sound OIL (SOU). They are about to produce revenue from Marciano gas field in Italy. They have 9 more licences to drill known oil/gas fields in Italy. But, they also have a 5% share in Kalimantan in Indonesia. This is a truely massive gas field owned by Salamander Energy. The 5% alone is worth £5.6 Million to Sound.

The company has a billion dollar upside. But...the original investor was RAB capital. RAB are going bust, so RAB have been ditching their SOU shares in massive numbers. It has forced the price down to 3.2p. Once RAB have fully unloaded, this share will go North, particularly with so much news to be announced. I've close to a million shares in this one, and I hope it will be a multi-bagger.

Sound Presentation

I'll get out of sound when it hits 30p.

The other one worth looking at is Clontarf Energy. (CLON). They have been awarded a licence in Ghana, next to a known massive oil field. The shares are 5p each, but if they hit the black stuff could go to £2.50 / £3.00 each fast. This is much higher risk than Sound.

If the Yanks default, both these shares will slump(Along with all the others!), and would be worth buying, because they will bounce back. - imho.

But....AIM is not for everyone. You need to do your own research.

Edited July 24, 2011 by Davetolbooth

[Dorkins]

Interesting. Fits with Sceppies view that the most valuable thing in a panic is the thing that debts are denominated in.

What makes you think they'll even allow the panic to start? Starting tomorrow, the ECB could start buying every single PIIGS government bond that comes up for sale with freshly printed euros. They could buy every bond and share from every troubled bank in the eurozone. They could buy every mortgage-backed security, and every credit derivative. The same is of course true for all central banks.

The only thing preventing them from doing so would be political checks and balances. Seems to me that relative to the temptation to print away our worries today, those checks and balances are like tissue paper to a tsunami.

[Si1]

You are so right TMT. This is a HPC forum but even though the moderators set up a thread for the goldbugs to post in on the front page they are still spilling over into other threads with their messianic message.

In this thread today too

http://www.housepric...dpost&p=3063703

The goldbugs kept on asking for their own thread on the main forum and when they get it they don't use it -- they continue to gold ramp on other threads.

Why ? We all know very well who has gold -- they've told us often enough.

Why do they have to indulge in chest beating and telling us how clever they have been to hold gold.? Who cares?

same reason properdie speculators attend dinner parties

[Unexpected]

You are so right TMT. This is a HPC forum but even though the moderators set up a thread for the goldbugs to post in on the front page they are still spilling over into other threads with their messianic message.

In this thread today too

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=166991&view=findpost&p=3063703

The goldbugs kept on asking for their own thread on the main forum and when they get it they don't use it -- they continue to gold ramp on other threads.

Why ? We all know very well who has gold -- they've told us often enough.

Why do they have to indulge in chest beating and telling us how clever they have been to hold gold.? Who cares?

Its strange how there's a lack of goldbugs on that thread. I read the thread and it seemed mostly full of gold bears and neithers.

[aa3]

In a purely monetary problem.. where the value of the money changes anything real is good.. holds its value. Whether its land, commercial real estate, commodities, equities.

The nominal investments, the savings, annuities, pensions, bonds, get annihilated. And we're just about there for a wipe out of the bond market. Its an idiotic bull market in bonds. A NASDAQ in the year 2000 like peak.

Go back to when Argentina blew up. Anyone holding anything real was completely fine. A few months after the crisis the economy was back to normal, just numbers in accounts were different. The poor people in the nominal investments lost everything.

The people with massive debts, were smiling ear to ear. Like think about the people who were in deep on debt with a series of commercial buildings. The inflation wiped all that debt out for them, but they got to keep the buildings.

[nmarks]

Chr!st! BBC just hinted at this story.... for 10 seconds!!! Then onto the Amy Whinehouse story. Unbelievable!!!!!!!!

I mean SERIOUSLY! Europe and America about to default and we get Amy Winehouse on BBC News with sad looks from the presenters?

What sort of a joke is this!?

You have to understand that the media are just complying with their masters' demands: its called mushroom management: keep the plebs in the dark and feed them on manure.

This is precisely why the tabloids are so full of celebrity tittle-tattle. Roman Emporers used to pull the same trick using gladiators as the distraction instead.

[crash2006]

If they do no default the 14.5 trillion will be 21 trillion before you can say "Holy debt Batman!"... but I can't see a default happening as much as I would like to see it... and think thy should...

the worse thing is when people start to realise they've been working for free.

[mfp123]

You are so right TMT. This is a HPC forum but even though the moderators set up a thread for the goldbugs to post in on the front page they are still spilling over into other threads with their messianic message.

In this thread today too

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=166991&view=findpost&p=3063703

The goldbugs kept on asking for their own thread on the main forum and when they get it they don't use it -- they continue to gold ramp on other threads.

Why ? We all know very well who has gold -- they've told us often enough.

Why do they have to indulge in chest beating and telling us how clever they have been to hold gold.? Who cares?

its not about gold ramping. the issue is what do you expect to happen if the US defaults, and the answer is that there would be alot of turmoil.

the US is seen as a safe haven and if that disappears, people will turn to gold in times of fear and volatility. gold in this case is not being talked about investment returns, its about protection, and by and large its position as the neutral asset.

it is wholly relevant in a discussion about a US default in bonds.

Edited July 24, 2011 by mfp123

[The Masked Tulip]

Go back to when Argentina blew up. Anyone holding anything real was completely fine. A few months after the crisis the economy was back to normal, just numbers in accounts were different. The poor people in the nominal investments lost everything.

That is my worry I admit. It is also why I know some HPCers have bought houses even though they believe prices will fall.

The problem with the UK is that there are so many seriously rich people with cash... But perhaps they will get preferential treatment in any such crisis.

Edited July 24, 2011 by The Masked Tulip

[_w_]

Its strange how there's a lack of goldbugs on that thread. I read the thread and it seemed mostly full of gold bears and neithers.

Not gold bears, 'goldbug bashers'. It's like an obsession and _does_ kill threads.

[dances with sheeple]

I gamble on the AIM market, as too old now for steady growth.

I've invested heavily in Sound OIL (SOU). They are about to produce revenue from Marciano gas field in Italy. They have 9 more licences to drill known oil/gas fields in Italy. But, they also have a 5% share in Kalimantan in Indonesia. This is a truely massive gas field owned by Salamander Energy. The 5% alone is worth £5.6 Million to Sound.

The company has a billion dollar upside. But...the original investor was RAB capital. RAB are going bust, so RAB have been ditching their SOU shares in massive numbers. It has forced the price down to 3.2p. Once RAB have fully unloaded, this share will go North, particularly with so much news to be announced. I've close to a million shares in this one, and I hope it will be a multi-bagger.

Sound Presentation

I'll get out of sound when it hits 30p.

The other one worth looking at is Clontarf Energy. (CLON). They have been awarded a licence in Ghana, next to a known massive oil field. The shares are 5p each, but if they hit the black stuff could go to £2.50 / £3.00 each fast. This is much higher risk than Sound.

If the Yanks default, both these shares will slump(Along with all the others!), and would be worth buying, because they will bounce back. - imho.

But....AIM is not for everyone. You need to do your own research.

Thanks, might just look into these.

[Take Me Back To London!]

Fair enough but we don't need to listen to posts about personal holdings of gold and how everyone should have some as nauseum. It's the personal messianic message that is irritating not the global situation.

I feel the same about the tedium of posts extolling the virtues of paper money and that gold is in a bubble. How much worse do things need to get to switch, in part or full, out of paper fiat promises backed by debt into premier reserve currency?

[Bruce Banner]

I feel the same about the tedium of posts extolling the virtues of paper money and that gold is in a bubble. How much worse do things need to get to switch, in part or full, out of paper fiat promises backed by debt into premier reserve currency?

But you only see those in response to yet another 'buy gold' post. The gold ramping is extremely tedious.