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Deckard

The Eu's New "marshall Plan" For The Piigs

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The details are still rather sketchy, but the thrust of it is outlined here

Real time updates available on Eurozone debt crisis summit live

IMO, the key point is this

4. We call for a comprehensive strategy for growth and investment in Greece. Structural funds should be re-allocated for competitiveness and growth under a European "Marshall Plan". MemberStates and the Commission will mobilize all resources necessary in order to provide exceptional technical assistance to help Greece implement its reforms.

How are they planning to do that, exactly? apart from printy, printy of course :rolleyes:

EDIT to add: here are Goldman's initial comments

Edited by Deckard

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4. We call for a comprehensive strategy for growth and investment in Greece. Structural funds should be re-allocated for competitiveness and growth under a European "Marshall marshmallow Plan". MemberStates and the Commission will mobilize all resources necessary in order to provide exceptional technical assistance to help Greece implement its reforms.

Corrected the spelling

placed on the end of a shi**y stick until toast. seems apt.

Edited by timebandit

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Paul Mason:

Snap analysis of EZ draft: 1) The rollover is not so important as the halving of interest rates for GR, P, IE - fiscal transfer #1

#ezdraft 2) It may still trigger selective default; 3) ECB has been humbled - soon it has to accept junk as collateral

#ezdraft 4) None of this solves Greek spiral into austerity unless "Marshall Plan" means what it says: big fiscal transfer to Greece

#ezdraft 5) EFSF can now recapitalise banks "in non program countries" - Germany just voted to allow itself a closet nationalisation of LBs?

#ezdraft 6) Mucho mumbo jumbo about fiscal consolidation. Oh yes, by 2012 EZ will be fiscal union whose bonds will be, rated by, er itself.

#ezdraft: 6) Europe just voted for yet more austerity in its northern core, but alleviated depression scenario in GR, P, IE, I, ES

#ezdraft 7) the diplo aspect... Merkel wins, Trichet stuffed, Venizelos comes out looking good; ditto Noonan. Berlusconi ...

#ezdraft 7)cont... Berlusconi returns triumphally to Rome: "Hey we got bailed out just like Greece!" without asking...

#ezdraft 8) Will it work? Only if in draft pt 5 the "financial sector" agrees to regard voluntary selective default.

#ezdraft: 9) And the basic problem remains low growth and competitiveness of peripheral Europe... and finally...

(not sure what happened to number 3)

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The markets are rising on what appears to be just another kicking the can down the road policy.

Even Nokia, who announced some pretty dire quarterly results today, has shot up.

Is it all:

1. Nuts

2. Rigged

3. Um...

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The folks at ZH are openly tagging the proposal as off-balance sheet QE , but then again they would, wouldn't they?

Personally, I think the conditions attached to secondary market purchases by the EFSF sound rather restrictive...

7. To improve the effectiveness of the EFSF and address contagion, we agree to increase the flexibility of the EFSF, allowing it to:

- intervene on the basis of a precautionary programme, with adequate conditionality;

- finance recapitalisation of financial institutions through loans to governments including in non programme countries;

- intervene in the secondary markets on the basis of an ECB analysis recognizing the existence of exceptional circumstances and a unanimous decision of the EFSF Member States.

At this stage, I'm more inclined to think that the whole draft proposal, and the "marshall plan" in particular, are just more noise, empty promises that will result once again in endless squabbles between Germany, France and the ECB, and are unlikely to ever be implemented.

Edited by Deckard

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So the plan is that the ECB buys PIGS government bonds with freshly printed QE cash

No haircuts for banks that own government bonds of PIGS

Have I got this right?

Has the ECB agreed to issue new pan-European government bonds, i.e. bond interest paid from taxes paid by Finns, Germans, French etc? - swapping these for dodgy PIGS bonds?

What does EFSF stand for?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14239794

Have been 'reading' about the 'debt deal' on the bbc site.

The title of the 'article' is ' Global shares jump on reports of Eurozone debt deal'. I had a look at the FTSE etc...FTSE up 40 France/Germany up 60 points??? US up 100? Hardly a jump!! Only the banks which have really responded to this.

Secondly... respect to whichever of you uber-bears are commenting on the story. Some VERY negative sentiment. Refreshing for the BBC to even allow such comments. Government editors must be napping ahead of the summer recess.

('quotes indicate pessimism!')

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Great an entire thread discussing political waffle.

There is no plan, the debts are too big it's just bo11ock to keep the share price up and the Euro up for a bit longer.

:lol: I don't disagree, mate.

A bit cheeky of you though, to criticize others for posting waffle :P

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Latest developments:

• Greece to get a new refinancing package of €109bn

• €37bn of second bail-out to come from the private sector

• Sarkozy says extending maturities is not a partial default

EDIT: follow the press conference live here

JCT clutching to straws to deflect questions on whether or not this constitutes a Greek default.

"go ask the banks" he said "they decided to participate, voluntarily"

Comedy gold :D

Edited by Deckard

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What does EFSF stand for?

The ESRB is part of the European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS), the purpose of which is to ensure supervision of the Union's financial system. Besides the ESRB, the ESFS comprises: the European Banking Authority (EBA); the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA); the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA); the Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs); and the competent or supervisory authorities in the Member States as specified in the legislation establishing the three ESAs.

The ESRB contributes to the prevention or mitigation of systemic risks to financial stability in the Union that arise from developments within the financial system. It takes into account macroeconomic developments, so as to avoid periods of widespread financial distress. The ESRB also contributes to the smooth functioning of the internal market and thereby ensures a sustainable contribution of the financial sector to economic growth.

The Chair of the ESRB is the President of the European Central Bank, Mr Jean-Claude Trichet. The first Vice-Chair of the ESRB is Sir Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England. He was elected by the members of the General Council of the ECB on 16 December 2010 for five years. The second Vice-Chair of the ESRB will be the Chair of the Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/esrb.htm

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:lol: I don't disagree, mate.

A bit cheeky of you though, to criticize others for posting waffle :P

Sorry couldn't resist, I posted earlier today we could only expect waffle from this meeting ie to help boost the markets and this is what we've got.

And then this thread starts to discuss a plan that will never happen. :P:P

Although I do quite like a waffle. :lol::lol:

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The Germans are going to go in and run the factories. We could do with that here.

Biggest myth ever.

Funnily enough I'm off to start a troubleshooting process at an underperforming German factory next week.

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Final version on the EU statement

Apart from confirming Greek bailout 2.0, there's plenty of reciprocal back slapping for the austerity measures already implemented, plus some fluff on how Greece will be helped to get back on its feet.

More taxpayer money down the drain, more trouble ahead for the PIIGS.

Jolly good :rolleyes:

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Nice live blog from the Telegraph.linky

This caught my eye. Looks like the commentators spotted Mervyn King at the cricket today. Boycott sent this note!! didn't realise he posted here!

cricket-note_1952355c.jpg

which says:-

Free enterprise doesn't work when private companies take the profits. Yet we the public pay for their losses. How is that right? I say put them all in jail. Geoff Boycott

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One question this brings up to me is do the EUrocrats understand what the economy is based on. They seem to be taking a step in actually learning what it is. Its the factories, power plants, mines, refineries, chemical plants, etc..

Aka the big stuff that produces on an industrial scale. Supporting industrial world standards of living.

In Britian you often hear debate about the marginal tax rate or the interest rates.. but almost no debate on industrial development in the country.

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Saw this waffle being discussed this morning on the BBC.

In summary they've financed Greece for 4-5 years (I should add they hope), so basically they've kicked the can down the road again. On top of this they still don't expect Greece to pay the money back and they might have to bailout the Portugal / Ireland again then there's still Spain/Italy.

So basically we are in no better position but the markets love it. You just can't beat short termism.

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Politics within a democracy has always been about one thing: making sure the sh1t does not hit the fan when you are in power. So the can will always be kicked down the road in the hope that the road runs out on somebody else's shift. That is why there are occasionally "good elections to lose" (e.g. 1992, 2010 in the UK) - the shit has piled up so high that it doesn't matter who is power - they are phucked.

The EU is slightly different in that politicians have an even better escape route before the sh1t hits the fan: the EU itself, where they can't be touched by democracy. For example, it really wouldn't surprise me if the current eurozone leaders give all their respective countries' sovereignty to a new eurozone state, get voted out back home, only to land themselves powerful jobs within the EU (like Kinnock did for example) and where they don't need to worry about those damned electorates.

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Saw this waffle being discussed this morning on the BBC.

In summary they've financed Greece for 4-5 years (I should add they hope), so basically they've kicked the can down the road again. On top of this they still don't expect Greece to pay the money back and they might have to bailout the Portugal / Ireland again then there's still Spain/Italy.

So basically we are in no better position but the markets love it. You just can't beat short termism.

I think you're completely wrong and missing the point entirely.

They're establishing a Eurobond via the EFSF mechanism.

They're establishing the principle of a fiscal union.

They're establishing the principle of fiscal transfers from the core to the periphery in exchange for greater political/fiscal control.

They're putting in place all the building blocks for a Greater Germany.

Nobody has voted for this. Germany has used its recycled savings and control over the ECB to subjugate the PIIGS without the need to resort to its historical methods. If it's a Marshall plan then one has to ask what war has just been fought and who are the victors and the vanquished.

Can kicking in this instance will result in a very different outcome if this all goes ahead.

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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