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Monthly Residential Property Transactions

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HMRC has today updated its residential property transactions record, giving provisional numbers for June 2011. It appears that substantial revisions to the dataset have been made, creating a smoother seasonally adjusted series.

Seasonally adjusted transactions for June 2011 were 65K, down from 76K in June 2010 – a substantial drop of 14.5%. Transactions have been on a slight downward trend over the past year, but the image given by the last couple of months' figures is that of a lifeless housing market which is now heading even further into the doldrums.

Assuming the numbers are reasonably accurate, I don't think this can be totally attributed to lack of mortgage availability as it was back in late 2008/early 2009. More likely we're seeing the inevitable results of the current Mexican standoff between vendors and buyers.

hmrctrans0611.gif

Data: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_prop/menu.htm

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its a seasonally adjusted 0C today, here in Colchester.

Any idea what REALITY is providing with actual figures?

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More likely we're seeing the inevitable results of the current Mexican standoff between vendors and buyers.

Only one Mexican. The other one's gone home and taken his gun with him...

Everybody said they’d stand behind me

When the game got rough

But the joke was on me

There was nobody even there to bluff

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Table 16.5 at the link in the OP.

thanks, I looked at that and note 1 says its for ALL property transactions...not just residential....

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its a seasonally adjusted 0C today, here in Colchester.

Any idea what REALITY is providing with actual figures?

The year-on-year NSA drop was 14.1% (and since the figures are rounded to the nearest thousand there may well be no difference between SA and NSA).

...and I can't for the life of me understand your objection to seasonal adjustment. Presumably you'd look at the rise in NSA transactions from 68K in May to 73K in June and think the housing market's picking up?

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The year-on-year NSA drop was 14.1% (and since the figures are rounded to the nearest thousand there may well be no difference between SA and NSA).

...and I can't for the life of me understand your objection to seasonal adjustment. Presumably you'd look at the rise in NSA transactions from 68K in May to 73K in June and think the housing market's picking up?

Surely a YoY figure should need no SA?

I agree, seasonal adjustments are essential to any housing market figures as it's such a seasonal market. Without SA you would have no idea whether rising sales/prices are a sign of an improving market or actually a sign of a deteriorating market as your May example shows.

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Surely a YoY figure should need no SA?

I agree, seasonal adjustments are essential to any housing market figures as it's such a seasonal market. Without SA you would have no idea whether rising sales/prices are a sign of an improving market or actually a sign of a deteriorating market as your May example shows.

Case in point - Rightmove's Asking Price Index which is not SA and unsurprisingly has risen throughout the Spring Bounce.

However, SA does allow fudging of figures to fit wider aims (ie, ramping).

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I'm not sure it is a 'lack' of mortgage availability as such. I think what we see is a tightening of criteria at the bottom end and potentially an increase in costs for them as banks move to be more competitive at the top end. Overall, this means fewer can secure mortgages.

I believe in the usa only 55% of the population can now secure mortgages whilst homeownership is around 66%. I guess a similar situation has arisen here.

In Bernanke's book on the Great Depression there is a nice table showing this phenomenon then in the USA. It wasn't necessarily a lack of funds, it was the criteria for the worse credit risks tightening and the rates rising for them that triggered much of the problems.

Yes, this is a good point and I think what you're saying can be seen in the most recent housing stats released by the Scottish Government. The figures only go up to Q4 2010, but it's noticeable how the average recorded income on mortgage completions has continued to rise since the market peaked.

scots_stats_0511.gif

Data: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Housing-Regeneration/HSfS/KeyInfoTables

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The year-on-year NSA drop was 14.1% (and since the figures are rounded to the nearest thousand there may well be no difference between SA and NSA).

...and I can't for the life of me understand your objection to seasonal adjustment. Presumably you'd look at the rise in NSA transactions from 68K in May to 73K in June and think the housing market's picking up?

no objection as long as its clear. as I say, its a steady 0C seasonally adjusted here. that tells me nothing about the actual temperature.

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  • 309 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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